Moon of Alabama – Sept 14, 2023

Last year I mocked the media for claiming that ‘Russia is running out of’ whatever.

• How Russia, And Putin, Are Weaponizing, Losing And Running Out Of … Everything – June 3, 2022
• Russia Is Running Out Of [Whatever The Media Claim] – June 26, 2022
• Russia, Having ‘Run Out Of Missiles’, Launches Barrage On Ukraine – Oct 10, 2022

> Back in March I had warned that Lies Do Not Win Wars. Here is another practical example.

After allegedly having ‘run out of missiles’ and, more importantly, patience, the leadership of the Russian Federation decided to de-electrify Ukrainian cities with a ‘barrage of missile strikes’. <

Western military commentators have finally started to accept the obvious. Russia is winning and doing so by a large margin.

A similar turn can be seen in dearth of new ‘Russia is running out of’ stories which get now replaced by acknowledgements that Russia’s weapon industries are out-producing the West:

Russia Overcomes Sanctions to Expand Missile Production, Officials Say – NY Times
Moscow’s missile production now exceeds prewar levels, officials say, leaving Ukraine especially vulnerable this coming winter.

As a result of the sanctions, American officials estimate that Russia was forced to dramatically slow its production of missiles and other weaponry at the start of the war in February 2022 for at least six months. But by the end of 2022, Moscow’s military industrial manufacturing began to pick up speed again, American officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to disclose the sensitive assessment now concede.
…
Before the war, one senior Western defense official said, Russia could make 100 tanks a year; now they are producing 200.

Western officials also believe Russia is on track to manufacture two million artillery shells a year — double the amount Western intelligence services had initially estimated Russia could manufacture before the war.

As a result of the push, Russia is now producing more ammunition than the United States and Europe. Overall, Kusti Salm, a senior Estonian defense ministry official, estimated that Russia’s current ammunition production is seven times greater than that of the West.

Russia’s production costs are also far lower than the West’s, in part because Moscow is sacrificing safety and quality in its effort to build weapons more cheaply, Mr. Salm said. For instance, it costs a Western country $5,000 to $6,000 to make a 155-millimeter artillery round, whereas it costs Russia about $600 to produce a comparable 152-millimeter artillery shell, he said.

I believe that the numbers of current weapon production in Russia, which the New York Times cites, are too low. Consider that back in February the former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev spoke of an ‘exponential increase’ in weapon output:

Cont. reading: Russia Is Winning The Industrial Warfare Race