David Ignatius – Washington Post Dec 21, 2021
The Biden administration is studying whether and how the United States could support an anti-Russian insurgency inside Ukraine if President Vladimir Putin invades that country and seizes substantial territory.
The planning, described Sunday by a knowledgeable official, includes ways to provide weapons and other support to the Ukrainian military to resist invading Russian forces — and similar logistical support to insurgent groups if Russia topples the Ukrainian government and a guerrilla war begins.
The weapons the United States might provide include shoulder-fired antiaircraft missiles. The CIA’s delivery of such weapons, known at the time as “Stingers,” had a devastating effect on Soviet forces during their 10-year war in Afghanistan, from 1979 to 1989.
The administration task force, which includes the CIA and other key agencies, has been studying how insurgencies were organized against the Soviets in Afghanistan and Russian-backed forces in Syria — and also against the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan. It’s an ironic example of turning the tables, weighing whether and how to inflict harm similar to what U.S. forces have suffered in recent years.
The task force includes a legal team that is studying how any assistance to a Ukrainian insurgency could be provided without violating U.S. or international laws.
The administration’s basic goal is to impose costs if Putin invades Ukraine, without directly involving U.S. troops — a step that President Biden has ruled out. White House officials believe that threatening direct military intervention would be a mistake because Biden isn’t willing to risk all-out war over Ukraine. Gray-zone tactics are better.
The insurgency planning supplements other Biden administration efforts to raise the stakes for Putin. U.S. officials have warned that America and its European allies would impose severe economic sanctions that could cripple the Russian economy. And NATO announced plans last week to move troops forward, toward Russia, if Putin ignores warnings. That would leave Russia more vulnerable to Western military pressure following an invasion, the opposite of what Putin hopes to achieve.
In framing these contingency plans, the administration is trying to strike a balance. The White House wants to deter an invasion, without offering the Russian president a pretext for escalating the crisis. Too much saber rattling could bring about precisely the scenario that Washington hopes to avoid.
“We are prepared to consider a number of things that we have not considered in the past, and the results will be very profound on the Russian Federation, but I’m not going to go into details,” a senior administration official told reporters Friday. The U.S. arsenal of cyberweapons is formidable, but officials haven’t discussed such options.
A delicate balancing act is also obvious in the administration’s efforts to seek a diplomatic settlement to the crisis. The United States has said it’s prepared to negotiate a settlement within the framework of the Minsk Protocols of 2014 and 2015, which would likely mean quasi-autonomy for Russian-speaking separatists in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine. But Putin has demanded far more, including a guarantee that Ukraine will never join NATO. Biden has refused to consider such a diktat, even though Washington isn’t seeking NATO membership for Kyiv.
While rejecting Putin’s maximalist proposals for spheres of influence in Eastern Europe, the administration wants to keep negotiations open. Speaking Friday of Putin’s demands, the senior official said: “There are some things in those documents that the Russians know will be unacceptable. … But there are other things that we are prepared with work with and that merit some discussion.”
In military terms, the Ukrainian army isn’t a match for Russian troops, but it’s 50 percent larger than the force Ukraine had in 2014, when Russia seized Crimea. In addition, sources said that about 500,000 Ukrainians have had some militia training since 2014, and that at least a million weapons are in private hands. These would be among the building blocks for an insurgency. U.S. planners have discussed weapons caches and other logistical tools that could support a potent “stay-behind network” if Russia invades.
The United States has supplied Javelin antitank weapons to the Ukrainian military, initially under tight controls. Similar controls would probably apply to any antiaircraft weapons, to make sure they didn’t fall into terrorist hands. Although the United States might not supply the antiaircraft weapons directly, deliveries could be made by U.S. allies or partners.
A small number of U.S. Special Operations forces have been advising the Ukrainians, as part of a U.S. military team of about 150 people there now. The CIA also has a paramilitary branch with experience in organizing insurgencies in Afghanistan and Syria.
When U.S. troops were poised on the border of Iraq in 2003, U.S. officials didn’t consider the grinding, enervating war of counterinsurgency that lay ahead. The Biden administration believes that Putin may be on the verge of making a similar mistake in Ukraine. They hope he doesn’t make the wrong choice, but if he does invade, they want to make it hurt.
Nonsense. The Russians will wipe out the Ukrainian military in hours. The US and UK (the ever faithful dog) will then face the problem of getting their ‘advisors’ out before their capture and public display. There will be Saigon/Kabul style pictures of desperate people climbing into helicopters in Kiev.
because of nature the ukrainians cannot
fight a partisan war like the vietkong .
USA deep state always misses the mark .
Washington Post, CIA operation. Just look at the language. They talk about a post Russian insugency/guerrilla war, but they don’t admit that Russia has a lot of support in Ukraine & a majority who can fight, do not want to fight the Russians.
Russia says US mercenaries are plotting war crimes, but hold back on saying their are substantial mercenary forces in Ukraine.
The WP’s concern the US will want to avoid breaking ‘international law’ is a joke and jibe at Putin’s long list of US war crimes. If this fake news rag spews this rubbish, I don’t see the US backing down, & even if the US does back down, the UK will do all it can to start a war with Russia & keep it mired on the ground with problems.
Putin knows the game, he is going to smash the Ukraine regime, & as I said the other day, Putin won’t let mercenary ex special forces escape like he did in South Ossetia.
As looks likely, Russia will take all of Ukraine & we can expect the most advanced Russian weapons to be stationed in Western Ukraine. This war will be a seven day war, tops. Russian tanks will likely be in Kiev within 3 or 4 days, because most of the regular Ukraine milirary will go awol.
The USA has a habit of abandoning its allies
Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslavakia in 68 and then the cubans as well
all were whipped up by the CIA to rebel under the promise the USA would step in to help and they did noe of it
The USA is fine and dandy taking people off the street and torturing the hell out of them at places like guantanamo bay
but not when the meat hits the fan
It’s really sad that America is itching for blood. America needs to suffer catastrophic losses and a huge beatdown. America’s Military is not brave or Noble it a Terrorist organisation masquerading as a Military. Where ever it goes it leaves nothing but total destruction , misery and a landscape that is uninhabitable. A World class bully. I’ve seen the work of America close up with my own eyes. I listened to people from Vietnam, Iraq, Serbia & Syria its all bad.
When you look at America domestically its a total lost cause. A recent Congress Representative Mary Gay Scanlon was robbed and car jacked at Gun point in South Philadelphia. America is falling apart at the seems. Its not safe to visit nor Holiday unless you are packing.
Ukraine President has deemed X President Poroshenko a Treasonous Person. I bet 100% that this was at the request of America & Joe Bidens Administration.
America or is using Ukraine & the sooner it wakes up and smells the coffee the better.
Has life Improved in Ukraine since the coup of 2014,
House prices,GDP, Cost of living, Fuel prices, imports, exports, heathcare, infrastructure, relations with neighbouring countries improved.
7 years on at America’s request Ukraine is teetering on the verge of collapse. One side wants to invade Crimea the other side wants to eat CYANIDE.
Russia is well within its rights to defend itself and I doubt America can do anything legally.
America will impose Sanctions which are against International Law.
America should Be Nuked l
Russia should Give America 1000 911 in one day.
America doesn’t even care about its own.
Because if America cared The People in Flint Michigan would have clean water.
The real culprits of September 11 2001 would have been dealt with.
America cares more about Israel then it cares for its own citizens & their Saftey.
I know many good Americans whom believe the American Government is full blown Psychotic & in desperate need of euthanasia.
When those Body bags of dead American Advisors start coming back on C-130 C-17 GM III the American public will say here we go again.
Democrats not even in the Whitehouse 12 months and already salivating for a War.
I’ve noticed on TV drama trailers they’re back to pushing Russia as the enemy again. For decades Russia was the bogeyman, then for twenty years it was the Arabs but now it’s Russia again.
Somebody should inform Amerikan producers they’re the bad guys.
Entirely based on an invasion that hasn’t happened.
Just send in the U.S. military trannies, queers, rapists, and sexual mutalated freaks with Kamal Toe Harris and King shit the pants Biden leading the charge. Defeat would come to the Russians as they die from hysterical laughter.
False flag coming, as Russia noted recently.
R.C.
America and Britain haven’t got a hope in hell of defeating Russia and that’s Russia on its own. Add China to the mix and it’ll be a slaughter, which of course is precisely what this is all about.
The jew, yet again, is drawing the stupid goyim into a war against one another, with all factions being controlled by the jew. And they never learn.
Whether it be the Crimean, the Boer, WW1, WW2 and all wars after that, this is nothing more than the gathering of moronic goyim to kill other moronic goyim who fail to see what’s going on.
And while the American and British forces are off invading, who’s looking after home?
Is that not WHAT these morons are supposed to be protecting?
So, reality is, we lose and then the invasion begins of Chinese into the Anglosphere (N.America, Europe, Australasia). And these morons in the armed forces are incapable of seeing that.
Q: What do you call it when all the ‘opposing’ heads of State on both sides (Biden, Zelensky, Putin, Johnson) wear yarmulkes?
A: A staged Zionist conflict.
“While rejecting Putin’s maximalist proposals for spheres of influence in Eastern Europe, the administration wants to keep negotiations open.”
So not wanting NATO military infrastructure and missiles right on Russian borders is some kind of “maximalist proposal for spheres of influence”? LOL!
If Russia invades Ukraine (and/or any other countries bordering Russia) it’s because they were forced into it by the machinations of the Satanic U.S. “government.” And “raising the stakes” won’t work to deter them because they have been backed into a corner by relentless U.S./NATO military expansion. As Putin has already explained, they have nowhere to retreat to and have no other choice but to respond with military force, as any other country would do under the circumstances.
The fact that Russia got bogged down in Afghanistan was simply because uncle Joe was no longer in charge. With the current crop of generals, don’t expect a Russian incursion to take longer than 24 hours. No resistance afterwards. I also expect them to keep going. Calais or bust.
We should know before long.
Anonymous:
Sigon/Kabul pictures… they were planned, Jews in Hollywood need material. Ukrainia will be real, this is why the US & UK will use mercenaries.
Pig-swill Fly:
They never stopped demonising Russia. The fake news hates on Russian sheeple so much that it is hard to comprehend.
Debal’tseve anyone:
The Ukrops will surrender by the tens of thousands—-happy to get a decent hot meal—-and a Russian Passport:
The Zealots will shed their uniforms, don their civvies, and head for the EU borders as fast as they can—- where, no doubt. they will be welcomed as hero’s: (no Passports being handed out though—-but they might get a free Spam Sandwich or two)
Eventually they will return home—-desperate for a Russian Passport and a good job:
Meanwhile, Ze comedian will be found doing the clubs in Israel—-or enjoying Russian hospitality in a remote “Gulag”:
Ohhh… Come on , all of you pessimist ??
In case of conflict, Ukraine versus Russia ?? I see that within 48 Hrs Ukrainian Troops parading on the Red Square in Moscow, of course escorted by Russian Troops & then sent to Club Med holiday camps resorts in Magadan & Kolyma
These Ukranian border defenders ( although they may be brave ) should be no match on the average against Russian special forces leading the excursion. Of course if the Russians invade these border forces may luck out in actions in several pockets…but in the end they will be swept away. At this time the Russians have had enough and are quite determined. As they say…”Watch out for the Russian Bear”
Putin, Xi, Biden, Johnson, Macron etc……………all simultaneously ” close down the country ” at the count of three, because of a flu bug. They’re all one world government puppets. Any war planned is a fix. The real war is a spiritual war.
Putin would do well to crush the Zio-Ukrainian scum.
However he has to deal with a lot of domestic terrorism and sabotage. This is the latest of his naval projects to have been destroyed.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10331843/New-Russian-stealth-warship-suffers-225million-damage-catching-fire-construction.html
I wish him well.
….Maybe I’ll go volunteer, load up on goodies, then ‘defect’ over to the Donetsk side!
What a great opportunity
PS: ‘Coffee or Die’?
Black Rifle Coffee is EXACTLY why I cringe when I hear the term ‘patriot’ used with people/outfits likes this, MAGA’ers, Q-cumbers, so called ‘patriot groups’, etc.
Even phonies like toothless Henry Shively over at fromthetrenches, who SHOUTS the Constitution and the Bill of Rights…..
And then bans anyone who comments with something he doesn’t like or agree with, or you point out some of his nonsense. He just goes vaxtard on you for exercising YOUR 1st amendment.
‘When I want your opinion I’ll give it to you’
So many phonies out there it’s a joke. Gotta watch these people closely