British troops in a NATO drill with their Estonian counterparts near the border with Russia

Maira Butt – The Independent Oct 6, 2026

Estonia is moving troops closer to the Russian border and scaling up its weaponry over fears of future attacks on its territory, according to a report.

The move comes as part of a shift towards an “active defence” strategy after weeks of warnings by European heads of state and Nato leaders about an impending attack by Russian designed to test the alliance’s mutual defence clause.

As the country lacks its own air force it would be entirely dependent on the Nato alliance to secure the safety of its skies.

Estonia’s military and intelligence chiefs do not think that Russia will attack in the next two years but still believe Moscow is actively preparing for a future war with the country, according to the Financial Times.

They fear Vladimir Putin could initiate a small-scale incursion to test Article 5 and that neither they nor Nato are credibly deterring such a plan.

“Deterrence is not working,” a senior Estonian military intelligence official told the publication. “The critical period to address that, for all of us in the Baltic states, is in the next one to four years.””

The main units of Estonia’s 1st Infantry Brigade, which serve as the country’s main combat force, will be permanently stationed in Johvi, approximately 50km from the Russian border.

“We have to start from the border and win from the first battles,” said Colonel Tarmo Kundla, commander of the First Brigade

New military facilities will be built to accommodate the forces. They were previously located further away in Tapa, which is around 130km away. A new military base will also be constructed in Narva that will accommodate up to 1,000 troops.

“Credible deterrence requires us to make aggression against us unthinkable. Our aim is clear: to keep the enemy and the destruction of war away from Estonian territory,” said Estonia’s ministry of defence said.

In July 2026, the UK government announced a new UK-Estonia defence roadmap that will deepen military co-operation and “strengthen Nato’s eastern flank”.

The move would see UK troops in Estonia to increase from 800 to 1,200 equipped with high-tech kit by April 2027.

Last week, Estonia accused Russia of being behind arson attacks on defence firm Milrem Robotics. The prime minster Kristen Machal said that security services had gathered evidence showing the incident aligned with broader Russian sabotage efforts across Europe.

Nato allies France and Sweden expressed solidarity with Estonia following the outcome of the investigation.

It comes as airspace violations across Europe have been increasing at an accelerating speed, including in Estonia.

In one of the starkest warnings by a western security service yet, Danish intelligence said last month that Moscow could launch an attack against Nato in months. It described the threat as of a “low but growing risk”.

A report by America’s Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) released on the same day suggested that Russia is preparing to carry out drone strikes in Europe targeting France, Spain and Italy from the sea.

In the same week it emerged that Russia has boosted its shadow fleet by more than one third as it looks to keep oil flowing.

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