Philip Giraldi — The Unz Review Nov 14, 2026
There are a number of things that we know to be true about the currently relatively quiet war between the United States and Israel against Iran. First, the calm is reflective of the fact that the US was unable to achieve any of its military or strategic objectives in the three prior iterations of the conflict even though there have been repeated claims from President Donald Trump and the acolytes that surround him that the Iran War is effectively over. That is because, in their exaggerated view, Iran has been defeated in every aspect of its armed forces and denied development of a nuclear weapon, which could have destabilized the entire region and threatened Israel.
Ironically, of course, Israel already has a formidable nuclear arsenal as well as systems to deliver the bombs on target. It has threatened to attack Europe, the so-called Samson Option, if it finds itself facing defeat from any of its neighbors. The reality confirmed by both US and Israeli intelligence is that Iran stopped any moves to develop its own nuke as long ago as 2003. So the war made no sense due to any kind of threat emanating from Tehran and only should be seen as a plot by Israel to eliminate the only remaining state that truly challenged its military supremacy in the Gulf Region with the US doing the heavy lifting in terms of casualties and expenditure of military resources as well as paying the bills and providing political cover.
To be sure, the pause in the fighting is largely due to the unexpected results of the recent elections both in Israel and the United States. The extremely unpopular “Iran War” was not on any ballot but it clearly weighed heavily on the minds of voters who flipped the US Congress eliminating the Republican majority and may have gotten rid of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who has made the war his raison d’etre. Those who want to see more rapid change must also consider the fact that Netanyahu’s likely replacement by way of a coalition is a former general Gadi Eisenkot who also probably is going to be a hawk on national security issues that will support renewing the war against the Persians.
So what comes next? Trump has declared that he no longer interested in negotiations with Iran and he has ordered Vice President JD Vance to cease and desist in any initiatives in that direction, instead using his good offices to deal only with domestic issues. Reliable sources suggest that the admonishment and demotion of the vice president was largely due to his having made a public statement that it was time to re-examine the US relationship with Israel, which had more than any other factor led to the war. Trump is not willing to either make or permit such a judgement no matter how much it is called for and has been under heavy pressure from the immensely powerful Israel Lobby ever since Vance raised the issue.
Even as stupid as he is, Trump cannot help but be aware that the handling of the issue of Israel as being in control of the White House did grave damage to the GOP in the election. Netanyahu is trying to bail out his political failure in his own election by reviving the war and has been pressuring the president, to include daily phone calls, some of which Trump has refused to take. A call last week reportedly became a screaming “shouting match from hell” between the two men as Trump would not agree to a resumption of fighting.
Many knowledgeable observers in the US and also in the Middle East believe that the war against Iran will again erupt before the end of the year, a belief that they base on the movement of troops and ships by the Pentagon to the Middle East region, movements that include at least three carrier groups and multiple bombers and refueling aircraft. And they also point to the fact that even though the Democrats won by being nominally against the war, the Congressional leadership that is being groomed to take over in January is far from anti-war and is, to the contrary, passionately devoted to Israel and AIPAC money.
Hakeem Jeffries has already made it crystal clear why he should not become the next Speaker of the House and he is being challenged, but he has the party establishment behind him. He was asked by a journalist whether he supports removing the several provisions that deepen US defense cooperation and intelligence sharing with Israel from the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) – an obvious yes given the election outcome! – but refused to address the question and instead gave a 1990s answer about a two-state solution for the problems in the Middle East. Jeffries knows perfectly well that a two-state answer has long been dead due to Israeli actions designed to turn Palestine into a Jews-only state with no rights for Christians and Muslims. And Jeffries is joined by Senator Chuck Schumer, who is also being challenged as Speaker of the Senate, who long ago declared himself to be in Hebrew the “shomer” or protector of Israel and has never voted against giving weapons, money and political support to the Jewish state. Both men are major recipients of AIPAC money and they will lead a Congress that has a clear majority within the Democratic Party as well as among Republicans in support of Israel and its behavior.
And a recent development in Washington when a vote was scheduled on a Representative Thomas Massie proposal to impeach Secretary of War Pete Hegseth largely due to his sponsorship of the Iran War demonstrates how the Democrats will likely finesse any and all issues even peripherally relating to Israel. The vote to pass through the resolution from the House of Representatives to the Senate for a final approval was scheduled for a time window that was identified and notified to all Congressmen. Eleven Congressmen, including Nancy Pelosi, did not make it, however, and lacking those votes the proposal failed in the House. It turned out that at least some of the missing Congressmen, all major recipients of AIPAC and Lobby money, claimed that they had been caught in traffic in and around the Capitol and could not make in back in time to participate. It also turned out that there may have indeed been somewhat of a traffic problem around Capitol Hill at that time apparently because there was a demonstration by a group that some have linked to AIPAC. Funny how that played out but it meant that the pro-Iran War and thereby pro-Israel Hegseth survived!
What the Hegseth incident reveals is that the Democrats, who will have a clear Congressional majority starting in January, cannot be relied upon if the issue is even peripherally related to punishing or even admonishing Israel. If the NDAA Section 219 and its related intelligence authorizations are approved, the US Defense Department and Intelligence Agencies will be partners with Israel and also will find the Pentagon budget accessible to Mossad and the Israel Defense Force (IDF). Trump has said that the current funding arrangement that expires in 2028 whereby Israel gets $3.8 billion every year to help pay for its “defense” will end. What he does not mention is that Israel and the US are now discussing initiating a new even larger payment that will run until 2033. There is the joke circulating in Washington about how no matter whom one votes for as president in the US, one always gets John McCain. The joke should actually be that no matter whom one’s ballot is cast for, one always gets Israel.
Philip M. Giraldi, Ph.D., is Executive Director of the Council for the National Interest, a 501(c)3 tax deductible educational foundation (Federal ID Number #52-1739023) that seeks a more interests-based U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East. Website is https://councilforthenationalinterest.org address is P.O. Box 2157, Purcellville VA 20134 and its email is inform@cnionline.org.