Stephen Bryen – Asia Times Sept 7, 2023
While the causes for war vary, inevitably a war becomes a testing ground for technology, battlefield tactics and strategy.
The war in Ukraine is no different, in fact, in some ways, it is a poster child for changes in modern warfare. Unfortunately for NATO, it is also a harbinger of bad news.
While it is perfectly true that Ukraine lacked suitable air power and should never have put itself in a position to be attacked by Russia, it did so mostly based on promises from NATO and particularly the United States.
The US and NATO offered massive military aid of US$100 billion and counting, amounting to an astonishing $100 million a day. Despite these huge sums, Ukraine has taken back little of the territory the Russians grabbed and, even more pertinently, has suffered huge manpower and equipment losses.
The above spending does not include decisions to increase defense spending at home. Poland, for example, just decided to buy new Patriot air defense systems at a cost of $15 billion and $12 billion worth of Apache attack helicopters from US defense contractor Boeing.
Germany is buying Israel’s Arrow Air defense system for $3.5 billion. Poland will spend 4% of its GDP on defense, far outpacing the other NATO countries other than the US. In fact, only 8 countries out of 30 meet the 2% GDP NATO spending target.
The one bright spot for NATO has been providing Ukraine with overhead surveillance and targeting information, some of it coming from drones and electronic aircraft operating over the Black Sea in international air space.
Offering this kind of help – thanks to Elon Musk’s Starlink capable of relaying target data, hooked up to commander’s smartphones – greatly improved the effectiveness of smart weapons such as HIMARS. At the same time, overhead surveillance made it possible to track Russian force movements and anticipate hot spots in ways impossible in the past.
Unfortunately, NATO will lose this advantage in a wider war where the Russians, or any other major adversary, will go out and destroy reconnaissance assets, even in international air space.
Despite NATO’s massive involvement in Ukraine, including on-the-ground special forces acting as advisors (as well as alleged mercenaries, many of whom are well-trained NATO soldiers), Russia has exercised considerable restraint against the overhead threat, not wanting to see the war spill over outside of Ukraine’s or Russia’s borders.
This vulnerability even applies to sophisticated satellites that are sitting ducks against Chinese or Russian satellite killers.
Wrecked Ukrainian tanks and armoured personnel carriers. Click to enlarge
Presumably, the US will try and do the same to Russia’s or China’s satellites. But this means that local surveillance and targeting, primarily with drones, will take center stage. Here the Russians have adapted rather well after starting the war with poor drone capabilities.
Russia evolved and networked its Orlan drones, which not only can see targets but can jam them. And Russia has introduced improved jamming capabilities to the battlespace.
While Ukraine also has some decent jamming systems, the Russians appear to be more practiced and proficient in this realm and have some new systems on the battlefield that have been effective.
It would seem the Russians learned a lot from the Nagorno-Karabakh war, where their jammers were overmatched, and have since adapted.
The Russians have learned how to defeat some smart weapons. For example, Russia’s defense ministry consistently reports having knocked out HIMARS missiles and defeated smart weapons and drones, often through jamming.
Today, NATO is poorly equipped to deal with drone swarms or even defend against medium- and long-range missiles. Some of this is due to misdirected spending, in which air defenses have been neglected or focused mainly on strategic nuclear threats.
But even here, air defense coverage in Europe is far from adequate. Moreover, what air defenses there are in NATO are not networked and not optimized to sort out threats and deal with the most lethal.
The US, for one, has very poor air defenses. It is critically deficient not only in coverage against ballistic missile threats but also tactically. The US has repeatedly stationed its troops in harm’s way with obsolete equipment defending against primitive missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in the hands of terrorist groups.
A great example is the US Army’s decision to reject an effective air defense system from Israel, the Iron Dome, which it could have deployed in Iraq to protect US bases and installations.
Instead, the US Army wanted to develop its “own” system, so the exposed troops will have to wait. Whether the army system will perform well in combat, once it is operational in a few years, no one knows.
To be sure, it will be vastly more expensive than taking an off-the-shelf system that demonstrably works, which suggests that the Pentagon spendthrifts are not really interested in soldier welfare. (It should also be noted that the US helped pay for Iron Dome’s R&D and much of it is manufactured in the US.)
The US is now getting around to finally addressing the problem of swarming drones, while the Russians in Ukraine are already using swarming attacks that mix drones with cruise missiles and glide bombs, including many decoys, creating a huge problem for ground-based air defenses.
As weapons become more and more autonomous (and therefore un-jammable), the threat of mixed swarming attacks will multiply. In the future this will be a job for artificial intelligence driving air defense systems. We are waiting.
A similar case can be made about tanks. The much-ballyhooed German Leopard tanks have been crushed by the Russians in Ukraine. Why? For starters, the Leopards, despite their modern armor, lack effective defenses.
The Ukrainians, fearing the tanks were vulnerable, started putting captured Russian reactive armor on the Leopards along with steel cages on top to protect against overhead weapons.
If the German tanks were so great, why didn’t they have frontal, side and topside protection? Translation: NATO’s tanks, other than some US Abrams, don’t have protection either. Now Abrams tanks, older models without the most advanced armor, are being handed over to Ukraine. They are unlikely to survive, either.
The US Army knows that part of the answer is to have active defenses on tanks. Active defenses won’t protect against mines or heavy artillery strikes, but they can help against anti-tank weapons, mortars and shells.
The US Army bought exactly 100 copies of Israel’s proven Trophy system then decided to develop its own alternative, wasting more years and leaving US tanks without this extra protection. As Yogi Berra said, deja vu all over again.
For the record, although the Russians claim to have active defense systems, their tanks in Ukraine do not. However, they all have reactive armor, although mostly first or (at best) second-generation versions.
The Russians have a new reactive armor system but it has not shown up on the battlefield. Maybe they are holding it back for a future war.
Part of the US and NATO’s problem is the inbuilt belief that the Russians would not be able to adapt to new forms of warfare. Not only have the Russians adapted but they have introduced new generations of weapons that seem to be effective on the battlefield or against high-value targets.
Examples include air-launched mines, which have made it difficult for Ukraine to clear pathways for its troops, precision glide bombs, and hypersonic missiles, which have targeted military and civilian infrastructure.
Perhaps most significantly, Russia has developed a killer drone called Lancet. This drone can strike and kill moving tanks and armored vehicles and has even taken out a Ukrainian BUK air defense system. So far it appears neither Ukraine nor NATO has an answer to the Lancet, which is continually being improved.
A Lancet attack drone developed by Kalashnikov. Click to enlarge
In any war, there will be a huge need for ammunition and for replacement weapons. The Ukraine war has drained NATO arsenals and stockpiles meant for other contingencies.
A year into the Ukraine war, the US and its allies started to give contracts to stodgy defense contractors to make more ammunition and smart weapons. But problems immediately arose.
Many of the production facilities had long since shut down and new ones would have to be created. Supply chains would need to be renewed, but for older weapons, the supply chains might not exist any longer. Finding experienced workers and engineers also became a challenge since there were not so many volunteers for short-term contract jobs.
Finally, many of the parts and materials depend on supplies from China, as Raytheon’s president has made clear. Recently, the Chinese started restricting electronics and other supplies (including rare earths) that had been exported to the US and Europe.
These same problems would confront NATO in a general war, except that a good part of European armaments production might be halted by enemy attacks.
What is obvious is that NATO stockpiles are insufficient for Ukraine and totally inadequate for NATO security, raising the question of why the US and NATO were willing to raid the already paltry stocks for Ukraine, knowing it left NATO naked in Europe and significantly weakened US forward defenses in the Pacific.
No one in government wants to talk about this recklessness, or if they do, they say everything is OK. Nonsense. You can’t burn up $100 billion in weapons and ammunition and have everything be OK.
If the Ukraine war ended tomorrow, would the US and NATO really be willing to continue high levels of defense spending and rebuild stockpiles and modernize weapons? Would the US be ready to change its procurement system, accept foreign weapons where they are readily available and start applying sensible economic measures to its defense purchases?
One of the outcomes of the Ukraine war is proof positive that NATO is not ready even to defend its own territories. Will this lead, inevitably, to a major change in approach in European politics and strategy?
As Ukraine continues to weaken and the adventure in Ukraine ends, attitudes are bound to change. The existing crop of leaders in Europe and the US will go by the wayside. What will come next? The handwriting, it seems, already is on the wall.
Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. This article was originally published on Weapons and Strategy, his Substack.
Haha, soooo funny. How does a Nazi sect ‘learn a lesson’?
I’m sure there are individual NATO sheeple who buy the script, but they are in deep, so will remain silent, unless they are required to appear in a Russian held court.
Just think, the British Nazi Challanger tanks are in operation, but are being kept as far away as possible from danger, yet 2 Challanger tanks have been destroyed. From what I understand, their secret armour has been removed, so they’re no better than WW2 death traps.
While trying post a comment yesterday, it literally vanished from the screen. Either Rixon, one of his ‘trusted’ helpers, or just the Nazi deep state. While it is frustrating, it does show that I’m having some effect, or they wouldn’t worry.
Biden is the commander in chief, and he runs NATO. The UKraine war must go on until the November 2024 election, 14 months from now. So you can add another 150/250k UKraine Nazi dead. All the good times.
NATO Learning hard lessons about its future in Jewkraine. No F..king kidding, losers, NATO is over. Theirs the door, see you later losers. Hail Russia, Hail Putin, Hail General Armageddon(he;s on leave).
we have all seen these jews who advocate sex with animals particularly dogs
but this guy takes it too far
http://www.renegadetribune.com/scandal-erupts-as-ufc-champion-israel-adesanya-exposed-for-sexual-abuse-of-dogs/
Short Version: ZATO…. FCKED!!!!!!!!!!!
🤣
Lots of burnt-out ZATO tanks there!
At least Ben “Big Mouth” Wallace had the good sense to GTFO of town before any obliterated Challengers showed up!
LMFAO!! 😂
The author was doing well until using these two words: Pentagon spendthrifts
Huh?!
“Ukraine has taken back little of the territory the Russians grabbed” – NATO rubbish: the Oblasts Luhansk and Donetsk held elections, on the basis if which they applied to the Russian Federation parliament to join (or, re-join) Russia. That application was accepted.
Got absolutely nothing to do with the post.
I watched the highlights of Alcaraz v Medvedev the other night. The Russian played well. If Russian soldiers fight that well, look-out Ukraine, even NATO.
Video has been taken down. Wanted to share it here. I should have copied it.
One is Russian the other unvaxxed, couple of villians alright in the minds of those who push war and jib-jabs.
———————————————————————-
Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev is a US Open final of two super-villains
Story by Simon Briggs •
18h
Novak Djokovic used Ben Shelton’s hang-up celebration against him – Mike Stobe/Getty Images
Novak Djokovic used Ben Shelton’s hang-up celebration against him – Mike Stobe/Getty Images
© Provided by The Telegraph
Sunday’s US Open men’s final is a hard one to predict, not least when it comes to the crowd’s allegiances.
On the one hand, you have Novak Djokovic, the all-time legend who has just ousted successive Americans – and put 20-year-old Ben Shelton in his place on Friday with a pointed “hang up the phone” celebration.
On the other, there’s Daniil Medvedev, the eccentric Russian who has made a habit of baiting the New York fans. After his own semi-final win over Carlos Alcaraz, Medvedev told the on-court interviewer that “a thousand Spanish guys started screaming between first and second serves … They can go to sleep now”. As the 1980s legend Pam Shriver had told him during an earlier interview, “You’re a piece of work.”
Most neutrals had been expecting Alcaraz – a far more wholesome character – to defend his title here. Or at least to reach what would have been a highly marketable final against Djokovic, thus completing a trilogy of summer blockbusters after their recent classics at Wimbledon and Cincinnati.
Instead, this is like a Marvel movie where the studio forgot to book the hero, and ended up with a pair of supervillains instead.
The denouement is entirely in character for US Open, however, as this tournament always seems to throw up a surprise. We are talking about the slam where Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal both entered the draw on 14 occasions without ever facing each other on the court. In 2008, Nike even hired boxing promoter Don King to hype up this apparently inevitable showdown as “The Grapple in the Apple” – a hubristic gesture which backfired spectacularly.
While some fans may feel cheated by Friday’s turn of events, there is every reason to anticipate a fine match on Sunday. Medvedev beat Djokovic in straight sets in the 2021 final here, so he shouldn’t be overawed. And despite their shared prickliness, these are two fascinating, articulate and complex characters.
In Djokovic’s case, his phone gesture towards Shelton sparked much debate on social media. It was a direct imitation of the celebration that Shelton had employed in the previous round, after his victory over Frances Tiafoe. No wonder the handshake, which happened a few seconds later, was chillier than the ice-baths waiting in the locker-room.
Recommended video: Novak Djokovic’s Ice-Cold Handshake Sends Message to Ben Shelton (SportsGrid)
Was the move strictly necessary? Of course it wasn’t. At the same time, though, it was dramatic, eye-catching and – most crucially – authentic. It expressed Djokovic’s combative, competitive side far more accurately than the saccharine version of himself that he has presented in the past, notably while performing the heart-throwing celebration that he used to save for the end of each match.
For all the great things Federer and Nadal did for tennis, their fraternal and comradely spirit isn’t necessarily the way forward for everyone. It suited their personalities because they were both motivated by positive emotions. Federer adores tennis and Nadal loves competition of any kind.
But the majority of players have to look elsewhere for their spark. They build their fire by feeding off critics, sceptics and any perceived disrespect from their opponents. Most successful athletes have a healthy sliver of darkness in them, and there’s nothing wrong with expressing that.
Now that Federer and Nadal are largely absent from the tour, the likes of Djokovic and Medvedev are finally relaxing and abandoning such saintly expectations. Friday’s semi-final was a good example. Shelton had been acting up, working the crowd enthusiastically and cupping his hand to his ear when he scored a couple of breaks in the third set. So why not give him a bit back?
Such actions show that Djokovic has reinvented his public persona as well as his tennis game of late. It is only four years since Nick Kyrgios told the No Challenges Remaining podcast that Djokovic had “a sick obsession with wanting to be liked. He just wants to be like Roger … This whole celebration thing that he does after matches, it’s like so cringeworthy.”
Today, Djokovic is much more ready to play the pantomime villain, whether that means confronting the crowd or showing his tougher side to his rivals. “It’s expected that people are backing the home player,” Djokovic told the on-court interviewer on Tuesday, having just eliminated American No 1 Taylor Fritz. “I actually thrive on that energy. Whatever the energy is, I use it as fuel.”
This was itself an echo of Medvedev’s notorious line to a hostile Arthur Ashe Stadium in 2019: “I want all of you to know when you sleep tonight, I won because of you.”
Daniil Medvedev has had a mixed relationship with the US Open crowd – Getty Images/Kena Betancur
Daniil Medvedev has had a mixed relationship with the US Open crowd – Getty Images/Kena Betancur
© Provided by The Telegraph
As a champion from a small country, and the player who disrupted the great Federer-Nadal love-in, Djokovic was never destined to be as popular as those two legends, no matter how many majors he goes on to win.
Perversely, though, he could well end up growing his fan base if he continues to reveal his uncompromising side. Honest self-expression is more appealing than impersonation. And if his example inspires a few others to follow suit, all the better. Sport rarely prospers by being bland.
Yeah right…its all a staged coordinated Orwellian war setup between the two ZOG Commie-WEF agents (Putin/Zelensky) to slaughter white soldiers/civilians in advancement of Whiteocide…figure it out.
The wars on the European continent need more poisons like anthrax. Irlmaier described a line between the Black Sea and the North Sea.
Russia has no problems in production of restocking ammunitions and even is resuming tank production and upgrading of the T80 model to T80BVM for it’s efficiency in battle.
A conventional war inside Europe will be postponed as long as possible of course but first expect a Moslim invasion of S .Europe when the Africa roll continues to devastate the regions there, possibly we might even start praying for Russia to intervene ..
Putin always waits for a Judo opportunity. Western leaders being replaced takes time and election cycles. The current crop of western psychopaths are escalating with Romania doing maneuvers in the black sea. Their partner? Ukraine, who is at war. There are escalation risks to going slow when the west is led by money sick psychos, who want to own the world.
NATOs defensive strategy has always been “Nuke’em til they glow and shoot’em in the dark.”
So as long as the Ukrainian “Conflict” is conventional warfare Russia Wins!
@Nico X says “figure it out”
Therein lies the problem; most of the responses here on TTF to these articles blather about Putin being some f***king hero, another one goes on incessantly about the Nazis that are apart of his warped imagination, and another one post to this article goes on way too long about a sports event which gets boring after the first sentence and has in reality no connection to the article itself.
https://thepeoplesvoice.tv/peer-reviewed-study-proves-vaccinated-people-will-never-stop-producing-deadly-spike-protein/
Remember when they claimed that “the vaccine stays in the arm” and that “harmless spike protein is only produced for a couple of days.” They said they were sure of that, despite no testing or data to confirm their statements.
Three years later, the data is now in, and it appears that many vaccinated people have been turned into mRNA factories and will never stop producing spike protein. The data also proves that Big Pharma, regulators, and governments were lying to us.
A scientific study by Brogna et al., just published, detected the presence of spike protein in COVID-vaccinated people SIX MONTHS after vaccination – and excluded the possibility of cross-contamination of experimental data with wild-circulating COVID infections.
It turns out that only the people in the vaccinated subgroup were found to carry vaccine-derived spike protein. What is worse, vaccine spike protein was found as late as six months after the last dose!
Nowhere does the study state that spike protein production ends after 187 days – the upper limit on time after vaccination was an artifact of the study design.
An item of note is the above sentence, “It is possible that the mRNA may be integrated or re-transcribed in some cells.” The so-called reverse transcription, that is, vaccine mRNA becoming part of the human DNA genome in some affected cells, was originally dismissed without evidence by the so-called “COVID science,” until it was demonstrated in in-vitro experiments:
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/prca.202300048
Mass spectrometry examination of biological samples was used to detect the presence of specific fragments of recombinant Spike protein in subjects who received mRNA-based vaccine. The specific PP-Spike fragment was found in 50% of the biological samples analyzed, and its presence was independent of the SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody titer. The minimum and maximum timeat which PP-Spike was detected after vaccination was 69 and 187 days, respectively.
Using mass spectrometry examination of biological samples, we detected the presence of specific fragments of recombinant Spike protein in about 50% of subjects who received mRNA-based vaccines. In some cases, we found the PP-Spike marker in vaccinated individuals more than 30 days after the vaccine, indicating that it is possible to detect vaccine “Spike” protein even some time after vaccination and in any organic tissue (datainpreparation). Based on the results obtained, hypotheses can be made for possible molecular mechanisms of persistence of “SpikePP.” In particular, three hypotheses are possible and are shown in Figure 3.
1. It is possible that the mRNA may be integrated or re-transcribed in some cells.
@ Goy Buoy
A refreshingly unusual post. I can’t remember anyone else ever waxing lyrically about tennis before, at this site. I’m a sports fan too but the game of tennis has never particularly enthused me. I admire Djokovic but not for his prowess as a sportsman, necessarily; more, for his integrity as a human being.
I used to quite enjoy watching women’s tennis but, in truth, as a spectator, my attention was much less focussed on the play, than it was, on the competitors’ underwear.
When the Williams sisters arrived on the scene, I lost my taste for women’s tennis.
Lerch—yep like you said before most of the posters on here are sayanim or Commies pretending to be ‘truth seekers’. Their job is to stifle the actual ‘truth’.
It definitely doesn’t help when Ukraine takes all of US’s money, launders it and squanders it on elites and the mob. They really don’t give a shit about the “war.” War is just a vehicle for theft and death. Since Jews create the wars, you can be damn sure money is the only true reward for their evil, and if millions or even BILLIONS die, Jews could give 2 shits less, especially if it’s WHITES.
I absolutely predict that 2024 is going to be the most violent year in American history. They’re gonna be comin’ at us from 360 degrees, everywhere you look, every aspect of your life will be trounced on by these filthy fucking bastards. Get yourselves ready to hunker down, and prey that you are not “found.”
Bidin runs NATO? He can’t say his location twice the same way, but he runs NATO about like Zalensky does!
The wars on the European continent need more poisons like anthrax. Irlmaier described a line between the Black.
ERICK U SEEM TO IGNORE GEOGRAPHY.
EUROPE AIN’T A CONTINENT.
EUROPE IS A PENINSULA OF THE EURO-ASIAN-AFRIKAN- CONTINENT
FREDERICK HEGEL INVENTED THE CONCEPT OF EUROPE.BEING A CONTINENT..😁😁😁😁😁😒😒😏
andyay:
“I admire Djokovic but not for his prowess as a sportsman, necessarily; more, for his integrity as a human being.”
Djokovic is a proven cheat. Funny how these things just melt away. I’m sure he has improved as a good sheeple, but I’m one of these people who believes that you should never be able to blur out your past deeds, and that goes for little lambs who do bad things.
The writer whose name I already forget and can’t be bothered looking up and returning to present comment, said some pretty rational stuff about the state of western military decrepitude.
But he keeps plugging Israel’s fake prowess with Iron Dome and tank defense “Trophy” as of “proven effectiveness.
Huh? What did I miss.
Hezbollah riddled the iron Dome with 3rd world homemade rockets in their last get-together and forced jews to run screaming to their big-jugs jew mammas and bury their slobbering faces into those chicken grease aprons.
As for Trophy, just when and how did it prove itself against any adversary that didn’t throw rocks at it?
Oh happy day, when Jew army meets a half-credible opponent in the battlefield.
Let’s say, Iran.
@andyay
“A refreshingly unusual post”
It wasn’t to everyone’s liking. I don’t know if you believe in God. Comment below is not refering to you. It’s referring to some ex military guy who has never killed anyone. Praise be to God for that.
Unfortunately someone who doesn’t believe in God, has no faith and thinks Nico X, who also doesn’t believe in God, has no faith and thinks Putin is just as bad as Blinken.
Come on…Putin’s not that bad.
Who is the candidate likely to be playing 4D chess, Trump or Putin?
Putin’s game of chess is far better than Trump’s.
Anyway, the COVID antivaxxer Djokovic won.
Djokovic is good for the COVID antivaxx campaign. He’s a very good villian…
Too bad the chap who whinged didn’t appreciated the article, I copied and pasted, I thought it was good.
No superhero, just two villians battling it out.
The best villian won.
The best villain won. Spelling correction
I wonder if the telephone gesture will be adopted by some big important politician.
Putin perhaps, when he’s really fed-up and done with Blinken or Biden.
Perhaps a Blinken or Biden might use it against Putin or Xi Jinping?
No, I don’t think so, politicians are not that honest nor that stupid.