Andreas Rüesch – nzz.com Oct 30, 2025

In the battle for the city of Pokrovsk, Ukraine’s military has held out for more than a year. But the situation in this eastern Ukrainian stronghold is now becoming increasingly serious. A week ago, a video that showed Ukrainian soldiers coming under gunfire inside the city for the first time caused a stir. Small teams of Russians had managed to break into the city from the recently captured southwestern suburb of Zvirove, and had prepared an ambush.

The true storm has not yet broken. If anything, this was only a precursor. But the situation is coming to a head, because the Russians are simultaneously advancing from the east, increasingly encircling what was once an important transport hub. Last Friday, the attackers hoisted their flags in the suburb of Novoekonomichne, including in front of a bombed-out Orthodox church.

The small Kazennyi Torets river had long served as a natural barrier contributing to the area’s defense. But further north, too, the Russians have managed to cross these waters. Over the course of July, they have advanced more than 10 kilometers – an unusually fast pace in this war. Russian troops have now reached a position near the village of Rodynske and its coal mine, which has served as a defensive position for the Ukrainians. From there, the attackers can now also fire on Pokrovsk from the north, and can additionally threaten the Ukrainian forces’ northern escape route.

Supply routes still open

Although the Russians are tightening their encirclement of Pokrovsk, this does not necessarily mean the city will fall soon. The two main supply routes currently remain open. In principle, the Ukrainians could put up a tough defensive fight against the Russians in the city’s urban terrain. But they would be in an unfavorable position given the extensive encirclement, as has been pointed out by Ukrainian military observer Konstantin Mashovets, among others. Other experts have warned against seeking to defend the city at excessive cost for reasons of prestige, and against sending fresh troops into a battle doomed to be lost.

However, as previous battles have shown, political considerations often trump purely military concerns in such cases. For President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who triggered a crisis last week with his failed reform of Ukraine’s anti-corruption bodies, bad news from the front would be particularly unwelcome.

Given the size of the city, the loss of Pokrovsk would be the most significant military setback in 2 1/4 years, since the Ukrainians were forced to withdraw from Bakhmut. With its preinvasion population of 60,000, Pokrovsk was never a big city. However, during the first three years of the war, it served as a military hub. Since becoming surrounded on three sides, Pokrovsk has lost this significance. Today, it is almost a ghost town, where, according to the regional governor, only about 1,380 civilians have remained alongside the military units positioned there. Just how precarious the situation has become can be seen in the fact that volunteer groups have stopped bringing aid supplies to the city because of the persistent danger to their own lives.

Only a few civilians have refused to comply with evacuation orders, and are hunkering down in cellars, like this woman.

Pokrovsk has long fulfilled its role as a bulwark effectively. On the direct line of attack from the east, the Russians have advanced only 12 kilometers within the last year. For this reason, Moscow’s strategists clearly decided early on to advance around the city’s flanks. But even when they attempted to bypass the city to the southwest, they got stuck over the winter. Thanks to superior drone technology, the Ukrainians were able to set up a death strip several kilometers wide along the front line. The invaders have hardly been able to move in this area without being attacked by combat drones.

However, the Russians slowly managed to turn the tide with their spring offensive. One of the reasons for this success has been their growing numerical superiority. According to Ukrainian sources, Moscow’s forces now have around 110,000 troops in the Pokrovsk area. That is an estimate, but it is undisputed that the Kremlin is prioritizing the Pokrovsk offensive over all other sections of the front.

Moscow brings in reinforcements

In May, Russia’s «Center» joint group of forces, which is responsible for the front in the Pokrovsk area, also received a new commander, the ambitious Gen. Valery Solodchuk. He commands three field armies as well as other units. After losing an estimated tens of thousands of men during the yearlong battle, he has now managed to obtain significant reinforcements for the forces under his command. For example, Russia’s 51st Combined Arms Army, a large unit newly formed during the course of the war, has joined the fighting in the northeast of Pokrovsk. It consists mainly of battle-hardened units of soldiers from the occupied parts of the Ukrainian province of Donetsk.

Ukrainian military sources also report a change since the secretive Russian drone unit Rubikon has become active in the Pokrovsk area. This group was previously deployed in the Russian border province of Kursk, where it made a name for itself by successfully disrupting Ukrainian supply lines. It appears that with Rubikon, Russia is professionalizing its drone warfare capacities, and has made up for its previous inferiority in this area.

This has included systematic attacks on Ukrainian drone pilots. For example, a recently published video depicted a Russian combat drone destroying a suspected Ukrainian drone base near Pokrovsk. However, the Ukrainians have also continued to use their drones very successfully for defense purposes. Video footage from the southern outskirts of the city illustrate how Russian vehicles attacking over open terrain can very quickly fall victim to Ukrainian exploding drones and bomber drones.

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