Leohohmann.com – April 4, 2024
This guest post by Jim Rickards is spot on in its analysis of the Russia-Ukraine war and its potential to explode into something much bigger. He spells out the falsehoods embedded in the Western position toward Russia and why the continued pushing of this false narrative cannot have a good outcome. Either someone with sound logic steps up or we are heading up the escalation ladder to a point of no return, and that will bringc catastrophic consequences to the people of the West — you and me.
By Jim Rickards, at The Daily Reckoning
A lot of people seem to have forgotten about the war in Ukraine. That’s a mistake.
Russia is slowly but steadily defeating Ukraine, which is becoming increasingly obvious to everyone except the most anti-Russian diehards.
That’s leading to desperation in elite Western circles determined to stop Russia one way or the other. In their minds, they simply can’t let Putin win. They think that if Putin wins in Ukraine, he’ll next move on to the Baltic states, Poland and elsewhere.
You know the West is getting desperate based on recent threats by France’s Emmanuel Macron to send troops to Ukraine.
The vice president of the Russia Duma, Pyotr Tolstoy (descendant of the great Russian writer Leo Tolstoy), warned that French troops would be priority targets for Russian forces if they entered Ukraine.
Even though France would send troops independent of NATO, that puts us on a very dangerous path that ultimately leads to direct conflict between NATO and Russia. And that path ends, ultimately, in nuclear war.
Tolstoy added that it would take “just two minutes to nuke Paris.” It’s not hard to envision how quickly things could escalate if France decided to send troops to Ukraine.
More Escalation
Meanwhile, NATO is preparing to send F-16s to Ukraine. Airfields in Ukraine are highly vulnerable to Russian attack, especially since Ukraine’s air defenses are heavily depleted at this point and the Russian air force is becoming increasingly active in Ukraine.
But if NATO allows the F-16s to be based on its own airbases, Putin has warned that these airfields would become a “legitimate target” if strikes against Russian forces were launched from them.
By the way, Russia has hypersonic missiles that NATO has no practical ability to shoot down, so these attacks would likely be successful. Of course, NATO would have to retaliate in kind. You can imagine where all this could lead.
We’re already well along the escalation ladder. And the higher you go, the more face you stand to lose if you back down. I warned about that from the outset of the war.
But the entire notion that Russia poses some existential threat to NATO or Europe is absurd.
Putin Has Nothing to Gain and Everything to Lose
First off, the theory that Putin will invade other countries if he wins in Ukraine is nonsense. The Russian army lacks the men and materiel to occupy Ukraine while simultaneously invading other countries.
This isn’t the Soviet Union with its massive tank armies poised to roll over Western Europe. And Soviet communism is long dead, so there’s no ideological basis for Russia to invade Europe. These days Russia is a conservative, Orthodox Christian nation.
But more importantly, Putin has absolutely no incentive to invade any of these nations, which are NATO members. What do they have that he wants?
All it would do is trigger Article 5 of the NATO Charter, which stipulates that an attack on one member is an attack on all, inviting a massive NATO response. At that point, you’re on the fast track to nuclear war.
Putin is fully aware of that.
Fearmongers like to point to what Putin once said in a speech: “Whoever doesn’t miss the Soviet Union doesn’t have a heart.”
They take that as proof that he wants to recreate the Soviet Union. But they conveniently omit what he said next:
“Whoever wants it back doesn’t have a brain.”
Whatever you think of Putin, he definitely has a brain. He has no intention to restore the Soviet Union.
It’s Not Just About Intentions
But like any great power, Russia has interests, and Ukraine has always been a vital strategic interest to Russia.
And Russia is not going to tolerate Ukraine joining a NATO alliance that’s hostile to Russia. Critics say Ukraine is a free and independent nation that can join NATO if it wants. Russia has no say in the matter, even though Ukraine borders Russia.
Well, I guess they never heard of the Monroe Doctrine. The U.S. basically declared the entire Western hemisphere its own domain. But a great power like Russia can’t have a say in its own backyard?
Critics also say that the idea of NATO invading Russia is ridiculous. That’s just Russian paranoia. And that’s true, NATO isn’t going to actually invade Russia. But it’s not just intentions that count in the world of geopolitics. It’s also capabilities.
As Bismarck once noted: “What matters in politics is capabilities, not intentions. Intentions change, capabilities remain.”
Given Russia’s long history of being invaded, it’s not hard to imagine why it might seem a bit paranoid of exterior threats.
If you look at a map, parts of Ukraine are actually east of Moscow.
Will the U.S. Keep the War Going?
Of course, Ukraine can’t continue fighting without U.S. assistance. The Biden White House wants $60 billion of new money to give to Ukraine to fight the war. This is on top of several hundred billion already provided.
This was proposed last summer but has stalled in the Senate and House of Representatives ever since. The House passed a separate bill to aid Israel last fall, but the Senate refused to take it up because they want to tie that aid to money for Ukraine.
The Senate passed a bill that would provide aid for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan in one package combined with some money for phony border security.
That bill was so unpopular it could not even make it out of the Senate. Then the House insisted on passing regular appropriations before considering Ukraine.
That process was completed on March 23, but now Congress is on a two-week Easter recess so nothing further will happen until mid-April. No one has even answered the most important question, which is what would Ukraine do with the money.
They can’t buy badly needed 155mm artillery shells because the Western arsenals are bare and factories are not geared to make more than a handful. It will take years to expand that manufacturing capacity.
You can walk into a store with a wallet full of $100 bills, but if the shelves are empty, it doesn’t do you any good. The products simply aren’t there.
Meanwhile, wonder weapons from the West such as tanks, cruise missiles, armored personnel carriers, HIMARS precision-guided artillery and anti-missile batteries have all been destroyed, disabled or shot down by Russia.
The war in Ukraine hasn’t been good advertising for Western weapons.
Fallout
To repeat what I said earlier, Ukraine is losing the war badly. Russia is advancing on the southern and eastern fronts in Ukraine.
Still, the pressure on House Speaker Mike Johnson to do something remains. The Republican warmongers in the Senate like Lindsey Graham and Joni Ernst won’t let up. Many Republicans in the House such as Chip Roy and Marjorie Taylor Greene are opposed to Johnson on this.
Incredibly, Johnson may respond to the pressure with a solution worse than an outright appropriation. He may get behind efforts to steal $300 billion in Russian central bank assets held in the form of U.S. Treasury securities.
That would destroy confidence in the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasury securities and the U.S. rule of law. Russia would quickly recover the loss by seizing $300 billion or more of Western assets still in Russia. No one in Congress seems to understand any of this.
If they follow through, the economic fallout would be bad enough. But if this war doesn’t stop soon, we could ultimately be looking at nuclear fallout.
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I’ve been saying this: “What do they have that he wants?”
Most of this is right, but it doesn’t cover why the City Crime Cartels & Wall Mobs wants this war, or Russia to collapse.
Rickards is an economist and finance guru, but he says nothing about the Nazi Wests impending financial doom with Japan teetering on the brink of financial collapse. So he’s only giving half the story. I wonder why that is?
Just as NATO members are divided, so is their core strategies, or lack of them.
Virtually all the pundits said UKraine was done, it’s over. I cautioned against this. I am not saying NATO will fight Russia back, and out of Crimea. That won’t happen, but as Rickards points out, this end phase in UKraine, could become something much bigger.
Again, as I’ve been saying, and as Rickards points out, Paris nuked in two minutes, and likely that, by weapons the French won’t even know about until Paris is glowing green. My point, we won’t have any notice before they start firing nukes, and I still hold the view Russia will fire first, and on balance, Putin won’t be giving the fire orders, but we will never know this, as life will be over.
I don’t don’t know why MacGregor says 60 days for Biden, so that would give Two Cells Harris 5 months to get US boots in UKraine, because the table needs to be set before Trump or some other sits behind the White House Oval Office desk. They must inherit the game.
Absolutely correct – the only quibble I would quibble here is this :-
‘. These days Russia is a conservative, Orthodox Christian nation.’
No no NO!
It is Real Deal Christianity in the Collective SPIRITUAL and therefore truly Moral sense.
This translates into the Physical Realm, Russia winning WW3 if things comes to that Pass.
And there is no shortage of Prophecy concerning Russia’s Destined Role.
Virtually no one I mention this to takes all that stuff seriously, and this is how it should be.
It wouldn’t be Prophecy otherwise, would it?
No one believed Cassandra, and as the Good Lord Himself pointed out ‘A Prophet is without honour in his own Land’
Time for an Ephesians 6:12, I think –
‘For we wrestle not against flesh and blood, but against principalities, against powers, against the rulers of the darkness of this world, against spiritual wickedness in high places.’
. . well, I know George Soros is flesh and blood, but I think the gist is pretty clear –
the entire Ukraine is just a bloody money scam to sell old used weapons and kill off mercenaries. Jews do it constantly. NO MORE Jews in the USA or the US government NONE!
What is never mentioned is “Would Russia stand alone against NATO if attacked?”
of the 190 nations, 150 are solidly, but quietly, behind Putin.
Do you think that Iran would not annihilate US bases in the ME if Putin asked?
Do you think that the Arab nations will not turn Israel into a facsimile of Gaza City if the US were busy, tied up elsewhere?
The UK and 80% of the EU would be politically dead in a week if they actually wanted to send forces against Russia. Argentine could walk into the Falklands tomorrow and the UK would not lift a finger. They can’t they have no ships capable of sailing that far and no ammunition for more than a week of conflict. France has been thrown out of 6 African countries for heavens sake without a murmur.
China has always kept itself ‘at home’ and has no imperial dreams, Tibet and Formosa (Taiwan) are and historically have been part of China, what do you think would happen if Xi decided to become militarily involved?
He can put troops and weapons into Europe in days with High Speed rail, US will take months and then they won’t work.
Morons all of NATO are morons.
Macrone is a hysterical femen a whimp + never reaches
the qualities of Miterant (not to speak DeGaule) . he even
runs away from his protesting farmers .
the only leader of quality in europa is Putin ! the estern
putos y putas are political dirt !
russias only weakness are its own jews ! they are not to
trust like our jews in the west !
Macrone is a hysterical femen a whimp + never reaches
the qualities of Miterant (not to speak DeGaule) . he even
runs away from his protesting farmers .
the only leader of quality in europa is Putin ! the western
putos y putas are political dirt !
russias only weakness are its own jews ! they are not to
trust like our jews in the west !
Just as you don’t have to put a hundred bullets in a body to kill someone when a few well-placed shots will do it, so it will be with western establishments. In Britain that would be 10 Downing Street and Whitehall and in the US the White House and Pentagon. Same for Europe. People still need to administer their new government from somewhere so leave Parliament and the Capitol Building standing, but to drive home to the establishment the hopelessness of their situation and how things are about to change now, take out their Officer Training schools and big supply depots, a few ports and airports to end our participation in war.
Missiles and drones have changed things. New ways are possible.
“Well, I guess they never heard of the Monroe Doctrine. The U.S. basically declared the entire Western hemisphere its own domain.”
That’s only half of the Monroe Doctrine. The whole is that US won’t allow European powers influence in the Americas, and that the US will not seek influence in Europe. That went down the toilet when the US entered WWI, then doubled down during WWII.
As for Ukraine, Lenin didn’t consult the population in the Russian oblasts/ Soviet Republics added to the Austro-Hungarian territories gained post WWI, in which the Russian Civil War continued until 1922, nor did Khrushchev consult the population of the Peoples Republic of Crimea in 1954, when it was “added” to “Ukraine” for administrative purposes and remained semi-autonomous. The Ukrainian promise of an independence referendum in the early 1990’s was never fullfilled.
There’s no such thing as “orthodox Christian” because Catholicism is not Christianity.
Same with “Judeo-Christisn” – Jews are not Christians.
HELLO…
@ MM … while good in theory, the fact is that No. 10 and the Blight House are mere props on the stage, as the inhabitants polluting those buildings decide practically nothing. That’s not to say they still shouldn’t be targeted as they represent the highest levels of treason. Washingstein DC needs to be obliterated from end to end, with all those corrupt criminal scum in it. The Capitol needs to be incinerated into smouldering ruin, or 95% of the occupants anyway, same with Parliament. The federal cartels, they are not legitimate governments any longer and haven’t been for quite some time, have to be destroyed and/or dismantled…and everyone involved in the Federal Reserve and Bank of England chased through the streets, get the ever living piss beaten out of them, then hanged or disemboweled and strangled with their own intestines.
Chabad Vlad not only doesn’t have the balls to do what needs to be done, nor is he probably in any hurry to do the citizen-slaves of the Jewnited States and Jew-K that big a favor, he’s merely an actor playing his role in this pantomime shit-show of Goys Must Go, scripted, directed, and produced by Shlomo and the Satanic Tribe of Homicidal Maniacs.