Moon of Alabama – June 20, 2024

On October 8, a day after Hamas attacked Israel, the Lebanese Hizbullah joined the fray. It sent missiles towards military installations in north Israel. 80,000 Israeli settler living in the north fled from their homes. They are still sitting in hotels around Israel and are waiting for the return of quietness to that front.

Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah had announced that the current northern tit-for-tat campaign between Hizbullah and Israeli forces would continue until a permanent ceasefire is agreed upon in Gaza.

But the radicals in charge of Israeli policies do not want a ceasefire in Gaza. They want to eradicate Hamas and as much of the Gazan population as possible. A ceasefire would prevent them from doing so.

On the other hand there is pressure from northern settlers who want to return to their homes. But without a ceasefire in Gaza the low level conflict in Israel’s north and southern Lebanon is bound to continue.

Instead of working towards a ceasefire in Gaza the Israeli military and government are planning to invade southern Lebanon and to occupy it up to the Litani river.

The plan is delusional. Hizbullah is grounded in the Shia communities which inhabit south Lebanon. Is Israel expecting that population to move out? That is not going to happen.

Hizbullah, with its number of forces exceeding 100,000 men, is well prepared for a fight. South Lebanon is criss-crossed with well prepared fighting positions and tunnels. More than 150,000 missiles, many of them long range, are ready to be launched against military and economic targets in Israel. The 2006 invasion of south Lebanon ended in an utter defeat for the Israeli army. There is no reason to believe that a renewed fight would have a different outcome.

In case of a new conflict Hizbullah has plans to cross the border and to occupy parts of norther Israel. It is also ready to expand a war should this be necessary:

Cont. reading: Hizbullah Ready To Defeat Israel