The Economist via Finance.Yahoo.com – Dec 29, 2022
The past year has been bruising for Russia’s economy. Foreign investors fled en masse, many never to return. Official forecasts suggest that few countries will see their gdp shrink by more this year. Only a handful of countries, including war-torn Ukraine, will end up posting worse numbers.
From another perspective, however, Russia did surprisingly well. In the days following its invasion of Ukraine in February, there was financial chaos from Moscow to Vladivostok. After Western countries imposed an unprecedented number of sanctions, the stockmarket collapsed along with the rouble. At the time it seemed Vladimir Putin’s “Fortress Russia” was crumbling.
Economists quickly downgraded their forecasts. Within days the consensus estimate of annual gdp growth in 2022 dropped from 2.5% to a contraction of 10%. Some economists were even gloomier: the White House looked for a year-on-year decline in Russian gdp of 15%. Inflation surged across the country.
Russia faced a squeeze on both the supply and demand sides of the economy. Western businesses were pulling out by the dozen, limiting what Russians could buy. Meanwhile the central bank doubled interest rates, raising debt-servicing costs and thus further squeezing demand.
Within a few weeks, however, it became clear that the worst forecasts were not going to come to pass. Sanctions have gravely damaged parts of Russia’s industrial base, such as the car sector, which relies on foreign parts. Others, in particular those enjoined by the state to help out with the war effort, have not done too badly. During the summer and the autumn economists revised up their growth forecasts. Now they expect the Russian economy to shrink by some 3-4% this year. Unemployment has barely budged, in part because firms have been told to keep workers on, even if on lower or no pay.
Two main reasons explain why Russia’s downturn has proved shallower than expected: policy and trade. In the early days of the invasion the quick actions of the central bank and regulators convinced ordinary Russians that they were serious about tackling surging inflation. Inflation expectations, having jumped, came back down again. Higher interest rates encouraged the public to return money that they had taken out from their bank accounts in the early days of the covid-19 pandemic, preventing a financial crisis.
Sanctions have been tough, but for most of 2022 there were few restrictions on the sale of hydrocarbons (that is now changing). So far this year, Russia has racked up a current-account surplus of over $220bn, twice its level the year before.
This foreign currency has helped finance imports. Many Western firms have stopped selling their goods and services to Russia. But companies in other parts of the world are only too happy to help—China’s, for instance, have stepped up. Turkey appears to have become a go-between for Western companies looking to skirt sanctions. Russian imports have recovered a long way after a sharp drop in the spring.
“Real-time” economic data paint a concerning picture for the West. At present, the Russian economy is in better shape than expected. Meanwhile Europe, weighed down by sky-high energy costs, is falling into recession.
‘Foreign investors fled en masse’ after realizing that if they could expropriate Russians’ overseas properties and funds brazenly they could do it to anyone else’s without a second thought.
As Russia has survived all the sanctions that have been thrown at it and is doing well Russia’s economic model is what we need in the xxxxhole west. And if our leaders start war against Russia by design or by error, and the 1% running this xxxx-show decide to flee, Russia’s economic model might need to be adopted alongside their aid and possibly even their currency if there is to be any chance of saving ourselves from third-world decline. Then once we’re stabilised we can create a new currency and system of government.
Sanction a country = forcing them to produce their own goods.
When the USA at last runs out of pals and trading partners, the place will be self-sanctioned. At that moment, a type of Industrial Fascism will kick in OR the nation will die — quite literally.
But for Americans in the industrial sector — we few, forgotten and misused — the world will be our oyster again. And it will also be time for some serious payback.
I love it already.
You seriously need to get your head around this type of crap. I am seriously struggling to find suitably offensive words to lambast this garbage.
The banks are bust, the Central Banks are bust. Tesla has lost 60% plus of its 2022 year start valuation. I can’t remember how much Facebook has lost. The US and UK regimes are beyond bankrupt. One Daily Fail presstitute described the UK debt as ‘terrifing’. No one even mentions the UK trade deficit! The Nazi regime borrowing goes up every month….
…. but don’t worry, the NHS is there for the UKrainian Nazis, & I bet the UK Nazi regime will be paying the Nazis who can’t fight, benefits, free housing, and even plum jobs, probably with the three letter and 4 letter agencies.
Russia has not only increased its gas and oil revenues, it has done so buy selling less. Russian pensioners got a 15% pension increase, and even though they are fighting in UKraine, the Russians are still buying huge quantities of Gold.
I watch Survival Russia for insight. Lars has done quite a few vids on Russian supermarkets. They are fairly priced, they are better stocked that UK supermarkets, which are not fairly priced. Russian supermarkets have plenty of Western brands, but we can’t buy Russian vodka, or watch RT. Some say you can, but everything I’ve tried has failed.
I was watching Suspicious Observers live chat last night. Quite a few Brits were asking how different parts of the UK will fair during the micronova, will, it isn’t good news. lol
Ahhh… the ‘Economist’… a ‘kosher’ publication if ever there was one…
They Say:… Russia has done ‘surprisingly’ well…
lt’s no ‘surprise’.. believe you me..anymore than than the rest of you doing ‘not so well’….
is..
After all.. the imbeciles that own the ‘economist’ planned it that way….
they also own the ‘markets’.. unsurprisingly..
perverts winning the batle to make your kids into homosexual deviants
https://www.theepochtimes.com/general-motors-funds-transgenderism-efforts-in-childrens-classrooms_4953407.html?utm_source=morningbriefnoe&src_src=morningbriefnoe&u
NATO/Russia are both on the same yid controlled team. The ‘sanctions’ don’t exist. Kabuki theater for the morons.
Yupp Aleister & Putin’s a Jew, so was Stalin & Hitler, but Trotsky & Lenin,Marx, Engels were 100% Aryan Christian …
Check the CBDC Tracker. Very interesting.
Carl Jones you can read RT on telegram here is the link https://tlgrm.eu/channels/@rtnews its not ideal but its better than nothing
You can read RT and Sputnik using TOR. Download it to your desktop , open and then keep changing the circuit until you hit the U.S. or other non-EU country.
Kenneth Demac Thank you for the heads up i didn’t know that. I have now installed it and works a treat