Mike Whitney – The Unz Review Nov 3, 2024
We make threats, but what exactly are we going to do? We’re the guys who couldn’t stop the Houthis from shutting down the Red Sea. Okay? So, we need to stop thinking of ourselves as this undefeated heavyweight champion that no one can lay a glove on. We may have been that in our prime, but we’re past our prime. We’re overweight, we’re out of shape, we have really expensive systems that are really undermanned, and then, all of a sudden, we have to extend our logistics and communication lines to attack Iran? Good luck with that. Larry Johnson: Iran’s new Strategy to teach Israel a Harsh lesson, You Tube
Israel’s failed aerial assault on Iran on October 26 augurs a major shift in the regional balance of power. Iran’s technologically advanced air defense system coupled with its state-of-the-art, long-range hypersonic ballistic missile stockpile make it the most powerful state in the Middle East portending a peaceful era of cooperation and economic integration ahead. In contrast, Israel will be forced to accept its modest role in the emerging order by abandoning its expansionist ambitions and working collaboratively with its neighbors. (If that’s possible.) The prospects for regional peace have been greatly enhanced by the steady erosion of US global power due in large part to the looming financial crisis that will unavoidably curtail Washington’s relentless foreign interventions. With US and Israeli meddling in check, the China-led multipolar world order will quickly replace the threadbare “rules-based” system. Even so, the proximate cause of these remarkable events can be traced back to Israel’s misguided attack on Iran which proved beyond a doubt that Tehran’s multi-layered air defense system along with its prodigious cache of cutting-edge ballistic missiles made it the preeminent power in the region. Here’s a brief summary from former British intel officer Alastair Crooke of how Israel’s attack unfolded:
Judge Andrew Napolitano—Did Israel cause any meaningful damage to Iran in its attack on October 26?
Alastair Crooke—No, but something significant did happen, because the attack was supposed to lead off with the destruction of the air defense systems…. what they call SEAD (Suppression of Enemy Air Defenses) The aircraft was supposed to destroy the air defenses in Iraq, Syria and Iran so the second and third waves would come in with conventional weapons to destroy the targets that had been selected for them. But the second and third wave could only enter Iranian airspace if it was safe for them to do that. (if the air defenses had been properly suppressed) Now what happened (although we don’t know precisely) is that those second and third waves never happened. We got into the first wave and the Israelis said “That’s it, we’re finished. It’s over. We won and it’s a great success.”
What seems to have happened is that the Israeli aircraft with their long-range missiles to destroy the air defense systems never got closer than 70 kms to Iran, too far for their missiles to lock on to the air defenses because they needed the signals to lock onto. …The key thing they said—and this is from Israeli sources—“We’ve discovered an unknown air defense system over Tehran province.” So what seems to have happened is that they (the Israeli aircraft) were being locked onto by another air defense system so they were frightened to go ahead and they scrapped the attack. They then simply released their long-range missiles (Most of these missiles are guided by GPS and the Russians are highly adept at jamming GPS.) But …this unexplained air defense system, was possibly a Russian air defense system that can attack stealth fighters like the F-35s. … If you have a missile that has a radar capacity that is able to identify a stealth fighter, then the whole idea of the attack on Iran seems to have collapsed….
All the conventional bombers carrying conventional weapons wouldn’t go into the area because it was too dangerous, it was not a secure area. The airspace was dominated by air defense that threatened the stealth fighters themselves.
This has huge geostrategic implications if this is what in fact happened….
You see, there was a three-phased plan; and when the plan was scuppered, they just announced the plan as if it had happened. “We’ve succeeded. We flew over Tehran; we suppressed their air defenses, we bombed targets and we destroyed their missile capacity.”
It’s just hype. It’s not true. Judging Freedom, Alastair Crooke, You Tube
So, now Israel has decided to cover up what actually transpired because the strategic implications are just too catastrophic to face. As Crooke points out, if America’s stealth fighters cannot enter enemy space without fear of being detected, then the “whole western defense concept” lies in ruins. So, what Israel’s failed operation did was to expose the vulnerability of critical military assets that have been rendered obsolete by technologically advanced air defense systems that can not only intercept enemy missiles mid-flight but can also destroy the warplanes that launch them.
Let’s summarize:
- Iran has developed an advanced multi-layered air defense system that can counter any potential Israeli attack on the homeland.
- Iran has produced a sizable stockpile of state-of-the-art, long-range hypersonic ballistic missiles that can elude Israeli air defense systems and strike military or civilian targets anywhere in Israel.
The combination of these offensive/defensive capabilities ensures that Iran will continue to emerge as the regional leader.
Game. Set. Match.
For a more detailed account of the Israeli attack see interview with Colonel Jacques Baud or Col Larry Wilkerson & Scott Ritter or this piece in the Unz Review by former CIA officer and intelligence analyst Larry Johnson who says the following:
The Zionists used more than 100 aircraft to send an estimated 200 air-launched ballistic missiles into Iran. Israeli aircraft did not dare to fly inside Iran. And what happened? Iran, with Russian help, shot down the majority of the Israeli missiles. Iran showed no signs of panic or anger in the aftermath of the attack — not what one would expect if Israel’s assault had been a smashing success. Israel and Ukraine Gaslighting to Cover Up Failures, Larry Johnson, Unz Review
Repeat: Israeli aircraft never crossed into Iran’s sovereign airspace. They fired their missiles outside Iran’s borders and split.
The point is that many of the more reliable foreign policy analysts corroborate Crooke’s basic analysis. Yes, a few radar units were apparently destroyed in Iran’s western province of Ilam and in southwestern Khuzestan. And, yes, 4 Iranians were killed in the offensive. But Israel’s greatly anticipated and meticulously engineered aerial operation was largely a bust that achieved nothing and simply reinforced speculation that Iran has achieved a considerable technological edge on the Jewish state.
As far as deterrents, that is a matter that can only be settled by convincing Israel that serial retaliation is going to cost far-more in terms of blood and treasure than what is gained. So far, Israel has not been persuaded on this matter mainly because it foolishly believes that Washington ‘has its back’. But even the US is not thickheaded enough to engage in a conflict that will inevitably lead to the destruction of its military bases and oil fields across the region sending the US economy into an empire-ending nosedive. So, while the sudden deployment of B-52 bombers and warships to West Asia suggests that Uncle Sam is preparing to join the fray in a Battle Royale against Tehran; it’s all a bluff. The Pentagon has gamed out this very scenario many times before and the outcome has always been the same: The United States is defeated.
In the comments section of Larry Johnson’s recent article at the Unz Review, editor Ron Unz had this to say:
(If Crooke’s analysis of Israel’s attack is) what really happened, I think the implications are potentially gigantic.
As I’d said some time ago, we might be soon seeing the first real-life test between America’s top-line F-35s and the Russian defensive systems. If the latter were clearly successful and the Americans can’t quickly get around this problem, why would other countries buy F-35s? They’re extremely expensive and supposedly have all sorts of maintenance problems, and if they can’t defeat much less costly Russian defensive systems, what good are they?
Also, how likely would it now be that America could actually destroy Iran in a direct war? Obviously, America has far more top-line aircraft than Israel and could deploy them from closer positions, not requiring as much refueling, but why would our F-35s fare any better than Israel’s? Meanwhile, our carriers and bases would probably be very vulnerable to Iranian retaliatory missile strikes.
I’m still not absolutely sure that the Israeli attack was totally unsuccessful, but if that’s the case, the global strategic landscape may have dramatically shifted. Ron Unz, comment 305
All good points, and they fit with our overall theory that US foreign policy elites know that the US cannot prevail in a conventional war with Iran and that, thus, Washington will not follow Israel “like a dumb mule” into battle.
If Israel decides to go to war with Iran, they’ll have to ‘go it alone’, which might just ‘bring them to their senses.
60000 U.S. troop, around Iran, 6600 miles away from U.S. pic.twitter.com/DLhYAN2Zxb
— maryam (@Msrh13fh) September 23, 2020
As many readers are undoubtedly aware, Iran is fully committed to responding to Israel’s latest aggression as is their right under Article 51 of the United Nations Charter which establishes the right of self-defense for member states. Iran will exercise that right and launch a retaliatory strike sometime in the near future. According to The Times of Israel:
Iran’s supreme leader on Saturday threatened Israel and the US with “a crushing response” over attacks on Iran and its allies…. Iranian officials are increasingly threatening to launch yet another strike against Israel after its October 26 attack on the Islamic Republic that targeted military bases and facilities and that Iran said killed at least five people.
Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Iranian military facilities came weeks after the October 1 attack, in which Iran launched 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, sending most of the population rushing to bomb shelters and safe rooms, causing relatively minor damage to military bases and some residential areas…
“The enemies, whether the Zionist regime or the United States of America, will definitely receive a crushing response to what they are doing to Iran and the Iranian nation and to the resistance front,” Khamenei said in video released by Iranian state media….
The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier likely is in the Arabian Sea, while Pentagon press secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said Friday that more destroyers, fighter squadrons, tankers and B-52 long-range bombers would be coming to the region to deter Iran and its terror allies. The Times of Israel
Iran will not back down or shirk its responsibility. There will be a response, and Israel will be held to account. What happens after the attack is anyone’s guess, but the threat of escalation will not impact Iran’s decision. According to an article at Axios:
The Biden administration warned Iran in recent days against launching another attack on Israel and stressed it won’t be able to restrain the Israelis, according to a U.S. official and a former Israeli official briefed on the issue….
“We told the Iranians: We won’t be able to hold Israel back, and we won’t be able to make sure that the next attack will be calibrated and targeted as the previous one,” a U.S. official said…..
Pentagon press secretary Gen. Pat Ryder said Friday that the U.S. was moving additional ballistic missile defense destroyers, fighter squadron and tanker aircraft, and several U.S. Air Force B-52 long-range strike bombers to the Middle East.
“Secretary Austin continues to make clear that should Iran, its partners, or its proxies use this moment to target American personnel or interests in the region, the United States will take every measure necessary to defend our people,” Ryder said. U.S. warns Iran: We won’t be able to restrain Israel if you attack, Axios
These attempts to intimidate Iran are not going to work. From the very beginning, Iran has acted with great patience and restraint, but it cannot allow another country to attack it with impunity. Even so, we should expect that Iran’s attack will be measured and proportional as they have been in the past. At the same time, Tehran needs to send a strong message to Tel Aviv that future provocations will be met with overwhelming force. (IMHO, Iranian leaders will discuss the appropriate response with strategic ally, Russia.)
As for Israel’s October 26 attack on Iran: analyst Alon Mizrahi summed it up like this on X:
What actually transpired in the last Israeli strike?
My ear is quite attuned to the different frequencies of Zionist propaganda, and from the very beginning the celebration seemed a little cold and fake, accompanied by a sense of apprehension and trying to give ‘everything is as it ever was‘.
And now, with the advantage of having been exposed to the reported damages and some other analysis by military experts, we can quite safely conclude that the Israeli strike failed in a major way.
A strike planned for weeks and decades and marketed as a resounding payback proved to have damaged some 2 or 3 structures in a way that’s hardly visible from satellite imagery.
That’s anticlimax if ever I saw one. @alon_mizrahi
dangers to children
Moshe Solomons and Dr David Cohen exposed the plan on radio some weeks ago. The LBGT crowd are working toward making even young children
onto homosexuals
The jews did this in ancent rome
and tried it on in germany but Hitler put them all into the world camps
they did it here in the UK with the carnaby st unisex mods, those nancy boys who looked like little tarts, and you could not tell them from the girls
now its back again
and so many parents are taking their kids out of school
starmer may make school indoctrination compulsory
dangers to children you need to see this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uhtz01QB_Bs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uhtz01QB_Bs
ANOTHER LONDON STABBING
Three men have been taken to hospital after a stabbing incident in south-east London, police have said.
Emergency services were called to Purneys Road, Eltham, shortly before 1pm on Sunday following reports of three men stabbed.
The quarrel is believed to have begun after a clash between black gangs at the Notting Hill carnival
No arrests have been made and a crime scene is in place, the Metropolitan Police said. Air ambulance and paramedic crews also attended – with the first medical responders arriving in six minutes, the London Ambulance Service (LAS) said.
It added: “We sent a number of resources to the scene, including ambulance crews, paramedics in fast response cars, an incident response officer and London’s Air Ambulance.
“The first of our crews arrived in six minutes.
“Our crews treated three male patients at the scene, before taking them to London major trauma centres by road, as a priority.”
The Met said it is waiting on an update on their conditions.
Anyone with information is asked to call 101 and quote CAD reference 3279/03Nov or contact Crimestoppers on 0800 555 111 to remain anonymous.
Related info: Man held on suspicion of attempted murder after woman and two children stabbed (Daily Mail)
A petition has already begun to deport all migrants who commit violent crimes
BBC LICENSING TO BE SCRAPPED
Major update on BBC TV licence fee as new chairman admits it Should be scrapped
Story by Katie Elliott
The new BBC chairman Dr Samir Shah is set to address the future of the broadcaster’s funding, hinting at a potential overhaul by stating that “reforming the licence fee, replacing it, or coming up with a whole new mechanism” are all possibilities under consideration.
He said the public are angry that the BBC hid up the sex crimes of many of its stars, some have still not been named, and the blatent pro israel propaganda
In his inaugural speech since assuming the role earlier this year, Dr Shah will engage with top media personalities and policymakers at Leeds Conservatoire on Tuesday to deliberate on the governance and financing of the BBC. Previously, the former Government initiated a review of the BBC’s TV licence fee model to explore alternative funding methods after December 2027 when the current charter concludes. During his appearance at Leeds Conservatoire, Dr Shah is expected to reiterate that options for “reforming the licence fee, replacing it, or coming up with a whole new mechanism” remain open for discussion.
The licence fee has been under intense scrutiny, as it is unconstitutional and there fore illegal, especially during the tenure of the Conservative government, which imposed a two-year freeze at £159, followed by a modest increase to £169.50 in April, contrary to the BBC’s expectations.
However, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer affirmed his support for the licence fee in July, Look since 1936 the BBC has beena mouthpiece for rothschild for f*ck sake get him to pay it
Russia should be helping White America, not a Moslem country, but the Illuminati always make sure alliances cut at 90 degrees to what would be natural
The bullies were resisted. Now the world waits to see them slapped down.
It’s time Damascus got a little of what Iran has got when the vermin in their flying machines come pestering Syria and Lebanon and Yemen.
What these roman catholic cia-kgb alternative news characters like Whitney don’t tell you is that its all staged between Israel & Iran/Lebanon etc. to dialectically progress their upcoming ‘end of days’, moshiach, third temple & ‘Waste Whitey III’ scenario .
We are expected to believe there are 14,000 US troops in Afghanistan, after being kicked out of there about 3 years ago?
hahahahahahahaahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaahahhahahahahahahahaha
yes of course
i really dont know what to believe any more
the news is up and down up and down
like carl jones trousers
Stalin the biggest mass murderer of w w 2
marched into the ukraine and stole the harvest
each year, as they were dying Hitlers forces brought then food
My extended family say people were crying with relief and fighting over loaves of bread
Stalin told churchill to bomb the supply lines which now extended a long way
feeding these people must stop he said, as jews do
The result was that many ukranians joined hitlers forces against russia
and this is in part why they were set up in a war against russia by the jew
as revenge to them is all
@lewis jones
“Russia should be helping White (many are pink) America, not a Moslem country, but the Illuminati always make sure alliances cut at 90 degrees to what would be natural”
“Illuminati” can’t change the geography and all relations are defined by it.
There is no “alliance” between Iran and Russia. There is only expanding partnership.
If we simplify, countries can be:
1- Partner
2- Rival/Opponent
3- Enemy
4- Friend/Ally/Us
Countries can be partners in some issues and thus cooperate or they can be rivals in others fields and compete with one another. For example while Indians are diverse, India as a country hates Muslims and loves US and Jews… yet they are all in for the North-South corridor with Russia and Iran, but they are also all in with the proposed Arab-Med corridor.
Russia plays the card of 3 Iranian islands in Persian Gulf with UAE for example, no ally of Iran would do that! Russia also has a large Russian Jewish citizens inside Zion! In fact in some of the videos of Iranian missiles strikes on Zion, Jews speak/curse in Russian! Russia also has some balancing deals US between Zion and Ukraine, regarding the delivery of long range weapons.
China wants the de-dollarization BUT they need to go about it slowly so they can melt their USD reserves, Russia and Iran would rather go about it ASAP, of course within these countries there are also various different interest groups.
Iran can share hypersonic missile tech with Yemen (AnsrAllah) because they are allies but Iran can’t ship Arash-2 drones or Fateh-110 missiles to Russia just as Russia does not send Su-35s or S400 to Iran. There has been various claims time and again about imminent delivery of such weapons that were proven to be false but they can be used as bargaining chips with third-parties! There were some recent claims that we have yet to see if they are actually true.
Based on this video evidence, Iran has sought space-command from Russia and offered drone-command in return.
https://youtu.be/62rjrJ_FCP4
US and Zion are allies and the same; in truth Zionists attack on Iran was a US attack on Iran, just as Iran’s attack on Zion was an attack on US and soon these formalities will be over and everything will be clear!
Quote from Article: “The combination of these offensive/defensive capabilities ensures that Iran will continue to emerge as the regional leader.”
Regarding, Iran as a “regional power”. : ) It is sounding weird!
Let me make it very clear, Iran is either nothing or a pole in the multipolar world with global reach.
And don’t forget powers are trying to grab what they can as US global power fades away, so in a way Russia and Iran also have a competition particularly in sale of weapons.
There was a time they were worried Iran could get some basic cheap rocket, today they are worried Iran could sell weapons to different places.
So try to have a balanced view on this
مقداد وفائی: Excellent reply to Mr. Jones’ comments. I suppose we could say also that Russia must find its friends where it can, and it is very fortunate that Iran is willing in this regard. Such alliances are beneficial to everyone, including the “west,” because they enforce stability and balance in world affairs. RE: Russia being friends with “white” countries, Russia has tried, ostensibly at least, to be friends with “western” countries, but, because of Jew influence, so many of such overtures have been rebuffed. The destruction of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines, probably by the U.S. with western European support, is a prime example of this.