Iain Davis – Off-Guardian Jan 14, 2024
According to the UK Met Office, 2023 was the second hottest year in the UK since 1884.
Quite obviously, this is complete nonsense. Unless they are troglodytes that never venture out in daylight, why would anyone in the UK believe such absurd drivel?
The Met Office states:
2023 is provisionally the second warmest year for the UK according to mean temperature. [. . .] 2023’s provisional mean temperature of 9.97°C puts it just behind 2022’s figure of 10.03°C and ahead of 2014’s 9.88°C.
Right, it’s “provisional” drivel.
The UK summer of 2023—where I live—was a thoroughly miserable affair. We had a few weeks of decent sunshine in the spring and a couple of hot weeks of Indian summer. That was it!
The rest of it was cold, wet and comprehensively devoid of anything we might traditionally call “summer.” The winter preceding and following it wasn’t particularly cold, but nor was it unusually warm.
I’m knocking on a bit and can remember about 50 years of my life. I know, for a fact, that I have lived through many warmer years. Sure, this is anecdotal, but I haven’t completely taken leave of my senses and I still have a functioning memory. No way am I unquestioningly buying the Met Office’s silly claim.
Neither do I believe any of the legacy media reports trying to convince me that the Met Office’s preposterous assertion is evidence of an alleged climate crisis. It simply isn’t true, so it is not “evidence” of anything at all. Although it does suggest deception.
The Met Office—obviously unreliably—tells us “UK mean temperatures have been shifting over the decades as a result of human-induced climate change. [. . .] 2023’s provisional mean temperature of 9.97°C puts it just behind 2022’s figure of 10.03°C.”
For a start, “human induced climate change,” or Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW), is a questionable and unproven scientific theory, not scientific fact. This too is just another claim from the Met Office which it wrongly asserts as fact.
The Met Office also tells us that “sunshine was near-average for much of the UK.” If we have got this right, the Met Office is claiming that, with average hours of UK sunshine in 2023—which also seems pretty dubious to me—somehow, since 1884, the only year that has been “hotter” was 2022. Which doesn’t ring true either.
What’s going on?
What does the Met Office mean—pardon the pun—by “mean temperature”? It reports that its 2023 alleged “provisional mean temperature of 9.97°C” had been obtained via the HadUK-Grid data set. The Met Office also cites its 2023 rapid attribution study. It is from this that we can—eventually—glean how the “UK mean temperature” is calculated by the Met Office.
In its rapid attribution study, the Met Office states:
Observed values of the UK annual mean temperature are obtained from the HadUK-Grid dataset v1.2.0.0. The time series spans 1884 – 2023, with the 2023 values being provisional as of 2nd January 2024.
“Observed,” that’s what we want to hear. So what observations are reported in the HadUK-Grid dataset? The Met Office claims:
HadUK-Grid is a collection of gridded climate variables derived from the network of UK land surface observations.
If we look at the HadUK-Grid methodology, the Met Office adds:
The gridded data sets are based on the archive of UK weather observations held at the Met Office.
So far so good. The HadUK-Grid reportedly records real data, such as sunshine hours, rainfall and even temperature. We live in hope. Unfortunately, there is some caveats. The Met Office continues:
The methods used to generate the daily grids are described in more detail in [this] report.
- So beyond just recording real-world data, what are the “methods” outlined in said report?
[. . .] the Met Office climate data archive [. . .] contains a simplified version of the raw observations generated according to well-defined rules. [. . .] Mean temperature [. . .] is the average of the maximum and minimum temperatures.
At last we have a definition of the “mean temperature” the Met Office claims to be the second highest since 1884. Apparently, it is “generated according to well-defined rules.”
In Met Office speak “mean temperature” isn’t the actual arithmetic mean of daily temperatures but rather the “average” of minimum and maximum temperatures recorded between 09:00 and 21:00 on any given day. Begging the question how are the minimum and maximum UK temperatures “observed”?
Although the data ha[s] undergone some quality checking, the extent and effectiveness of this has changed through time since the 1960’s. [. . .] NCIC climate data analysis software was again used to create the gridded data. [. . .] The station data were normalised with respect to the monthly 1km x 1km gridded 1961-1990 climate normals described by Perry and Hollis (2005a).
So the minimum and maximum allegedly “observed” 2023 “mean UK temperature” wasn’t actually observed at all. It was calculated from normalised data using computers running software based upon the “climate normals” defined in Perry and Hollis (2005).
The related paper considered how to calculate long term averages (LTAs) and suggested a methodology by which “mean” temperatures could be calculated:
For air temperature, 1490 stations reported at some point between 1961 and 2000 but only an average of 560 of these were open at any one time. This gives an array which is 38% complete. [. . .] [T]he solution is to fill in the gaps using an appropriate estimation technique. [. . .] Once the gaps in the array have been filled, long term averages for the periods 1961-1990, 1971-2000 and 1991-2000 can be calculated for each station from the complete array. [. . .] The regression model parameters provide an estimation of [. . .] the UK climate, explaining between 29% and 94% of the variance in the data depending on the climate variable.
Potentially, up to 62% of the data forming the Met Office’s “Mean UK temperature” is “generated” by “fill[ing] in the gaps.” This is based upon an “estimation technique” which supposedly explains between “29% and 94% of the variance in the data depending on the climate variable.” This doesn’t mean that the estimated fill-ins are inaccurate but they cannot be called “observations” either.
We seem to be moving further away from empirical science. Surely the Met Office isn’t claiming that it knows what the average UK “provisional” mean temperature was in 2023 based upon such limited observations? With regard to how it interprets the HadUK-Grid dataset the Met Office states:
The HadUK-Grid dataset is produced on a 1km x 1km grid resolution on the Ordnance Survey’s National Grid. To facilitate comparison of the observational dataset with the UKCP18 climate projections [. . .]. All the gridded datasets use the same grid projection. The re-gridding is conducted through averaging of all 1km grid points that fall within each of the coarser resolution grid cells.
Whoa there! We already know that the “observational dataset” is created by “fill[ing] in the gaps”—around a 60% gap apparently—with computer modelled estimates. Now we are told some sort of “re-gridding” is necessary to “facilitate comparison” with UKCP18 climate projections. Why is that necessary?
The UK Met Office adds:
Area averages are also produced based on averaging the 1km grid [data] across a set of geographical regions to provide spatial statistics for country, administrative regions and river basins. The details of these areas can be found in the UKCP18 guidance notes.
Now we’ve got “spacial statistics,” instead of empirical measurements, based upon “area averages” that facilitate, for some unknown reason, comparison with “UKCP18 climate projections.” OK, so how are the “area averages” constructed in accordance with the UKCP18 guidance notes:
Before using [UKCP18 guidance notes], it is important to understand the assumptions made, the caveats and limitations and the appropriate use of the results.
Assumptions made, caveats and limitations! What bloody assumptions, caveats and limitations? Just measure the temperature and calculate some sort of meaningful average for crying out loud!
Let’s look at the caveats and limitations:
Our understanding and ability to simulate the climate is advancing all the time but our climate models are not able to represent all of the features seen in the present day real climate and there are still limitations in our ability to project 21st century weather and climate.
Why are the Met Office “generating” temperature datasets to “facilitate comparison” with climate models if those models “are not able to represent all of the features seen in the present day real climate.” Surely the models should be based upon the empirically observed and measured features of the “real climate,” as opposed to creating “area averages”containing “spacial statistics” to fit in with the models?
Almost unbelievably, this is evidently what the UK Met Office is doing:
The relative probabilities indicate how strongly the evidence from models and observations, taken together in our methodology, support alternative future climate outcomes. [. . .] The probabilities are conditioned on methodological choices and expert judgement. The results may change if a different methodology is used.
In essence, the Met Office uses a tortuous and unnecessarily convoluted methodology to make up the bulk of its UK “temperature” data. While the Met Office claims that the provisional UK mean temperature was for 2023 was 9.97°C it also states that its results might change “if a different methodology” was used.
What’s more, the data it uses is normalised, based upon a wide gamut of climate assumptions, in order to fit in with its own climate models. Again, it admits its so-called observations, of things like mean temperature, are “taken together in [its] methodology” expressly in order to “simulate the climate.”
Most of these modelling shenanigans are utterly superfluous if your objective is to calculate the arithmetic mean annual UK temperature. Of course anomalies, such as heat islands, need to be normalised in the data but the rest of the Met Office’s “methodology,” which doesn’t even attempt to calculate an arithmetic mean temperature anyway, is about as far removed from empirical science as it is possible to venture.
Inevitably, it produces completely meaningless pap. The problem with such allegedly “scientific” rubbish is that, rather than being laughed off, it is then taken seriously by millions—thanks the unquestioning propaganda reports of the legacy media—and used to advance policy agendas, such as Net Zero.
Apart from the fact that it is blatantly obvious, to anyone who has lived in the UK from more that a couple of decades, that 2023 was not a warm year, there are other notable reasons not to automatically trust the Met Office’s makey-uppy “climate science.” Its entire claim is reliant upon the HadUK-Grid dataset which is a project funded by the UK government. As is the Met Office itself.
Apparently, the UK government is irreversibly committed to UN Sustainable Development and the associated UK Net Zero policies. The Met Office’s alleged scientific “observations” suffer from an enormous financial conflict of interest. Providing any evidence that contradicts the notion of “unprecedented global warming” couldn’t be further removed from the Met Office’s and the UK government’s own declared interests.
There is absolutely no reason to believe any of it. As “science” goes, it’s complete junk. I’ve read comics with more credibility that the Met Office’s claim that 2023 was the second warmest year in the UK since 1884.
Pull the the other one, it’s got bells on it.
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Public ‘Anger’ over Rochdale grooming failures
Story by Pat Hurst
Andy Burnham said the report into grooming in the Rochdale area was “hard to read” while former police detective Maggie Oliver said the failure to protect around 1500 young girls left her feeling, “real anger”.
The Mayor of Greater Manchester, who commissioned the report into grooming in the North of England, said it gave a “detailed and distressing” account of how so many young children were ignored. He added: “That said, it fulfils the purpose of why I set up this review in the first place.
“It is only by facing up fully and unflinchingly to what happened that we can be sure of bringing the whole system culture change needed when it comes to protecting children from abuse, and it was only white christian children”
He continued: “We are sorry that you were so badly failed by the system that should have protected you.
“I would also like to praise those who blew the whistle on their behalf, particularly (former Rochdale health worker) Sara Rowbotham and Maggie Oliver, and for the support they have provided to them ever since. That took huge courage and determination and we thank them for it.”“I want to reassure the public that those responsible are gone now”
Greater Manchester Police Chief Constable Stephen Watson said: “It remains a matter of profound regret that victims of child sexual exploitation in Rochdale in the early 2000s were failed by Greater Manchester Police – to them, I apologise.
“Whilst the report rightfully vindicates Maggie and Sara (Rowbotham) and reinforces the importance of the changes we have already made – many with Maggie’s support, it remains to be said that the current prevention of and response to child sexual exploitation in Rochdale and across Greater Manchester has been overhauled since the early 2000s to ensure that victims and survivors are cared for and receive the expected level of service.”
Maggie Oliver, who worked as a detective constable for Greater Manchester Police and has founded a foundation for the survivors of the scandal by muslim rapists , said: “After over 10 years fighting for the truth of this botched case to be exposed, today is a day filled with so many mixed emotions for me.
“My overriding emotion though is one of anger. I am angry that not one senior officer or official has ever been held individually responsible for these failures, lies and cover ups.
“Repeatedly failing to prioritise them, to protect children and prosecute known abusers, whilst all the time publicly pretending they were doing a brilliant job
“I want them to be held accountable for this criminal neglect.
“To get these apologies, and for this review to expose the truth, has taken years of battling an institution which exists to protect itself at all costs.
“It is only by shining a bright light into the dark, hidden corners of all of these scandals and cover ups that we can find the real truth and so demand the changes so desperately needed to our so-called criminal justice system, which as the public know all too well is currently unfit for purpose.”
For those 1500 kiddies serially raped by these men and the few who went into kebabs, mr heart goes out to them
JEREMY CLARKSON EXPOSES BBC CORRUPTION
He fiercely slammed BBC coverage of ‘the screwed’ farmer protests
Jeremy Clarkson has taken aim at the Rothschild BBC over the corporation and other news outlets’ portrayal of the state of farming across Europe.
In his latest column, Clarkson discussed the cost of foods on supermarket shelves and just how little ends up in farmers’ pockets amid ever-rising prices when it comes to production.In the past few weeks, farmers in Europe have taken to their tractors and put on widespread strikes due to plans to end subsidies that would aid their income.
In Germany, for instance, angry farmers took to the roads in their farming vehicles in protest at the government’s decision to end subsidies for diesel fuel used in agriculture and cut an exemption from car tax for farm vehicles.
After branding the money as Diddly Squat and farmers across the continent receive as “bugger all”, Clarkson blasted the fact that subsidies and other aid are being cut across the board.
The former Top Gear host said: “The green movement has come along and announced that it’s bad for the upper atmosphere to grow food and we must all stop.Jeremy Clarkson has taken aim at the corrupt BBC over the corporation and other news outlets’ portrayal of the state of farming across Euro[e
“And because modern politicians have all become enslaved by idiotic left-leaning pressure groups, they’ve nodded, said okay and decided to cut farming subsidies to the bone. Which means Europe’s farmers are screwed.
“They can’t make anything approximating to a living wage without government help and they can’t put up prices because the jewish owned supermarket system doesn’t allow it
The late Chris cooper was an army communications expert turned whistle blower he taped the phones of Lynn De Forest Rothschild who said the Rothschild’s were quote ” moving bigtime into food production and control ”
e g they are going to starve us
Ideally you would have many thousands of weather stations and record the temp. every few seconds, average all those and then average the many stations. For the globe you have more difficulties, with sea temperatures and atmospheric ones to be taken at different levels, and a lack of stations, so the figures given should be ignored. Even what I said would not be adequate
This is overly long. From what I’ve read, the gist of the article is true.
You know those pixelated glabal maps in red and blue, and shades in between. The ones shown to the sheeple are highly selective with much data omitted.
During the mid 80s to early 90s, my main living room window, a very nice 1930s sash frame. It was fully open, 24/7 from May till first week of September. That’s every year.
Remember the first 6 weeks of lock down? We had 6 glorious weeks of clear skies. No chemtrails!
There are two official lines of indoctrination. One, it’s all ‘your’ fecking fault, for breathing, pooping, farting, and eating meat. The second line of indictrination, there’s nothing wrong with the climate, I mean, literally nothing wrong.
Both are extremes, and are easy for sheeple to asimulate. Nothing too complicated, now.
As a space age child who was up at 4.20am GMT (around that time) for Apollo 11, my Nana was busying around (latter that morning) telling me, & others, ‘it’s all faked, they’re doing this in a studio’, not a word of a lie, but I was still captivated as functioning 8yr old should be, I now know we’ve been scammed and lied to sooo many times that anthropogenic bollox is a massive red flag.
Icon of the Seas just slipped into Miami. Currently ‘the biggest cruise liner in the world’ , said with Clarkson vocals. Where was retard Greta Thunberg? This tub is one ugly, motherfecker. I caught a glimpse of a Vergin liner nearby, and it looked beautiful in comparison, but I’m no supporter of cruisliners.
The US military, the biggest burner of carbon on the planet. Biden can’t wait to see tanks, and other military vehicles powered by batteries. This statement was so daft. A 70/80 ton tank with a 25 ton battery tucked in somewhere, and range, 5 miles, if the crew are peddling. How to beat the US military. Don’t hit the tanks, just hit the massive diesel trucks towing mega massive diesel generators, and diesel tankers. That was easy.
Seriously, there are major problems with the weather, and this is the collapsing magnetic field. This allows for more extreme weather patterns, and it allows more solar and cosmic particles to enter every layer of the atmosphere, and even deeper into the crust.
I mentioned the other day about the solar impact on developing mitochondria, and the global rise in young cancers, that’s under 50s. These cancers started to increase 50 or so years ago, and while the M-field started collapsing in 1857 after the Carrington event, the M-field started to seriously collapse about 50 years ago.
There are countless scientific peer reviewed papers which prove a link between heart attacks, strokes, mental illnesses, and bursts of solar activity. They even occur before major earthquakes.
As Ben Davidson says, they can calculate the pole flip, and the micronova, but there’s no way to predictic Coronal Hole Streams, or CMEs (Coronal Mass Ejections).
They can see these features as they swing into Earth’s view, where they start to pose a risk, and they can grade the threat, but it changes fast, and if one or more events gets fired at Earth, then there is a short warning period. If it’s really bad news, the interweb will be turned off, and that will be that. The lights won’t go on again, maybe never, and we will be in this bronze age life until the micronova.
When the power goes off, sheeple will start dying off in extraordinary numbers. This is why they don’t need a massive cull. Forget their propaganda, they know what’s coming. The idea is to keep the show on the road.
The biggest clue that they know what’s coming, is the fact that no one give a crap about the debt, or even building a sound economy. The Russians care, because they have blessed resources and they need to fight for their survival. The rest is a Nazi Shit Show, or is that No Shit Sherlock? I can never remember…
More lies from the liars – what`s new ???
Any regime which has to govern by deception, fear and oppression is inherently evil and ought to be completely eradicated by the people.
Good article about the deception / falsehood of Climate Change ( Global Warming ) !
It is also good in terms of showing the deceptive methodologies and time frames they
use to show Climate Change like that faulty Hockey stick model from years ago. However,
all you need to do to prove the data means nothing is to look at the Statistical Significance
and Standard Deviation of the data. The readings of: 9.88 Degrees C for 2014 , 10.03
Degrees C for 2022 and 9.97 Degrees C for 2023, basically really show that the differences
between the years are Statistically Insignificant. The ranges of those temperatures fall
within the 5% margin of error, 19 times out of 20.
Thus Climate Change is a hoax! Climate Change is more about weather modification through
things like HAARP / DARPA / DEW and Chemtrails!
Excellent analysis once again by Iain Davis. His key point of “empirical vs modelling” is first class because it is a concise test question for all these supposed “experts” and “smart people”.
This is not only useful here but in the Covid hoax ( which seems to be coming back ie calls for masking are being heard) and any number of other aspects of the general bullshit put out by the would be world controllers.
Rather than a question individual people can begin to take control of the narrative and say “Show me don’t tell me,show me.” This of course can also be used to pre-empt the attempt to say “antisemitism”.
@Carl Jones
I’m the same age as you.
I wasn’t woken up for Apollo 11. There was a real sense of specialness about all of that wasn’t there? A bit like an unfathomably beautiful young woman showing interest in an older fat bald guy on a dating site…
I’m a “millenialist spotter” of late. Remember when we were supposed to have flying cars by now? How about the sci fi series “Space 1999” or “UFO” where humanity had moonbases some twenty years ago or more….And of course, the continued promises of going back to the moon, or to Mars, in five years etc.
When one adds up all the deceptions put before the people, we might say the world is entirely different from that which is advertised. I want my money back. And what is more, I believe individual action should only be bound by moral injunction and not anything emanating from an establishment that has broken the social contract.
>>> For the globe you have more difficulties, etc..<<<
Yet another globalist 😆
Indoctrinated till the grave..
Do some research i'd say…
4 starters:
Flat Earth Man – "Nasa is faking everything song" – Conspiracy Music Guru
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SOA2L2x51yM
Presumably the same sort of BS is being spun on the continent?.
In which case the various EU countries will have to coordinate the BS….after all Germany should be in line with France along their border.
Glaciers HAVE shrunk in a number of countries indicating increased temperatures….BUT it does not establish a trend….What would be great is if there is a decline in temperatures over a few years…which would involve some elaborate bullshit to cover it….
The jury is still out on the subject…..
To the average person it means nothing…..at all….except something else to be concerned about.
It’s what the governments are planning is the serious stuff…..this will undoubtedly mean LESS democracy.
Just look at the cu*ts in the British parliament….
Increasingly in Western pseudo democracies are the hugely inflated salaries of the MPs…..essentially it seems these shits are being paid to remain silent…..start speaking out and you face the prospect of financial hardship and unemployment.
There are dozens of MPs in NZ who have feathered their nests from a few terms in office.
Ellis Taylor reply
we knew the family of the girl from Barnsley who went into kebabs,
there were said to be 7 in all who refused to comply and threatened to speak out
These 7 children have been airbrushed out of the Rochdale enquiry
Just a small bit in local papers and silence
Compare that with how the authorities played the race card day after day month after month
with Stephen Lawrence
I watched Apollo and it made me hate the Americans , not because it was fake but because they self-applauded too much and abused the great music of R Strauss. I did not know at age 6 that there was Nazi technical input (or that Strauss was Nazi)
Interglacial temps are falling, just recently the Vikings could farm Greenland
those saying record high temps are ignorant of holocene temps
https://imgpile.com/images/1ICvCk.png
central USA is currently breaking record lows since records began
the world media is run by drooling short bus imbeciles
karel–at least you do not attach your full name to your mental illness
its all only Rothschild iniciated climate bullshit !
before 30 years (before Chemtrailing) all clouds
from space looked white from space . they reflected
sun radiation back to space in natural way . today
when I look on globe in > zoom earth< I see mainly
on northern + southern globe greyish clouds between
the whites . they are accumulating since 30 years in
6 km altitude from Chemtrails . in south they spray
probably from australia . this greyish clouds naturaly
dont reflect sun radiation back to space but store the
infrared radiation . they adicional stored warmth
comes down on earth very rarely as rain or snow in
calm wind absend times with their loaded nanoparticles .
I see this specialy in winter with the perverted snow .
since decades I dont see anymore natural great snowflakes.
they come down in calm weather like little rotten
goose daunes . the greyish clouds circle around the
globe with slow speed because they are not whiped
by Yetstream in 10 km altitude . to circle around north
globe takes them probably a month . so its possible that
this greyish Chemtrail clouds dont reflect sunheat back
to space but contrary heating up the atmosphere . I think
this would come wonderful to pas for the Rothschildian
climate hystericers like all the wars, blowing up Nordstream,
Canada laser arsoning, Paradise Calif arsoning, Lahaina
arsoning, Australia arsoning, Siberia arsoning + other
suspicious (Greece,Turkey, Cypern) arsonings .
its just manmade by government criminals like Covid fraud !
by the way Brazil + Kongo fires are from poor people
clearing the woods for farming .
The cretin Gutierres yapping about “global boiling!” is all I need to know.
Frankly, if I get killed tomorrow I’ll be relieved, more than anything else.