Sky News — Feb 5, 2022

Three new signs have been observed which suggest a Russian invasion of Ukraine could be imminent.

The building of a field hospital, the movement of additional troops to the border, and the deployment of the Russian military police suggest yet more invasion preparations are now in place.

Analysts have told Sky News there are now few ways for Russia to escalate further.

Some of the indicators being observed may be the result of military exercises, but there is little way of knowing Russia’s true plans.

Two of the indicators have been observed at a training camp in Russian occupied Crimea.

The camp has seen an uptick in activity since December.

This includes the appearance of four light brown oblong tents and a misshapen structure to the north.

A military analyst said the structures were likely to be a field hospital.

It may be a significant development as field hospitals are designed to treat wounded soldiers, although it could be being used as part of an exercise.

There also seems to have been an influx of personnel at the camp.

Sixty large tents, each capable of housing 20 men, have been erected in the centre of the camp.

To the south a further 15 tents have appeared this year, including at least seven seen in this frame.

Faint rectangular indentations in the snow near the hospital show where 23 large tents previously stood, all of which have been moved.

It means the estimated capacity of the camp has increased by more than 1,000 troops – from around 460 to over 1,500 since 30 December.

And it is not just in Angarsky that tents have appeared.

They have also sprung up at several bases in Belarus, to the north of Ukraine. The Russian government says this activity is linked to ongoing military exercises which are due to take place from 10-20 February.

At Novoozerne, a base 65 miles northwest of Angarsky in Crimea, troop tents have appeared to accompany the equipment that has been there since last spring.

An analyst from Janes, the defence intelligence company, said this site is some distance from official training grounds. Yet the images below show that tents have been erected since December that could accommodate over 1,000 troops.

The third development concerns the movement of equipment belonging to the Rosgvardia – a Russian military police force – in the direction of the Ukrainian border.

According to Kirill Mikhailo, a researcher at the investigative group Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), the movement is significant as the Rosgvardia are the Russian units “best suited” to performing counter-insurgency activity behind an advancing army.

These specialists have previously been used in operations in Syria.

Researchers at CIT have been analysing social media posts to track their equipment moving in Russia.

They spotted that a truck being transported south from northwest Russia had the gold emblem of the security force on its side, as seen below.

CIT analysed social media videos to identify that emblems on vehicles (right) matched that of the Rosgvardia units (left). Click to enlarge

The original TikTok video which CIT analysed can be viewed below. It also shows several other heavy-duty military vehicles on the train thought to belong to the Rosgvardia.

@ivashka41♬ оригинальный звук – ivashka

Mr Mikhailo said it was not just the presence of the Rosgvardia equipment, but its geographic origin, that was alarming:

“The geography is what is significant about what we’re seeing – we’ve seen Rosgvardia cargo flights and convoys coming from many different places. In 2020, when we last saw them move, they basically only came from Moscow and St Petersburg. This is different.”

Some of the Rosgvardia cargo flights have gone to Crimea, and although the train convoys have moved towards Ukraine, Mr Mikhailo says it is not known precisely where they have gone.

Russia’s intentions remain unclear.

The recent developments, which also include reports of Russian blood supplies being stationed near the Ukrainian border, mean there is now only a limited amount of further escalation possible.

The final movements that might be expected before an invasion are those of aircraft. An analyst from Janes, the defence intelligence company, told Sky News:

“We’ve seen some aircraft moving, but not a huge amount yet. That’s one of the things we are watching for now.”

Russia’s claims that the activity is purely connected to military exercises cannot be disproved.

And Mr Mikhailo, who is based in Ukraine, said there may still be more troops to be deployed to the border ahead of any intended invasion.

But he also said there was one thing that he would find particularly alarming:

“At this point it will be ominous when the convoys stop. It means they will have brought everything they wanted.”

Writing and reporting: Kieran Devine
Graphics: Megan Watkinson; Phoebe Rowe

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