Nicola Smith – The Daily Telegraph Jan 12, 2024

The US and British militaries launched air strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen on Thursday night in a formidable show of force, but Middle East analysts have warned they may face a protracted fight from a determined opponent.

Although the recent escalation of Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea had so far been “rudimentary,” a report this week by the London-based Royal United Services Institute warned that: “it may prove difficult for the West to effectively degrade Houthi capabilities”.

Ahead of the strikes on Thursday, Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, the leader of the Iran-backed Houthis, threatened that “any American attack will not remain without a response”.

His brash boast appears to be founded in the Houthis’ technically advanced maritime strike capabilities which have already been unleashed in a spate of attacks against international commercial vessels in the Red Sea to protest Israel’s war in Gaza.

The US military said the Houthis earlier on Thursday had staged their 27th attack on shipping since 19 November. The assaults have included the use of anti-ship ballistic missiles [ASBMs] for the first time in history.

Houthis have ‘significant maritime strike capability’

On December 30, the USS Gravely, an Arleigh-Burke-class destroyer, was forced to shoot down two ASBMs when it responded to a distress call from the Maersk Hangzhou.

“An ASBM is technically a significant maritime strike capability; the fact that a non-state actor is in possession of this kind of weapon, and is employing it with impunity, is of grave concern,” said the RUSI report.

The Houthis have a range of ASCMs available to them, as well as the capabilities to deploy drones and un-crewed kamikaze boats, write the authors of the analysis, Sam Cranny-Evans and Dr Sidharth Kaushal.

Theoretically the most sophisticated weapon among this arsenal is the Asef ASBM, which carries a 1,100lb (500kg) warhead and has a range of 250 miles (400km).

It is believed to be based on the Iranian Kahlij Fars ASBM and uses an electro-optical seeker to hone in on its target.

The truck-launched Al-Mandeb 2, which appears to be a close copy of the C-802, a Chinese ASCM sold to Iran in the 1990s, is also available to the rebels, and has been used to damage and attack multiple ships since 2016.

The US has accused Iran of either providing the weapons or of being instrumental in enabling the Houthis to build them.

A fleet of un-crewed aerial vehicles (UAVs), that can fly more than 1,500km with an explosive payload, also present a credible threat, write the RUSI authors.

They add: “The primary strength of the Houthi missile arsenal is experience. The Saudi Air Force has been conducting strikes in Yemen since 2015, which means the Houthis have become adept at minimising the damage that they cause.”

The rebels have a major weakness

But the Houthis maritime strike capabilities have a “crucial weakness” – their lack of effective targeting infrastructure.

It is believed the Iranians have been filling that gap, providing intelligence from the MV Behshad, a surveillance ship, although its capabilities are suspected to be limited.

Initial strikes on Friday morning were reported to have hit Houthi-controlled sites in Yemen, including weapons storage and drone-launching facilities.

Any operation to secure shipping against a Houthi force with the “advantage of proximity” is likely to require a “disproportionately resource-intensive effort,” said RUSI.

“A major issue facing the Coalition is not the difficulty of intercepting Houthi missiles and UAVs per se, but rather the cost of doing so and the mismatch between tactical and strategic effectiveness.”

It adds: “The Houthis are a persistent and determined opponent, and it is unlikely that they will halt their strikes simply because they are ineffective.”

But the report concludes that the Houthis’ lack of targeting sophistication creates a “manageable threat that can be countered with air defence assets in the region,” arguing that the most effective course of action would involve strikes against limited but valuable target sets.

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