Sam Clark – Politico Dec 29, 2024

Moscow’s campaign of hybrid warfare against NATO countries is getting close to the point of causing “substantial” casualties, a senior official at the defense alliance warned.

“What really worries me is that one of these attacks … will break through in a big way,” James Appathurai, the military alliance’s deputy assistant secretary general and head of hybrid and cyber threats, told Sky News in an interview published Sunday.

“There is a real prospect of one of these attacks causing substantial numbers of casualties or very substantial economic damage,” Appathurai said.

Since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has ramped up its campaign of so-called hybrid attacks — such as arson, cyber and information campaigns, or sabotage — throughout Europe.

Recent examples include the alleged cutting of energy and communications cables in the Baltic Sea, which German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius described as “sabotage.” In that case, as in many other examples of hybrid attacks, it is difficult for governments to quickly and definitively attribute the attacks to Moscow.

Pistorius warned earlier this month about the threat Russian President Vladimir Putin poses. “Putin is engaging in hybrid attacks, and Germany is particularly in focus,” Pistorius said in an interview with the Funke media group.

“He knows us well; Putin knows how to make pinpricks in us,” Pistorius said. “Ignoring this threat because it makes us uncomfortable will not make it smaller but rather larger,” he added.

Nordic countries have been on high alert due to warnings from European intelligence agencies about potential Russian sabotage of power cables, wind turbines and gas pipelines.

The number of these types of attacks has reached a level that would previously have been considered “utterly unacceptable,” NATO’s Appathurai said. “We can definitely count dozens. Up to 100 for sure. But then there’s a lot of foiled plots,” he said.

Andriy Yermak, head of Ukraine’s presidential office, warned on Sunday that Russia may escalate its hybrid warfare tactics beyond sabotage of European infrastructure.

“It is worth considering the risks of hybrid threats appearing on the borders,” Yermak wrote in a post on Telegram. “The shadow fleet that sabotages cables may not be the only such threat from the Russian Federation.”

NATO is updating its strategy on hybrid warfare, first written in 2015, so it can be clearer about what type of attacks would trigger a full-scale military response.

“What we need to do now is be clearer among ourselves and then decide how we communicate that also to the Russians, that there are no-go areas,” Appathurai said.

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