Ukrainian service personnel unpack US supplied Javelin anti-tank missiles. Click to enlarge

Peter Beaumont – The Guardian May 4, 2022

Moscow steps up missile strikes on key infrastructure as flow of western weapons becomes focus of war.

Russia is stepping up airstrikes on key Ukrainian supply lines delivering billions of pounds worth of western arms to the country, including on railway lines and warehousing.

With Moscow and Kyiv-locked in a race to shape the conditions for the current phase of the war in Ukraine, the rapid and growing flow of weapons supplied by Ukraine’s western backers has become an increased focus for both sides.

On Tuesday Russian airstrikes hit six train stations in central and western Ukraine as the Kremlin stepped up its targeting of key infrastructure, including electrical and water supply substations.

A Russian cruise missile also hit a hangar in Odesa housing Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones as well as missiles and ammunition from the United States and Europe, according to the Russian ministry of defence.

As sources indicated that the UK intends to supply Kyiv with cargo drones to carry supplies on the battlefields in the east and south, the flow of western weapons heading for Ukraine was turning into a flood amid US fears of Russian plans to annex the separatist territories of Donetsk and Luhansk in the east, and the Kherson region in the south.

The early focus of weapons supplies to Ukraine was initially small arms and defensive equipment but that has changed in recent weeks, not least after the announcement by the US president, Joe Biden, of a $33bn (£26bn) support package for Ukraine including $20bn in military aid.

Speaking last month, Biden talked of the need for the increased supply of heavier weapons to Ukraine, describing it as a “critical window” as Russia shifted its focus to the east.

The supply of weapons to Ukraine has been given a boost after the military experienced shortages and stockpiles of ammunition have dwindled. But it has also been driven by an increasingly vocal view among western leaders, including Biden and Boris Johnson, that the threat posed by Russia requires that it be “weakened”.

The US has already rushed about $3.4bn worth of weapons to Ukraine since Russia invaded on 24 February, including anti-aircraft Stinger systems, Javelins, ammunition and body armour.

Among the weapons systems being shipped to Ukraine by the US include C-4, howitzers, Mi-17 helicopters, armoured Humvees, M113 personnel carriers, Switchblade drones, and M18A1 Claymore anti-personnel mines, with defence sources confirming that dozens of artillery pieces had arrived in country.

US weapons that have already arrived in Ukraine include more than 5,500 Javelin anti-tank rocket systems, which are credited with the heavy toll on Russian armour. The latest arms shipments come on top of the Pentagon’s confirmation last month that Ukraine had received unspecified fighter airplanes and aircraft.

The EU has earmarked €450m (£379m) for arms for Ukraine including air-defence systems, anti-tank weapons and ammunition.

The UK is supplying Mastiff heavily armoured patrol vehicles, the cargo drones announced this week, and has supplied Ukraine with Starstreak anti-aircraft missiles, 800 anti-tank missiles, and precision munitions.

The rapid increase in arms supplies comes as Russian forces have changed tactics since the first phase of the war, before Russian troops withdrew from their failed assault around Kyiv to focus operations on eastern and southern areas of Ukraine. Russian forces are now relying more heavily on the intensive use of artillery and rockets against largely outgunned Ukrainian defences, not least in the Donbas region.

Ukraine has also received weapons from other sources, including Germany which – after initial hesitation – has become one of the biggest arms suppliers to Kyiv, sending Gepard armoured anti-aircraft system. The Czech Republic has also sent T-72 battle tanks, while Canada announced last month it had delivered heavy artillery, including M777 howitzers.

A Ukrainian military official described last week the increased focus of Russian strikes on infrastructure being aimed at disrupting Kyiv’s access to western weapons.

“It is my opinion that they didn’t believe the west would give Ukraine the necessary heavy weapon supplies, so now the process has started they feel they need to do something about that. Because western weapons and Ukrainian combat experience combined give us a big advantage.”

Speaking during a visit to a semiconductor factory that produces chips for the Javelin missile system on Tuesday, Biden justified his policy. “This fight is not going to be cheap, but caving to aggression would be even more costly,” he told workers.

“You’re allowing the Ukrainians to defend themselves, and quite frankly, we’re making fools of the Russian military in many instance.”

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