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Fordow, one of the Iranian nuclear enrichment sites targeted by U.S. bombers

Commentary – June 22, 2025

On Friday June 13 Israel launched a wave of strikes on Iran’s military command, its nuclear scientists, its air defences and many of its nuclear sites.

The objective was to take out the Iranian high command and the Iranian Republic’s ability to mount a coordinated defence.

Although many of the Israeli strikes did indeed hit home, taking out much of Iran’s high command and key nuclear scientists, as well as disabling some of the country’s air defences, the Israeli campaign wasn’t entirely successful.

The fact that Israel subsequently warned its citizens to prepare for a long war means that the IDF failed to achieve the initial objectives in its strike.

Although some Israelis may have thought that they had the initiative, that illusion was quickly dispelled by successive waves of retaliatory Iranian missile strikes.

For after being caught off-guard on June 13, Iran quickly recovered, putting Israel on the defensive with successive waves of missiles and drones. To make matters worse for Israel, Iran not only quickly re-established its military command structure but the Israeli strike also sparked a resurgent sense of Iranian national unity.

Perhaps even more disturbing for the Israeli military are claims that Iran shot down 4 Israel F-35s. This cannot be confirmed but if true it means that Israel has lost its prized air superiority.

Iran is not like Egypt in the 1967 war. Then the Israeli Defence Force quickly seized the initiative and took control of the battlefields and the skies, by destroying the much of the Egyptian Air Force while it was still on the ground..

Things are very different for Israel now.

Iran was in the process of wresting back the initiative that Israel had momentarily seized on June 13. That is why little more than a week later Israeli military chief of staff, Lt Gen Eyal Zamir, warned of “difficult days” ahead and a “prolonged war”.

The days of quick Israeli victories are over, as witness the meat grinder that Gaza has become after 18 months of fighting.

So if the Israelis can’t beat a lightly armed militia in a tiny enclave that they totally surround, how are they going to handle a nation of 90 million, that is sophisticated, committed and backed by Russia and China?

The answer is they can’t, at least not by themselves.

That’s why Trump’s intervention late on Saturday, early Sunday is so critical. Without U.S. support and aid Israel would be on the way to defeat.

Indeed, it is no exaggeration to say that Israel’s continued existence is entirely dependent on President Trump.

It is also dangerous to write Iran off when we don’t have the full details of the U.S. strikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities, announced by Trump. Or the extent of the damage wrought by the U.S. bombings.

Furthermore, the U.S. bombings haven’t put an end to the regime in Tehran. In the hours following Iran launched further retaliatory missile strikes on Israel.

Whether you view Trump’s actions as propping up a regime conducting genocide, or neutralising a nuclear threat, it’s clear that this conflict is far from over. In fact, it may only be beginning and after Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq the U.S. doesn’t have the stomach for a prolonged war.

Unfortunately, that is just what President Trump may have committed the U.S. to.