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Moon of Alabama – Dec 18, 2023

Gideon Rachman, often read columnist at the Financial Times, states the obvious:

Ukraine and its backers need a credible path to victory (archived) – Financial Times

Ukraine goes into the new year short of ammunition, money and diplomatic support. Underlying these critical shortages, there is another important deficiency. The country and its western backers no longer have a convincing theory of victory. Unless they can come up with one, western support for Ukraine will continue to waver.
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The fear now must be that while 2023 was the year of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, 2024 will be the year that Russia goes back on the attack. The worst-case scenarios are that, if western aid is cut off, Ukraine could be in serious trouble by the summer.
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Without a credible theory of victory, the pressure on Ukraine to negotiate with Russia will mount. The Ukrainians might make a deal — even if it involved making territorial concessions — if they had any confidence that Russia would stick to it. But Ukrainian officials can point to a litany of agreements that Putin has made and then broken. They believe that any cessation in the fighting would simply be used as an opportunity for Russia to rearm.

Rachman fails to list any of the agreements Russia is claimed to have broken. Does he mean the Minsk agreements which the Ukraine rejected to fulfill? Or is it the Russian–Ukrainian Friendship Treaty which Ukraine in 2019 refused to renew?

Unlike the U.S. and its proxies Russia usually sticks to its treaties and promises.

Cont. reading: The Total Defeat Of Ukraine Is Coming Into Sight