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Rixon Stewart – Dec 15, 2021

Like most real news this hasn’t featured prominently in the mainstream Western media, if at all. It should though because it may mark a major new development in the West’s face-off with Russia.

On Tuesday, Dec. 14, President Putin issued what was essentially an ultimatum to the West. He demanded immediate negotiations to halt the Western military alliance’s expansion eastwards.

According to the Kremlin press office:

“Vladimir Putin again stressed the need for launching negotiations with the United States and NATO, without any delay, for elaborating international legal guarantees of security for our country that rule out the alliance’s further eastward expansion and the deployment of weapon systems endangering Russia on the territory of Ukraine and other neighboring states,” the statement says. (Tass Dec 14, 2021)

In other words Putin is now calling for negotiations — “without and delay” — to prevent potential conflict with the West. This comes as Russia’s military continues its build-up close to its border with Ukraine. US analysts claim that Russia could have as many as 175,000 troops within striking distance of Ukraine by the end of January.

That would certainly be enough for Russia to launch a ground invasion.

Russia and Belarus recently held war games that involved 200,000 troops. Was this a practise for an invasion of Ukraine? Click to enlarge

Compounding matters is the reported presence of NATO troops in the region. Substantial numbers are already in Poland where the U.S. Army is setting up a $30 million Command and Control Headquarters. In addition to which hundreds of UK Special Forces troops are reportedly deploying in Ukraine itself, some of them close to the border with Russia, ready to assist any fledgling insurgency (see below).

This is probably what prompted Putin to issue the ultimatum. The West’s incremental military advance eastwards is now approaching Russia’s own border and like many Russians he sees that as a potential threat. Meaning that if he decides to go to war he will have popular support.

However, Putin needs to be careful because he might be playing into the West’s hands.

While we have no doubt that the Russian army could take Ukraine – and that, crucially the West will avoid direct military confrontation if it does – Russia could still be walking into a trap if it invades.

Certainly, Russia would secure the main Ukrainian urban centres and transport corridors with relative ease but on Ukraine’s western fringes it might find itself in a drawn-out, debilitating guerrilla campaign, albeit hundreds of miles away but still close to its very border; just as it once was in Afghanistan.

This would be a NATO commander’s dream come true. They could undermine Russia’s growing military power using a third party, which they could then supply and equip without getting directly involved themselves; exactly as they once did with the Taliban.

Is history about to repeat itself, but in Eastern Europe rather than Afghanistan? Stay tuned. Ed.