Larry Johnson – SONAR April 25, 2023
With each passing day, the Ukrainian Army is being carved up and decimated in Bakhmut. To use a cinematic metaphor, this is a preview of the coming attraction, with Ukraine facing intense pressure to launch a counter offensive that will push the Russians out of Ukraine. Ain’t going to happen.
Take a look at the following video. Yes, it is but one isolated anecdotal account of the slaughter in Bakhmut, but it rings true and provides a chilling picture of the desperate state of Ukrainian forces in that battle..
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Even If Ukraine is able to scrounge up troops and vehicles that surpass anything the Russians have in place on the front-lines in the Donbass (a dubious assumption), it still lacks the artillery, air support, logistics and ammunition to sustain such an attack.
How do I know? Very simple. Just look at how Ukraine currently is performing in Bakhmut, Ugledar, and Avdevka. In every case, Ukrainian forces are retreating, albeit slowly, rather than blunting the Russian offensive. The following image (taken from liveuamap.com, a pro-Ukrainian site) shows the harrowing situation the Ukrainian troops confront.
Click to enlarge
Ukraine, which in theory should have an advantage by fighting from defensive positions, has failed to stop the slow but steady advance of Russian troops all along the line of contact. Instead of attacking and destroying Russian lines of communications that supply the Russian forces, Ukraine is launching artillery and HIMARS missile strikes on civilian targets. Those attacks do nothing to weaken Russia’s tactical and strategic situation.
The seven blue circles visible on the map signify locations where air raid warnings are sounding on April 25. This means the Russians hitting these sites with fixed wing aircraft to deliver 500 kg glide bombs and explosive laden drones. The effect is devastating for the Ukrainians on the receiving end.These strikes also confirm the assessment contained in one of the leaked pieces of U.S. intelligence that Ukraine’s air defense system (ADS) has been destroyed and Ukraine lacks a layered ADS to fend off Russian attacks. Russian military sources claim they are inflicting an average of 500 fatalities on the Ukrainian troops. In other words, in the last 60 days the Ukrainians have suffered at least 30,000 KIA across the 950 km front. Ukraine does not have a limitless supply of manpower.
No amount of happy talk in Washington or the capitals of other NATO countries alters the dire tactical situation confronting Ukraine. If you look at the changes on the liveuamap during the last six months, it is Russia, not Ukraine, that is relentlessly attacking all along the line of contact. Russia is conducting a brutal war of attrition and Ukraine is willingly sending irreplaceable forces into the maw of destruction. How is Ukraine going to mount a credible counter offensive without adequate air support, an exhausted air defense system, a weakened tank force, shortages of artillery and missiles that cannot be readily replaced and a chaotic logistics system that is failing to keep front-line troops fully supplied with ammunition, fuel and food?
Ukraine’s prospects are made more grim by the realization that Russia, during the last six months, has built layered defense systems along likely avenues of attack, stepped up its use of fixed wing aerial attacks on Ukrainian mobilization positions and kept massive trained reserves off the front lines. Russia is not behaving like an overly confident number 1 seed in the NCAA Basketball tournament. The Russian General Staff realize they are in an existential fight with NATO and are not engaging in premature victory celebrations. Russia is prepared for the long haul. However, Ukraine is not.
The leaders in Kiev are behaving like depraved junkies, totally dependent on the willingness of the West to keep sending money and weapons. But there is a problem. The United States and NATO have exhausted their stocks of weapons and ammunition and do not have the industrial base in place to quickly produce replacements. Ukrainian confidence in victory is no substitute for a fully supplied and trained army. Lack of supplies and raw recruits with minimal basic training is a recipe for catastrophe.
I’ve seen the top image a few times and I think the poor man is probably a conscript. He looks to be in his forties and apart from his gloves which are dirty after getting into that trench the rest of his gear is clean. Probably American taxpayers paid for that, and I wonder if he realises he is where he is for America?
this zelensky must be deprived of
his money drug adiction !
Good summary. TY.
When the ammo runs out, and the industrial base cannot produce enough to keep the ball rolling….It’s either….Sticks & Stones or Nukes.
The Guardian announced Zelenski’s claim that the Ukrainian army is now ready for its Spring Offensive. And this lying rag claims of the severe bombardment by Russia on 27 April 2023 that ‘Most of Russia’s attacks were intercepted, with 21 out of 23 missiles shot down by the Ukrainian military.’
The bare-facedly dishonest intention here is gives the impression that the worst of the effect of the Russian bombing was the death of 19 civilians. No mention is made of the documented fact that the Russian bombardment on 27 April was brutal.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/apr/28/russia-launches-deadly-wave-of-missile-attacks-on-ukraine-cities
A reliable Hungarian conservative newspaper reports a ‘brutal bombing’ by Russia of mostly the Eastern area of Ukraine now annexed by Russia, but also of Kiev:
https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2023/04/brutalis-raketatamadas-ukrajnaban-a-fovarost-is-bombaztak.
And admin reported, citing a military source, that ‘…the Ukrainians sustained heavy losses on Thursday 27 April, including 3 S-300 anti aircraft systems, an M-777 system and over 400 soldiers.’ https://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/ .
For an army ready to launch its Spring Offensive, this is a very feeble showing.
An interesting thing is this: The German newspaper Bild reported that the Ukes say that they were ‘very nearly successful’ at ‘eliminating’ President Putin. The Hungarian paper cited above takes issue with this, scoffing that the cheap drone attack such as the Ukes describe could never have bought off the murder of the world’s most security protected man.
https://magyarnemzet.hu/kulfold/2023/04/vilaghaboruhoz-vezetne-egy-valodi-merenylet-putyin-ellen
I now mention the Ukrainians’ claimed ‘near-successful’ assassination attempt against President Putin only because it seems to me likely that the ‘brutal bombardment by Russia ‘ in the small hours of 27 April was a punishment-serve on Ukraine.
The Ukes actually do appear to have been suffering a delusional episode that their four pathetic drones will kill President Putin. RT News reports their delusional state thus:
‘The crash of the UJ-22 on Sunday was widely reported in Russian media, however. The UAV was found in the Bogorodsky district, about 30km from Moscow’s eastern outskirts and 20km from Rudnevo. It had 30 blocks of C4 explosive, around 17 kilograms, on board. Three more drones, all of the smaller quadcopter variety, were discovered near the Russian capital on Monday.
The same day, Ukrainian propaganda service Euromaidan PR tweeted a video purporting to show footage of Moscow taken by Ukrainian drones, claiming responsibility for the quadcopters and leaving a threatening message: “We are closer than you think.” ’
The platform’s Community Notes quickly fact-checked the claim, however, revealing that the drone footage actually came from an old YouTube video.’
https://www.rt.com/russia/575457-putin-drone-assassination-fabrication/
I ask you: Do the movers and shakers of a country, on the eve of itsn armed forces’ make-or-break offensive thrust, play silly buggers with drones and fake videos? Hardly. I put it to you that the chief Ukes had a go at killing President Putin in the hope of bringing that off, and with it, provoking a nuclear strike that will save them the need for a face losing counter-offensive.
I doubt that we shall see a Spring Offensive from Ukraine.