Andrew Osborne – Reuters Aug 24, 2022
Cold winters helped Moscow defeat Napoleon and Hitler. President Vladimir Putin is now betting that sky-rocketing energy prices and possible shortages this winter will persuade Europe to strong arm Ukraine into a truce — on Russia’s terms.
That, say two Russian sources familiar with Kremlin thinking, is the only path to peace that Moscow sees, given Kyiv says it will not negotiate until Russia leaves all of Ukraine.
“We have time, we can wait,” said one source close to the Russian authorities, who declined to be named because they are not authorised to speak to the media.
“It’s going to be a difficult winter for Europeans. We could see protests, unrest. Some European leaders might think twice about continuing to support Ukraine and think it’s time for a deal.”
A second source close to the Kremlin said Moscow thought it could already detect faltering European unity and expected that process to accelerate amid winter hardship.
“It will be really tough if it (the war) drags into the autumn and winter. So there’s hope they (the Ukrainians) will ask for peace,” said the source.
There was no immediate response from the Kremlin, which denies Russia uses energy as a political weapon, to a request for comment.
Ukraine and its staunchest Western backers say they have no plans to fold and U.S. officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, say they so far see no signs of support for Ukraine wavering.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, in a tweet to Ukrainians on their national day, said: “The EU has been with you in this fight from the very beginning. And we will be for as long as it takes.”
Backed by billions in U.S. and other Western military aid, training and shared intelligence, and with a series of morale-boosting attacks on high-profile Russian targets behind it, Kyiv thinks it has a chance of changing the facts on the ground.
“In order for negotiations with Russia to become possible, it is necessary to change the status quo at the front in favour of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” Mykhailo Podolyak, a Ukrainian presidential adviser, told Reuters.
“It is necessary that the Russian army suffer significant tactical defeats.”
Ukrainian forces thwarted Russian attempts to capture the capital Kyiv and the second city Kharkiv; have regularly destroyed and disrupted Russian supply lines, and sank the Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, as well as inflicting major damage on a Russian air base in annexed Crimea.
Kyiv has also long been talking about a major counter-offensive to retake the south, though Russia has been busy building up its own forces there, and it’s unclear if and when that will materialise.
TEST OF WILL
The geopolitical standoff has sent energy prices to record highs. The European Union banned Russian coal and approved a partial ban on Russian crude oil imports to punish Moscow for the “special military operation” it launched exactly six months ago on Feb. 24.
And Russia struck its own blow, sharply cutting gas exports to Europe.
European governments have sought to increase resilience to energy pressures this winter by seeking alternative supplies and pushing through energy saving measures, but few energy specialists believe they will be able to cover all their needs.
The Kremlin has blamed reduced gas flows on technical issues, Western sanctions and some countries’ refusal to pay in roubles. Record oil and gas revenues meanwhile, continue to swell Russia’s war chest.
“The Kremlin is of course counting on the possibility that we will lose interest because of our own mid-term elections in America, the UK looking for a new prime minister, Germany worried to death about gas, and the Rhine river being about six inches deep,” said retired U.S. general Ben Hodges, former commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe.
“War is a test of logistics and it’s a test of will. The test will be – do we in the West have superior will to the Kremlin? I think this is going to be the challenge.”
The first source close to the Russian authorities said Moscow in any future potential peace deal wanted to lock in territorial gains, secure the entire Donbas region, and for Kyiv to commit to military neutrality.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Tuesday said Kyiv would not agree to any proposal to freeze the current frontlines in order to “calm” Moscow.
Podolyak, his advisor, said the West was supplying Kyiv with enough weapons to “not fall” but not enough to win, adding that much greater support was needed.
Western states have refused to commit ground troops to the conflict and have refrained from supplying some military hardware because they want to avoid a wider war with Russia, which has the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world.
WAR OF ATTRITION
U.S. officials said they believed Putin was still committed to his original goal of seizing Kyiv, but couldn’t achieve that. The Russian Defence Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on that assertion.
The same U.S. officials said they had seen no signs that the Russians intended to de-escalate and thought the war would be protracted.
Andrey Kortunov, head of RIAC, a foreign policy think tank close to the Russian foreign ministry, said neither side looked like blinking first.
“Both sides apparently believe that with time their positions might get stronger,” he said. “Realistically, it’s very hard to imagine that we can come to a political settlement anytime soon.”
The two armies have long been locked in a war of attrition, with neither so far able to make a decisive breakthrough.
Faced with what Western intelligence says are serious manpower shortages after heavy losses, Russian forces have made only modest and hard-fought advances in eastern Ukraine in the last month.
Konrad Muzyka, a Poland-based military analyst, said Russian forces had the initiative in a couple of areas of eastern Ukraine but it was hard to see one side gaining the upper hand without a major boost in equipment and manpower.
“Whoever can do that will win the war,” said Muzyka.
Ukraine’s battlefield performance between now and the winter could determine the direction of the war, said Neil Melvin, a London-based analyst at the RUSI think tank.
“Ukraine needs to convince Western supporters than it can win (in battle) and have momentum. If they can show, during this period, that they can push the Russians back and keep up that momentum, it will be a win.”
But the longer the war dragged on the greater the risks of Western divisions over Ukraine become as higher fuel, gas, electricity and food prices bite.
“All the economic indicators are turning negative now. It will be harder to motivate people shivering in their apartments (to accept hardships) if Ukraine is not seen to be winning,” said Melvin, who said pressure for a political settlement could then grow, splitting both the EU and the NATO military alliance.
NUCLEAR RISKS?
Tony Brenton, a former British ambassador to Russia, said the West “at some point” might have to “push the Ukrainians into some rather uncomfortable compromises” unless Kyiv achieved some sort of breakthrough.
And he warned that a nuclear-armed Russia could escalate the conflict if it faced humiliating defeat.
“If the choice for Russia is fighting a losing war, and losing badly and Putin falling, or some kind of nuclear demonstration, I wouldn’t bet that they wouldn’t go for the nuclear demonstration,” said Brenton.
Russia has repeatedly dismissed the notion that it would need to use tactical nuclear weapons. Putin last month said that Moscow had barely got started in Ukraine and challenged the West to defeat it on the battlefield.
Samir Puri, author of Russia’s Road to War with Ukraine, said Kyiv risked being forced to live with de facto partition, with up to a quarter of its territory under Russian control, unless it could change the war’s dynamics.
“I think Russia can dig in for this for the long term and that partition is, sadly, the most probable outcome in the medium term,” said Puri.
“Cold winters helped Moscow defeat Napoleon and Hitler. ”
More BS from ((( Reuters ))) !!!
No Mr media whore Osborne the winter did not help defeat the Wehrmacht. The jew Roosevelt resupplying Stalin’s murderous regime is what helped.
“Persuade ‘Europe’ to strong arm UKraine into a truce.”
I have a guest, otherwise I’d be rolling around on my back, laffing my fecking ass off.
Why do some think Russia will ever return to selling gas to the big European players?
The fastest way for Putin to dump his staggering popularity would be to make up with Europe.
Oh, sure. There will be terms, Russian terms. The EU made their filthy bed by siding up with the US and UK. The Russians will never trust the likes of Germany again, unless there’s a coup.
The German military had their window of opportunity to save their country. Now they are totally screwed.
The Americans believe,
The UK is concerned,
The EU ‘state that’……blah blah blah.
Puppets on a string. (We all know who the Puppeteer is on the TTS)
They are the whole problem in this,
‘They’ encouraged the so called Orange colour revolution,
‘they’ did encroach more than 1 inch eastward.
‘they are encouraging & supporting the aggression.
‘they’ are lying.
It’d hard to knock a Nation, for defending their border, that is under continual
aggression & threat, whether you like them or not.
It’s certainly got nothing to do with Whitehall & the gormless scumbags within.
who, openly encourage & support the ‘Jimmy Grant navy’ besieging Kent beaches.
Backsliding shithouse creeps the lot of them… ALL of them.
Napoleon and Hitler lacked foresight when they were beaten by the Russian winter, but we’ve got idiots in charge today who will lose to Russia when their own winter defeats them back home many miles from the Russian front. It takes a special kind of moron to make that kind of f***-up.
@Tony O’Neill: In fact, the Russian winter did make the turning-point of the war. It was a strategic mistake on Hitler’s part to divert the Wehrmacht to Stalingrad. That move stretched the suppy lines too far, and the German soldiers were short even of winter clothing. That was a killer. Why Hitler did not winter-it-out while capturing the Bachu oilfields remains unexplained.
Always the invocation of “the noble war” to manipulate the emotions.
Putin is not Stalin although it suits the globalists to hint that he might be and muddy the waters further still.
The goal is Globocorp boots on the ground in Khazaria because the longer it goes on the fewer Caucasians will remain and the easier the task of raising a judeocentric new world order from the ashes
@ Sophie Johnson on August 26, 2022 at 10:38 am
“@Tony O’Neill: In fact, the Russian winter did make the turning-point of the war. It was a strategic mistake on Hitler’s part to divert the Wehrmacht to Stalingrad. That move stretched the suppy lines too far, and the German soldiers were short even of winter clothing. That was a killer. Why Hitler did not winter-it-out while capturing the Bachu oilfields remains unexplained.”
I take your point and no doubt the winter weather did not help – especially since Barbarossa was delayed by several weeks because many units of the SS had to be sent to Greece to expel the invading British. However, the Wehrmacht really had no choice. Wintering in Bachu sounds like a good idea but that would have allowed Stalin to regroup and as previously mentioned, Roosevelt was busy sending war materials to “Uncle Joe”. Another thing that needs mention is that elements of the USAF stationed within the USSR were flying sorties in support of Stalin’s troops. So A.H. would have been in no doubt that time to defeat the USSR was short. Stalingrad was a terrible mistake but not helped by the traitor Paulus surrendering when his troops were prepared to fight to the death as attested by their letters to loved ones on the last plane to leave.
WW2 – a series of what-ifs – with Europe and the rest of the world in the balance. The pressures must have been enormous and all we can do is sympathise with those soldiers of the Wehrmacht who fought for a better world.
Methinks Moscow’s “terms” will include a total de-ZOGGing of Europe…
something that ZOGUK – it goes without saying – would never accept…. especially when you see that imbecile Truss being trundled out…
in which he case “harsher” measures would probably have to be applied…
which MIGHT account for that Deagel projection of a 70% – Yes! Virginia.. SEVENTY PERCENT! – reduction of THICK Brits by 2025…
Based on the pressure that the Jew Satanists in America put on Germany not to certify NS2, the Germans, and others, face a bleak winter. It is time for Germans to overthrow the cowardly and corrupt German government. Russia can provide adequate supplies of gas at reasonable prices (for this time) via NS2.
It is the choice of German citizens to be cold this winter. I have no sympathy.
Insofar as the choices of the Germans, Germany is a defeated (in WWII), occupied power that does what the British and Americans tell it to, and the British and Americans are controlled by the Jews, unfortunately. The Germans aren’t to blame here (not actually, only ostensibly). They are, once again, being pitted against Russia, mainly because Britain wants to dominate Europe, and Russia and Germany are, as they have been since the 19th century at least, the main obstacles to Britain’s ability to do that. The pitting of Russia against Germany is a great way to dissipate the power and resources of both countries…a typical tactic of the British, i.e., “divide and conquer.” France has been an obstacle at times, but, more or less, since Napoleon was driven from power, France has been subservient to the British (i.e., the Jews who run Britain).
Referring to the globalist cheerleaders, promoters, organizers, and facilitators of western efforts in Ukraine as “Nazis” just doesn’t seem right. Perhaps some are pretending to be Nazis, but let’s not make a mistake about this: “globalist” is a latter-day latter-day euphemism for “communist,” plain and simple. Globalists seek to bring Soviet Union v2.0 to the entire world, with all the Jew-inflicted horrors thereof attendant. China has been raised up by the Illuminati (the real communist leadership) as the model of the Soviet Union v2.0, but when the Jews are able to step out of the shadows, the horrors will far beyond anything seen in China today. The Jews will be managers of SU v2.0, as they are already, and the U.S. will be enforcer. All of this is well underway.
A question in my mind is whether the Ukraine conflict isn’t some grand charade, with both sides (Russia and the “western” countries) serving as mere actors. So far, it is serving the globalist agenda in many ways: killing the commoners, de-mobilizing them through high fuel prices, destroying savings and ultimately entire economies through rampant inflation, which the British and American governments bald-facedly lie about regarding their respective rates of inflation, etc. Some say if it walks like a duck and quacks like duck, it is a duck. What do others here think about this?
Looks like the actions of Schwab’s WEF agent (Putin) are all serendipitously contributing to the WEF economic/energy objectives for Europe…lol
Interesting to note that the PM of Russia ‘Mikhail Mishustin’ is a Jew too. Aside from Putin (Jew) how many other Russian cabinet members are Jewish or of Jewish descent? More research must be done. But from the few other cabinet members I’ve seen, such as Elvira Nabiullina (head of Central Bank); Anton Siluanov (Minister Finance) Sergei Shoigu (Min. Defense) Sergei Lavrov (Min. Foreign Affairs) & Maksut Shadayev (Min Mass Media) they all appear obviously Semitic or Jewish.
Thus more proof substantiating that both sides (NATO/Antifa Russia) are managed by the same transnational cartel of Jewish Cryptocrats, coordinating their war to exterminate the white Germanic masses of Ukraine & advance WEF policies…
Actually it was ‘Lend Lease’ that contributed more to the defeat of Nazi Germany than the ‘cold winter’. Without the massive industrial production of the UK/USA supplying the Commies with enormous amounts of material the USSR was finished…but the Nazis overlooked the critical importance of this constant delivery & infusion of tanks, planes, trucks, weapons etc from 1941-45. But hey, it wasn’t the Nazis fault that millions of white morons from UK/USA decided to fight against the interests/victory of their own race & sided with anti-white Judeo-Communism…Thank the teachings of Rabbi Jesus & Karl Marx for infecting them with their cosmopolitan teachings & egalitarian ideals..
Is it possible that Europe’s winter of discontent is coming. I thought it it was something Churchill said. I was wrong.
Set in Steinbeck’s contemporary 1960 America, the novel explores the tenuous line between private and public honesty, and today ranks alongside his most acclaimed works of penetrating insight into the American condition.
Perhaps a reckoning is coming between private and public honesty…
Then there’s this one.
‘Now Is The Winter Of Our Discontent’ Soliloquy Translation. At last, our winter of troubled history has been transformed into glorious summer by my brother, King Edward, and all the clouds that had gathered threateningly above our house lie safely buried in the depths of the ocean.
Scarce domestic energy is one thing and scarce industrial energy or very expensive industrial energy is something else.
What do the globalists and international Jews want; Europe in depression or regime change and vassal state in Russia? What they are going to get is not want they want.
The reason the Germans were bogged down in Russia during WWII, was because the train lines were of a different size….thus difficult to re-supply the men.
@dwd
Excellent comment!
In fact, WHENEVER there’s a World War brewing… look no further than ZOGUK to find the MAIN CULPRIT that’s stirring the pot…
with legions of brain-dead THICK Brits merrily marching off into oblivion.. for (((The Crown)))…
@ Tony O’Neill: ‘The pressures must have been enormous and all we can do is sympathise with those soldiers of the Wehrmacht who fought for a better world.’
Agreed, wholeheartedly. And I have gratefuly taken on board your counter-points to mine. Thank you.
There is a greenshit tidal wave about to bury us all. Left wing lunaticks want to blot out the sun, impose carbon taxes because of invisible CO2 molecules are doing things that only left wing funded scientists understand. Rainbows and unicorns will save us as they shut down nuclear and coal power plants. How long until the salmon fanatics take out the damns on the columbia river?
The trend is going toward less resources, abandoning industrial efficiency for lofty environmental (and unachievable) goals. Anyone with a brain knows that the only real way to get back to mother nature all the way is to kill humans off. Humans are the problem, there are billions more coming, the population curve is still going up, and they are shutting down access to resources.
https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/
Each person consumes then pollutes. More people = bigger strip mines. More people = more garbage. So what does that mean Virginia? It means at some point the idiots in charge are going to realize their goals can only be achieved with far less people, but the population curve is vertical AND the vaxx death rate HAS NOT EVEN CAUSED A BLIP.
You have the left shutting down industry, promoting pie in the sky fantasy windmills, and the population going through the roof. And you have the failed vaxx program, it has only killed millions, when the elite have a goal of killing billions. Something must be done sayeth Lord Wrathchild!
Jacob Ratchild – “Vee must have WW3 and nuclear depopulation.”
Klaus Slob – “yes my lord, I will tell Zelensky to blow up the Russian nuclear power plant”
——————–
Then we have another megatrend in motion, like the 1970’s interest rates are going up. Mortgage rates bottomed below 3%, now they are hovering around 6%, just wait until they exceed their long term average of 8%.
8% is what I reckon the magic number to really hurt speculators and flippers.
https://www.thetruthaboutmortgage.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/MortgagePaymentChart.jpg
https://www.queenspropertyforsale.com/uploads/3/7/7/2/37728207/4908533_orig.jpg
—————-
INTEREST RATES ARE GOING UP
WHY?
THE FED HAS INCREASED THE MONEY SUPPLY BY TRILLIONS
THE FED IS RAISING RATES TO FIGHT INFLATION
TODAY jEROME POWELL SAID NO PIVOT, MUST FIGHT INFLATION
BUT THE FED INCREASED THE MONEY BY 20 trillion:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M1SL
—————–
Fed PhD in economics: “there is no relationship between money supply and inflation”
Another thing to consider is the relationship of temps to civilization cycles.
When the short term cycles go up, civilization flourishes. During the Roman epoch, temps were so warm people didn’t wear clothes they fought wars naked.
Then temps fell, Rome collapsed, we went into a dark age, we had the plague. Witch trials lasted 3 centuries.
That is what is happening now, the new cooling trend will end our current civilization. When the Thames freezes over that is like hell freezing over.
So all this talk of getting along a peace is just like trying to piss up a rope. Putin is wasting his breath trying to talk sense to thick Brits or other Zionist whored states.
Megadeath is coming. Cold weather is coming. We are still in the ice age, and a new cooling trend is going to send us back into a new dark age.
Jews will rule with an iron rod. Billions of Goyim will die horrible deaths.
People will cry out to God, but the gods care not, having created us as a slave race, they care not if we all die, in fact ET is probably working with the elite to kill us off. Just read the Old Testament about god and his great love for us.
Kill them all, spare none, kill all the animals and children, take the virgins for wives. Yeah that is the god of the Bible you adore and whoreship, you damn fools!
Rootin Tootin Putin’s “terms” are the same as the prehensile-nosed gay comic’s who runs jookraine.
Freeze Starve and Kill Goyim.
He’s betting on nothing, he’s doing whatever the H they tell him to do….and say.
Get Real.
I forgot to add…. good comment Yukon, wish you still had a blog.
People need to go to Electroverse and actually learn that climate is controlled by solar cycles and water vapor…period. Condensation heats and evaporation cools – a negative feedback loop enabling life on our economic slavery joo planet.
Both are decreasing right now. The current grand solar minimum will peak around 2030 but last much longer and states like Michigan will be under glacier year round – it happens quickly – need I say we’re way OVERDUE for a real ice age as well, which btw occured in the order of 100 years or even less – from ice core data.
Gee, this just sorta kinda might have been known for a while by the scummies at the top and mighta sorta explain a few things?
In the end I care not – Samsara world and everyone has the materialistic celebrity-rotted proxy jew-mind at this point.