Mike Whitney – The Unz Review Jan 25, 2023
Behind Washington’s desperate appeal for tanks and other lethal weaponry for Ukraine, looms the nagging prospect that Russia’s winter offensive may have already begun in the south where heavy fighting has broken out along the Line of Contact in the Zaporizhia region. While the information from the front remains sketchy, some analysts think that Russia is planning to send its troops and armored units northward in order to block vital supply-lines and trap Ukrainian forces in the east. A Russian blitz northward would likely be synchronized with the movement of a second large grouping pushing south along the Oskil River. These two dagger-like thrusts would be accompanied by multiple missile strikes aimed at strategic bridges and railway-lines crossing the Dnieper River. If the Russians were able to succeed in such an operation, the bulk of Ukraine’s army would be effectively encircled in the east while Moscow would have regained control over most of its traditional territories. The offensive might not end the war, but it would end Ukraine’s existence as a viable, contiguous state. This is an excerpt from an article at Aljazeera:
Moscow’s forces are pushing towards two towns in Ukraine’s southern Zaporizhia region, where fighting intensified this week after several months of a stagnant front… Vladimir Rogov, a Russian-installed official in the region, said offensive actions were concentrated around two towns: Orikhiv, around 50km (30 miles) south of Ukrainian-controlled regional capital Zaporizhzhia, and Hulyaipole, further east….
The Russian army later claimed for a second day in a row that it had taken “more advantageous lines and positions” after “offensive operations” in the Zaporizhia region…. In its daily report on Sunday, the Ukrainian army said “more than 15 settlements were affected by artillery fire” in Zaporizhia…. He also said this week that fighting has “sharply increased” in the southern region.” (“Russia advances towards two towns in Ukraine’s Zaporizhia region”, AlJazeera)
Typically, I wouldn’t spend much time on a topic for which there is so little evidence and so much speculation. But people are following events very closely in Ukraine because they want to know what Putin plans to do with the 550,000 combat troops that are presently scattered across the theatre or gathered along the perimeter in Belarus. The assumption is that Putin will use these forces in a winter offensive that could dramatically impact the course of the war. I agree with that assumption, but I’m not entirely convinced that the fighting in the south proves that the offensive has already started. Even so, the buzz on the Telegram channels and Twitter is hard to ignore and could indicate that my skepticism is unwarranted. For example, here are a few blurbs from independent sites that suggest the offensive is already underway:
The Russian Army is still actively advancing in the #Zaporozhye direction, the front has been pressed to a depth of 7km. At the moment our advance in three directions on the #Orekhov section. On the west side there is fighting for #Novoandreyevka and #Shcherbaki, on the east for #Belogorye and Malaya Tokmachka, on the southeast there is fighting for #Novodanilovka, which is only 6.5 km from #Orekhov. A defensive breakthrough here will allow the RF Armed Forces to develop an offensive in several directions at once, literally cutting the AFU grouping into two parts. Telegram
Or this:
Zaporozhye update
The Russian army continues its offensive on the Zaporozhye Front
The troops of the Southern and Eastern military districts are conducting an offensive on a wide front – up to 60 km (in the Vasilyevsky and Pologovsky districts).
The advance of troops is slowed down due to many minefields.
Or this:
The offensive is going according to plan: close fights in several areas. Fortified positions and regions of the enemy are actively treated with bombs, mines, and howitzer shells; only then come armored vehicles with infantry.
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Zaporozhye direction, the RF Armed Forces are hitting the Armed Forces of Ukraine with all types of weapons in areas of more than 25 settlements, including Olgovskoe, Gulyaipole, Volshebnoe, Novodanilovka, Kamenskoe and Plavni of the Zaporozhye region, Vremovka and Novopol DNR.
This is just a small sampling of the postings that have been flooding various sites for the last few days. A great number of the comments are from people who appear to have first-hand knowledge of events on the battlefield. I can’t speak for their accuracy, but the volume of reports (and their intensity) suggest that something out-of-the-ordinary is taking place.
There’s also a new post at Moon of Alabama in which Bernard states unequivocally that the offensive is already underway. Here’s what he said:
The long expected Russian offensive in Ukraine has begun….
I and others have suggested for quite some time that the Russian forces will use the southern Zaporizhia region for a large thrust into the far back of the Ukrainian forces around Bakhmut…
The Russian moves against the third and fourth Ukrainian defense lines will likely be supported by a move from the south that will liberate the rest of the Zaporiziha and Donetsk oblast…..
There is no Ukrainian artillery brigade in the sector. There are thereby no counter-artillery capabilities available…..The aim of the Russian thrust in the south will not be to take cities like Zaporiziha. The aim is to bring the main transport routes, railways and roads, from west-Ukraine to the front in east Ukraine under Russian artillery fire. This will prevent not only the re-supply for the Ukrainian troops on the eastern front but also their exit from the front line. A 100 kilometer (60 miles) thrust to the north would mostly do that. A complementary thrust from the north towards south, which may or may not be coming, would finally close the cauldron.” (“Ukraine – Russian Army Activates Southern Front”, Moon of Alabama)
Although I’m still not sure that the offensive has actually begun, I entirely agree with MoA that Russia’s plan will be some variation of the strategy he presents in his article. In fact, a similar strategy was laid out by military historian Big Serge in a recent Substack post titled “Russo-Ukrainian War: The World Blood Pump”. The two analysts appear to have drawn similar conclusions as to what we should expect in the weeks to come. Here’s an excerpt from the article:
At the moment, the majority of Russian combat power is uncommitted, and both western and Ukrainian sources are (belatedly) becoming increasingly alarmed about the prospect for a Russian offensive in the coming weeks. Currently, the entire Ukrainian position in the east is vulnerable because it is, in effect, an enormous salient, vulnerable to attack from three directions.
Two operational depth objectives in particular have the potential to shatter Ukrainian logistics and sustainment. These are, respectively, Izyum in the north and Pavlograd in the South. A Russian thrust down the west bank of the Oskil river towards Izyum would simultaneously threaten to cut off and destroy the Ukrainian grouping on the Svatove axis (S on the map) and sever the vital M03 highway from Kharkov. Reaching Pavlograd, on the other hand, would completely isolate the Ukrainian forces around Donetsk and sever much of Ukraine’s transit across the Dneiper.
Both Izyum and Pavlograd are roughly 70 miles from the start lines of a prospective Russian offensive, and thus offer a very tempting combination – being both operationally significant and in relatively manageable reach. Beginning yesterday, we started to see Russian advances on the Zaporozhia axis. While these consist, at the moment, mainly of reconnaissance in force pushing into the “grey zone” (that ambiguous interstitial frontage), RUMoD did claim several settlements taken, which could presage a genuine offensive push in this direction. The key tell would be a Russian assault on Orikhiv, which is a large town with a genuine Ukrainian garrison in it. A Russian attack here would indicate that something more than a probing attack is underway.
It is difficult sometimes to parse out the difference between what we predict will happen and what we want to happen. This, certainly, is what I would choose if I was in charge of Russian planning – a drive south along the west bank of the Oskil river on the Kupyansk-Izyum axis, and a simultanious attack northward past Zaporozhia towards Pavlograd. In this case, I believe simply screening Zaporozhia in the short term is preferable to getting bogged down in an urban battle there.
Whether Russia will actually attempt this, we do not know. Russian operational security is much better than either Ukraine’s or their proxy forces (Wagner and the LNR/DNR Milita), so we know significantly less about Russia’s deployments than we do about Ukraine’s. Regardless, we know that Russia enjoys a strong preponderance of combat power right know, and there are juicy operational targets within range.” (“Russo-Ukrainian War: The World Blood Pump“, Big Serge, Substack)
Not surprisingly, fighting has broken out around Orikhiv which Big Serge says “would indicate that something more than a probing attack is underway.” In other words, this could, in fact, be the opening phase of the winter offensive. And, if it is, then we should assume that there will be a shift away from the ‘positional battles of attrition’ we’ve seen up to this point. The Russia offensive will not face defensive lines of heavily fortified trenches that require weeks of softening with long-range artillery until armored units can be dispatched for mop-up operations. The Big Arrow moves that Serge anticipates suggests that we could see significant territorial gains in lightly-defended areas. That means that things will likely move much faster than they have in the last 11 months. It also means that Ukrainian forces in the Donbass will be effectively cut off from Kiev and left to fend for themselves. Naturally, the casualties are bound to be significant.
According to reports in the media, CIA Director William Burns secretly visited Kiev last week to warn Zelensky about the impending Russian offensive. Burns probably presented a scenario very similar to the strategy laid out by MoA and Big Serge. But whatever Burns may have said to Zelensky, it had no effect on the Ukrainian president at all. Zelensky has continued to send troops to the frontlines (Bakhmut) despite the hopelessness of the situation and despite the fact that the Ukrainian defensive positions are collapsing by the day. There’s no longer any doubt that Russian forces will eradicate pockets of resistance in the east or that the battered remnants of the Ukrainian army will be forced to retreat. It’s only a matter of time.
We’re not saying it’s all going to be “smooth sailing” for the Russians from this point on. No, there are going to be plenty of bumps in the road ahead. But given Russia’s superiority in manpower, firepower and industrial base, we think Russia will undoubtedly win this first phase of the war. The problem is that –even if the Russian army clears all the territory east of the Dnieper River and annexes it into the Russian Federation– that doesn’t mean the fighting will stop. It won’t stop. US-backed forces will continue to launch attacks from across the river, they’ll deploy commandos to strike behind Russian lines, they’ll train paramilitaries to ignite an insurgency, and they’ll fire missiles at Crimea, Russia and, perhaps, even Moscow itself.
Is Putin ready for that?
Washington is not going to throw in the towel because Russia won the first round in a 10-round fight. The United States is still fully committed to its plan to “weaken” Russia in order to become the dominant player in the world’s most promising market, Central Asia. In that regard, the fighting in Ukraine has not dampened Washington’s resolve at all, in fact, we think the conflict is feuling the widespread Russophobia and the relentless cries for revenge. How else do we explain the persistent escalation that has not yet sparked even a peep of public protest? And, keep in mind, the US has already blown up NordStream 2, pushed Europe into a severe Depression, sabotaged global supplylines for the foreseeable future, derailed the 40 year-long “globalization” project, and done everything in its power to goad China into a shooting war. What these incidents show is how much importance the US attaches to its priviledged role in the global order and the risks it is willing to take to preserve that role. In short, the United States will do ‘whatever it takes’ to maintain its iron-grip on power.
If I was Putin, I would prepare myself for a long and bloody struggle. Because that’s what he’s in for.
As for the title, You Don’t say !
This has been planned for decades. ALL OF IT,
All the crap the yanks have dished out to lesser nations since ’45, Then the recent shite in the mid-east.
with the lap dog always involved. (UK)
Festering trouble in the East,
China v, take your pick, with possible allies N.K. & The Viets,
That is also close to ignition,
India/Paki/China/Afghan relations are knife edge.
And the iron ore suppliers (OZ) threaten China . ? Work that one out. China are their biggest customer.
It’s all a game, a money mans game,
Kids usually play with toy soldiers, then (in the main) Grow up.
These jeepsters play for real with real people.
It’s disgusting, pathetic & obvious, simply follow the paper trail time after time.
that’s all it’s ever about. the Money. & ordering people around.
meanwhile, Hordes walk across the Mexican border, LITERALLY. & Zodiacs proliferate across the Med & English Channel. While ‘janet’ with a cock & balls reads nursery rhymes & tales to the little ones, protected & encouraged by LAW. anyone who stands up to this evil, is classed as a ‘Domestic torrorist’ ? work that one out.
Jerks,
I never bother reading a lot of the ‘reports’ these days.
There’s next to nothing we can do about it anyway.
Jesus said ‘I am not of this world’ & I hate the place too.
It’s jiggered.
It won’t be long once the nukes start flying.
The US keeps forgetting, though it does bitch about it when it remembers, that just as the US doesn’t stand alone in this war and the supply of weapons, neither does Russia. This war is not just an existential threat for Russia but also China and Iran, because if Russia falls they’re the next targets. So there will have been arrangements made between Russia and its partners. Whether other countries manufacture and supply them munitions, or whether Russia produced enough these past eight years that others safely store them for them in case of direct attack, it’s likely that plans were made years ago, back when it wasn’t known who America would first whip up war against. So I’m sure though Russia appears to stand alone it doesn’t. But it can stand up front without bitching and calling desperately for back-up like America always does.
I’ve been saying this from the start, because it isn’t about UKraine, it’s about Russia’s right to exist as a sovereign power with the ability to participate in global social interactions, like the Olympics, World Cup, and others.
This is a last man standing fight. Let’s say a peace deal is done in UKraine. This won’t stop the NWO Nazis, they won’t stop until they run Russia, or all the new countries that could be formed after their win. Smaller nations are easier to control.
Most NWO Nazi sect members really can’t get their heads around the fact that Russia is sooo big, so resource rich, and a nuclear power. This is like being raised to be NWO King, and then told the moment you are crowned, that there’s a bigger and wealther Kingdom just over the horizon.
And then you find out that this Kingdom is on good terms With the Chinese and that they have land borders which makes your naval forces virtually useless.
Yeh, sure, this is just a friendly match. All in the bar later for plutonium cocktails, and Gates is picking up the tab.
#gutted
The Rothschild EU says it will add bugs to your food
https://www.theepochtimes.com/european-commission-approves-2-more-insect-species-as-food-for-humans_5012286.html?utm_s
The U.S.—-underwritten by the Fed debt/death dollar—-derives its power from cooperation, not opposition…
This is a parasitic phenomenon.
The dark forces that mediate the U.S. power network are sympathomimetic to spineless cooperation, not robust self-fortified opposition based on the spiritual immune system of the rational mind.
Whatever opposition Russia offers will access a potential energy reservoir beyond the dollar-based geopolitical realm.
This is not as much about Putin as it is about a resident entity that opposes-and-surpasses the physical threat of “the West”.
Putin is just a mortal face on the underlying fate of “the West”.
A MUST SEE and HEAR:
Scott Ritter: Interview with Viktor Bout/The Real Truth behind the case of Viktor Bout
RealTruthTalk2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JE0sNQK6wrg
Scott Ritter: Interview with Viktor Bout 2023.01.26
https://grizzom.blogspot.com/2023/01/scott-ritter-interview-with-viktor-bout.html
Seems by the time the NATO leftists get their ducks in a row it’ll be a foregone conclusion.
“There can be only one” From the Movie Highlander. This is going on now for many, many years .. And each time a countrie (head) falls, the bankers win and get all the resources.. These must be exiting times for the bankers..
Nutenyahu and the jewbankers who run the USA dont care
they will use the USA to fight to the end
The NWO commies will see the USA brought to a waste land
In ww 2 the Russian communist forces at stalingrad killed the women and children
to make more food available for the fighters
Putin threw out rothschild and the comie bankers but make no mistake
the New world order Comunists will kill us by the million
What these CIA/KGB shills like Whitney don’t tell you is that both ‘sides’ (NATO/Russia) are governed by the same consortium of anti-white Yids pretending to be ‘enemies’, so they can decimate/slay more white gentiles.
Nico — Exactly!
prof susan foster –Rothschild & Co. Bank still in Moscow. Jewess (Nabiullina) head of Central Bank. Most if not all cabinet members of Putin’s Admin are Yids with phony ‘Russian names’. You know, like ‘Bronstein’ became Trotsky’ & Apfelbaum became ‘Zinoviev’. Fast forward 100 years–same scam. Russia is a ZOG State just like all the NATO nations…Cheers.
Clearly, the West lost its soul some 100 years ago, when morality (objective standards of right and wrong) became relativistic and irrelevant. It is all about manipulating beliefs now to serve special interests. Might and money make right and more money.
There are no longer any real standards for that old thing called “honesty” which is a relativistic and outmoded “moral choice” according to a leading Harvard business school journal. In 2019 the government of Canada did away with restrictions on the mainstream media allowing them to willfully deceive the people. Presently the same government is busy pushing a Bill through the corrupt Parliament of establishment toadies for their media police to control all internet content according to their official narratives.
The same totalitarian government has just proclaimed that any views with respect to medial science are the government’s prerogative to determine, and that the views and opinions of all scientists and medical professionals are subject to the authority of government decrees.
When it comes to court challenges for our protection from all of the top-down official lying and you want simple discloser of the scientific basis for any government medical decree, what you encounter in this chicken-shit nation is the road-block they call “public-interest immunity”, where the judges privately review some trash and/or reasons given to them by the government, and then tell the claimants that they are sorry they cannot release the documents as it is in the public interest not to disclose them, letting the government off essentially based on their own belief they were acting in the public interest. Same bullshit in the US and every other Western nation.
With all the official lies about global warming and climate change and then with the constant weather wars being waged against crops and entire continents, with high tech such as HAARP and endless chemtrails, there is no TRUTH, no real DISCLOSURE of the actual facts, because for those in control of those facts, it would weaken their power over us. With the people knowing what is going on they would be able to make responsible decisions and to plan their futures. No, all such knowledge relating to our vital interests is the privilege and the prerogative only for the insiders, the arch manipulators of all facts and issues, all who coincidentally turn out to be the obedient minions of the power moguls who believe they own every one of us.
Is war in the Ukraine real, or is Russia just playing a role in escalating the conflict to help create the mother of all perils to be used by the NWO globalists to trot out their peace plans “necessitating” centralized military controls over indecent nations not submitting to their globalist plans? Yes and No.
Remembering that the NWO globalist are also ushering in their private/public one-world-government i their systemic and technocratic fix upon each of us to control borders, travel, trade, resources, production, consumption & reproduction levels everywhere – then Yes Russia and the West have likely entered into a proxy war in the Ukraine to effect that particular stake-holder end. However, just in reading the absolute schmozzle of diverse big-time, establishment intrigue and interests before WWII presented on this site in Henry Makow’s post today called “The Ugly Secret” we have no basis to believe that the globalists and the international communists are actually in charge of everything to ensure a nicey-nicey NWO peace plan, with Pope Francis, Putin and Biden sitting down together and agreeing to turn their spears into pruning hooks.
With all of the cognitive dissonance, deceptions, lies, corruption, confusion, contradictions, fear mongering, uncertainty, and hopelessness being generated and foisted upon us by the power elites running all of our nations, you have to conclude that whether intended or not, that it is the common people who are the real enemy of these powers, and not Russia or CO2 or anything they foist upon us as the enemy other than ourselves.
Another credibility problem is that in this climate not even the Russia-bashing propaganda is believable or extreme as was the propaganda at work in the West before WWI and WWII. It is not that we have an internet now in the West to buffer and balance the Russian-bashing efforts of Western officialdom. It is all very ho-hum stuff and hardly as autocratic, organized, and relentless as evenly as recently as 2020 when they kicked off the Covid plandemic.
What all the players have to watch out for is in thinking that the war is simply a planned, contained and very much in their control, when like a fire, it can take on a life on as its own. This can happen especially when the US and Russian military brass who have spent their lives in figuring out how to destroy each other edge into the driver’s seats of their nations. Then there are the people in our nations who no longer have any real say in these matters begin to look for a war to solve their problems. For example, a war against a foreign foe may appear as a solution to all of their insecurity, disorientation and nausea actually inflicted upon them by their own masters. The seasick man can imagine relief by simply plunging into the foaming wake as he wretches his gusts out while leaning over the railing of the poop deck.
Also, with Henry’s article today in mind about the history of treachery among the various power elites, there remains to this day very strong and united Western financial, national, corporate, and oligarchical interests (the same parties actually backing the UN and the WEF) who may be using the entire NWO movement as a facade or pretext to suck Russia into an actual war so that they can defeat it and thereby own and control its renounces and its vast land mass to dominate and control Asia. The planning for this actually goes back to the Brits in the 19th century. Hence, in remembering the actual Marxist backgrounds of those still running the Russian government, if Russia is playing a game in the Ukraine with the globalist-controlled West for the NWO objective of one-world government objective (the international-communist wet dream) then if we heed the actual history of what went on before WWII, Russia ought to be very, very weary of a massive betrayal working against them at this time.
I doubt that Mike Whitney is right in that a Russian victory won’t end this war. Who will be fighting after the Rusian victory?
It is very apparent that Ukraine is falling apart: it has far too few soldiers left to remain a viable fighting force. And the USA and the EU are both in an uncomfortable place: the US population has become restive, what with the uncontrolled influx of immigrants and the very steep cost of maintaining the Ukrainian proxy. These two factors are reducing their standard of living, and they are not pleased.
And Ukraine, now the sow that is eating its own sty, is looking very shaky. It is being sat upon by both the EU and the US to clean up its rampant corruption. That will be very difficult, for ‘Ukraine’ and ‘corruption’ are pretty much synonymous. Zelenski, himself as corrupt as the others, and even more so, is now firing the most elevated corrupt members of his government. How long before they raise the issue of his corruption, and a war erupts in the Rada?
An interesting thing happened just two days ago: Several publications, including the UNZ Review, touted the suspicion that the helicopter crash near Kiev that killed the four most senior members of the Ukrainian Interior Ministry was not an accidental crash but a sabotage done with the objective of getting rid of those Interior Ministry men so that Zaluzhny will have a free hand to run this war. Those articles have now disappeared. But that does not alter the fact that several top-level ministers have resigned from Zelenski’s government. That cannot but be terrifying for Zelenski.
And another interesting development: Some US political or military voices are telling the Ukrainians that they are losing. ‘Home Government Russia Advance Bakhmut Siversk Zaporozhye; US Tells Ukraine It is Losing’.
https://www.veteranstoday.com/2023/01/23/russia-advance-bakhmut-siversk-zaporozhye-us-tells-ukraine-it-is-losing/
I wonder if all this is what is making Zelenski wear ever more insane facial expressions? Though he has never shown himself to be too bright, he must realise that the ‘Ukraine is winning’ lie is dead or in the final minutes of its life. So how is he to prance about in the world now?
So on what basis can Mike Whitney hold the view that Russian victory won’t end this war? Who will do the (notional) ongoing fighting: some or all of the yappy little Baltic states or Poland? Most unlikely, I propose.
The western war mongers and there proxy allies are the real instigators of this conflict in there evil desires for world domination and global governance.
These pack of imperialist globalists, and capitalist bureaucrats are the main source of the worlds problems. ***
It has to be stated that theres a lot of ignorance from undereducated idiots on this site commenting, From pro war mongers to Right wing Aryan Neo Nazi bastards. I’ve heard it all. For goodness sake educate yourselves it’s all down to who you serve good or evil.
Russia is complicit in the great reset https://edwardslavsquat.substack.com/p/yes-russia-is-complicit-in-the-great
Putin threw out the mafia at the collapse of communism
these were all jews Tony Blair allowed them into the UK
big mistake
time will tell but rothschild promised us in the thirties that the world would become commnist and homosexuals would be his advance party
his apostles were just a bit before their time
Fred B–Harvard says “honesty is a moral choice”. Why not go to the actual formula, (rather than all the expressions): Jews are a gang of thieves and murderers, therefore liars by necessity
This ‘West’, which is ruled by dual citizens of eastern origin, has lost to Russia any primacy in Western Civilization it once had. The ongoing quest for greater Truth will continue in the Heartland.
Russia do us a favor :
nuke washingstein, newyorkstein,londonstein,
rothschildstein + the rest of warmonger plutocrates !
they are enemies of the world + mainCIA troublemakers .