Barak Ravid – Axios.com Jan 2, 2025

White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan presented President Biden with options for a potential U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities if the Iranians move towards a nuclear weapon before Jan. 20, in a meeting several weeks ago that remained secret until now, three sources with knowledge of the issue tell Axios.

Why it matters: A U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear program during the lame duck period would be an enormous gamble from a president who promised he would not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, but who would also risk handing a fresh conflict over to his successor. Biden did not green light a strike during the meeting and has not done so since, the sources said.

• Biden and his national security team discussed various options and scenarios during the meeting, which took place roughly one month ago, but the president did not make any final decision, according to the sources.
• A U.S. official with knowledge of the issue said the White House meeting was not prompted by new intelligence or intended to end in a yes or no decision from Biden. Instead, it was part of a discussion on “prudent scenario planning” of how the U.S. should respond if Iran were to take steps like enriching Uranium to 90% purity before Jan. 20, the official said.
• Another source said there are currently no active discussions inside the White House about possible military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Behind the scenes: Some of Biden’s top aides have argued internally that two trends —the acceleration of Iran’s nuclear program, and the weakening of Iran and its proxies in their war with Israel — together give Biden an imperative and an opportunity to strike.

• The sources said some of Biden’s aides, including Sullivan, think that the degrading of Iran’s air defenses and missile capabilities, along with the significant weakening of Iran’s regional proxies, would improve the odds of a successful strike and decrease the risk of Iranian retaliation and regional escalation.
• The U.S. official said Sullivan did not make any recommendation to Biden on the issue, but only discussed scenario planning. The White House declined to comment.

The intrigue: One source said Biden honed in on the question of urgency, and whether Iran had taken steps that justify a dramatic military strike a few weeks before a new president takes office.

The other side: Iran has long denied it is seeking a nuclear weapon and stressed that its nuclear program is only for civilian purposes.

• But in recent months, several former and current Iranian officials spoke publicly about the possibility of changing Iran’s nuclear doctrine.
• “You can look at the public statements of Iranian officials, which have changed in the last few months as they have been dealt these strategic blows, to raise the question: Do we have to change our doctrine at some point? The fact that that’s coming out publicly is something that has to be looked at extremely carefully,” Sullivan said at a conference in New York two weeks ago.
• At the same event, Sullivan suggested the blows Iran and its proxies had received over the past year could push Tehran to seek a nuclear weapon. “It generates choices for that adversary that can be quite dangerous, and that’s something we have to remain extremely vigilant about as we go forward,” he said.

State of play: Iran’s nuclear program has advanced dramatically during Biden’s time in office, bringing Iran to the status of a de-facto “nuclear threshold state.”

• Iran increased its Uranium enrichment to 60%, close enough to the 90% level needed to produce a nuclear weapon that Iran’s advanced centrifuges could accomplish it in a matter of days.
• According to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran has enough 60%-enriched uranium to make four nuclear bombs.

Reality check: Even if Iran decided to build a bomb, it would need to develop a nuclear explosive device or warhead. Israeli intelligence believes that would take at least a year.

• An Israeli strike on Iran’s Parchin military complex in late October also destroyed sophisticated equipment — dating back to before Iran ended its military nuclear program in 2003 — that would be needed to design and test a nuclear explosive device.
• Israeli officials believe that could create a crucial bottleneck if Iran does decide to build a bomb.

But U.S. and Israeli officials say that over the last year, Iranian scientists have conducted suspicious research related to nuclear weaponization — including computer modeling and metallurgy — that appears to be aimed at decreasing the time needed to develop a nuclear device in the event Iran’s leaders elect to do so.

• The Biden administration sent a private warning to Iran last spring expressing serious concerns about Iranian nuclear research and development activities, U.S. and Israeli officials told Axios.
• The U.S. and Israel have both detected suspicious nuclear activities by Iranian scientists in the past few months that some officials fear could be part of a covert Iranian effort to use the period around the U.S. presidential transition to make progress toward nuclear weaponization.

What’s next: Sullivan said last month that the Biden administration had briefed President-elect Trump’s team on the intelligence picture regarding Iran’s nuclear program.

• “They may choose a different course, a different strategy, but I want to make sure we are starting from a common base of what we are facing with respect to the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear program,” he said.

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