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  6.  » Ukraine – The Power Scuffle Continues

Moon of Alabama – Feb 1, 2024

Armed Forces of Ukraine General Valeri Zaluzny (far right). Click to enlarge

The scuffle in Kiev over replacing the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine General Valeri Zaluzny continues.

CNN reports that he will be fired within the next 48 hours.

Zelensky set to announce dismissal of Ukraine’s top commander within days as rift grows over war, source says – CNN, Jan 31, 2024

This will not go down well with the electorate and, moreover, with the soldiers of the Ukrainian forces:

A poll published by the Kyiv Institute of Sociology in December found 88% of Ukrainians supported the top general. Zelensky’s approval rating, though also high, was considerably lower at 62%.

Or, as the Washington Post provides:

It is far from clear that any new commander will be able to improve Ukraine’s difficult situation on the battlefield without significantly more forces and weapons — precisely what Zaluzhny has demanded of Zelensky, adding tension to what was already a fraying relationship.

Zaluzhny’s popularity — both within the military and among ordinary citizens — makes his removal a political gamble for Zelensky. It also poses strategic risks at a time when Russia has intensified its attacks and Western security assistance for Kyiv has slowed. The general has built strong rapport with his Western counterparts and has often been able to advocate directly for certain materiel and seek counsel on battlefield strategy.
…
Both Budanov and Syrsky are considered favorites of Zelensky and Andriy Yermak, the chief of the presidential office and Zelensky’s closest adviser. Nearer the front, however, there seems to be little appetite for change.

“My personal opinion is you can’t do something like this right now — Zaluzhny is someone 80 percent of the military considers a good authority,” said Oleksandr, a battalion commander fighting in eastern Ukraine.

“For what is he being removed? It’s not clear. And who will replace him? Syrsky? God, I hope not. No one in the army likes Syrsky,” Oleksandr added.

The German boulevard broadsheet Bild names one of the plausible reasons for the current conflict:

The Bild publication writes that Zaluzhny wanted to withdraw troops from Avdiivka a few weeks ago, but Zelensky refused him this and on December 30 he personally went to the city to the front line to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces fighters.

So all the coffins that arrived from near Avdeevka to Ukraine since December 30 are solely on the conscience of Zelensky and his passion for narcissism.

Avdeevka is nearly surrounded and any attempts to hold onto it will cost many valuable lives of soldiers for no discernible advantage. But, just like with Bakhmut, Zelenski wants to hold on to the city to be be able point his western sponsors to some ‘successes’.

My hunch is that, after Monday’s kerfuffle in Kiev, the decision to fire Zaluzny was still hanging in balance.

The change now only happened after the noeconservative destroyer of Ukraine, Victoria Nuland, had landed in Kiev.

She made some awkward predictions:

Cont. reading: Ukraine – The Power Scuffle Continues