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Introduction – April 11, 2022

First it needs to be understood why Russia is so opposed to many of its neighbours like Estonia and Latvia being part of the NATO military alliance. Now Finland wants to join them. This puts more pressure on Moscow as all three are effectively in Moscow’s backyard.

This will allow NATO to deploy troops and military hardware right on Moscow’s western flank. It would be like putting a Russian armoured division right on the Mexican border with the U.S.

It’s a day’s drive from Latvia to Moscow so NATO forces would almost literally breathing down the Kremlin’s neck. So that if the U.S. decided on a first strike, Russia would have little time to defend itself or, more importantly retaliate. Rendering the principle of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), which has kept the world from nuclear conflict for decades, obsolete.


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Finland preparing for Russian ‘consequences’ if it joins NATO: top MoD official

Aaron Hehta – Breaking Defense April 8, 2022

By all signs, Finland is heading towards a decision on joining the NATO alliance within the next few months, if not weeks. And in the process, a top Finnish defense official tells Breaking Defense, the country has to prepare for the reality of a furious, but unpredictable response from Moscow.

“Of course, Russia will react, but we don’t know how. And we need to be prepared” should Finland decide to join NATO, said Esa Pulkkinen, the permanent secretary at Finland’s Ministry of Defense. “We need to be ready, of course, to face consequences.”

NATO’s vaunted Article 5 protections do not kick in for aspirant members, only ratified ones. That means from the moment Finland — and perhaps its neighbor Sweden — declares the intention to join NATO until the moment every alliance member has ratified their ascension, there is no guarantee other nations will come to their aid in response to military action by Moscow.

Pulkkinen, a retired lieutenant general who now serves as the top civil servant in Finland’s defense ministry, is at the center of the question of how Finland could handle any potential Russian threat. Speaking to Breaking Defense this week in Washington, he acknowledged that Russia’s reaction is just one of many aspects that have to be weighed in the NATO discussion.

And while Pulkkinen downplayed the likelihood of Russia launching a second full invasion of a European country, he also said his country couldn’t afford to rule it out completely.

“You cannot rule out anything. I mean, that’s something that you need to do, assess the risks. You should not exclude anything. But that risk assessment, I think, is taking place in Finland now,” he said.

Already Russia has issued warnings, like in the first week of the Ukraine conflict when a top Russian spokesperson said that the Finland and Sweden joining NATO would have “serious military and political consequences, which would require our country to make response steps.” Russia’s invasions of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014 were seen, in part, as a way to block those nations from moving to join the Western alliance. Which means any decision to join NATO could set up a perilous moment when Russia’s best strategic course, at least in Moscow’s eyes, might well be to attack.

 

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