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Chris Lunday and Gordon Rapinski – Politico Sept 12, 2025

The German military is pressing for a dramatic expansion of its ranks by 2029 and beyond as it looks to become Europe’s dominant army, according to a classified memo obtained by POLITICO.

In the memo, army chief Lt. Gen. Alfons Mais warns that Berlin’s current force levels fall far short of what NATO expects under new planning targets for 2035.

The general outlines a sweeping buildup that would nearly double active posts and more than triple home defense units within the next decade. The paper, sent to the defense ministry and Bundeswehr inspector general earlier this month, argues that only a much larger army will give Germany the credibility to deter adversaries and fight a high-intensity war alongside allies.

The army’s demands come against a difficult political backdrop. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has pledged to turn the Bundeswehr into “Europe’s strongest conventional army” and take a greater responsibility for the continent’s defense — a promise that thrilled NATO allies but raised questions at home about how to deliver the numbers.

Recruitment remains a chronic problem. Despite record defense budgets, the Bundeswehr struggles to attract and retain new soldiers, with nearly a quarter of recruits dropping out within their first six months of service.

The government is already working on legislation that would require all 18-year-old men to register for military service, although joining up will remain voluntary. However, if certain recruitment targets are not met, conscription could return. The final bill is set to be voted in the Bundestag by mid-December.

The military memo sets out a demand for around 90,000 active posts and 64,000 non-active posts by 2029 — up from today’s 62,000 active and 37,000 non-active soldiers. Looking further ahead, the army foresees the need for an additional 45,000 active and 15,000 non-active posts by 2035 and beyond.

A key focus is Germany’s territorial defense command. Under the “Organizational Plan Germany,” its ranks are set to swell to roughly 138,000 posts by 2029, including at least 9,500 new active soldiers. That would make home defense forces the single largest component of the future German army.

The expansion is tied directly to NATO’s new force planning goals, agreed at a June summit in The Hague, which called on member states to prepare for large-scale, high-tech conflict with Russia and other adversaries.

Other NATO countries like Poland are also rapidly expanding the size of their militaries.

Mais cites the need to adapt to “anti-access/area-denial bubbles,” integrate unmanned and robotic systems, and maintain deep reserves of personnel and equipment.

Germany’s current structures, he warns, are nowhere near sufficient. Meeting the targets would require not only more troops but also a reorganization of training, new conscription models and sustained political backing.

The current size of the Bundeswehr is showing signs of strain as it moves to deploy 4,000 troops to Lithuania. The new permanent brigade in Lithuania — a flagship NATO commitment — is still being pieced together amid shortages of personnel and infrastructure.

Reaching the numbers sketched out in the memo would require a significant political and financial commitment.

“The scale is enormous,” Mais wrote in the covering note, stressing that the army must secure the posts “as quickly as possible” to keep pace with the threat environment.

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