Kit Knightly – Off-Guardian July 12, 2023
The buzz in the Climate Change news is that the five hottest days in the last 100,000 years all happened last week, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
You can read an article about it from Forbes:
The Fourth of July was the hottest day on Earth in as many as 125,000 years—breaking a record set the day before—as the return of the El Niño weather pattern collides with soaring temperatures at the start of summer, researchers say.
Or, if you prefer, you can read Climate alarmists rending their garments on Twitter:
The 7 hottest days on Earth in the last 100,000+ years all happened in the last week:
July 6 ~ 17.23°C / 63.01°F
July 7 ~ 17.20°C / 62.96°F
July 4 ~ 17.18°C / 62.93°F
July 5 ~ 17.18°C / 62.92°F
July 8 ~ 17.17°C / 62.90°F
July 10 ~ 17.12°C / 62.81°F
July 9 ~ 17.11°C / 62.79°F— Prof. Eliot Jacobson (@EliotJacobson) July 11, 2023
Now, first off let’s be clear – we haven’t had the “7 the hottest days” in the last 100,000 years since July 4…
…or, more accurately, there is absolutely no way for anyone to reliably know if we have or not.
Actually think about what they’re saying when they make this claim.
They are claiming that they know, for a fact, the global average temperature to two decimal points over the last 36 million days.
Couple of things to bear in mind here before we go any further.
1 – Humans have only had the ability to accurately measure the temperature of anything for maybe four-hundred years.
2 – Official “global temperature” records only began in 1880.
3 – Beyond that point we only have partial, local and pretty inaccurate readings back to the mid-17th century.
That’s 400 years, give or take.
So, how do climatologists get the data for the other 99,600 years?
Well – they guess.
Sorry, they “model”, using tree ring data and ice core samples.
NASA claims by comparing modern tree rings from known weather systems they can figure out the weather patterns that created tree rings in the past.
This is not scientific, it is interpretive.
A tree ring represents a growth cycle, that is all. The factors which affect that growth – specific to the individual tree, the local area or on a global level – are far too complicated for them to have any kind of predictive value.
Disease, volcanic activity, competition from other trees, rainfall, solar activity, parasitic insect or fungal infection…we can’t accurately account for any of these factors, and they all impact tree growth.
In short, all a tree ring can tell you is the length of a growth cycle. Everything else is extrapolation and modelling based on nothing but an a priori assumption of causation.
But really, that’s a secondary issue. There is something more important I want to talk about: The very idea of “average global temperature”.
“Average global temperature” – an entirely meaningless statistic
Using numbers and measures to bamboozle the public and control mass-opinion is not a new practice. In fact a shocking amount of propaganda is entirely predicated upon most people’s inability to actually understand statistics. (This inability is actively encouraged by the media and education system, but that’s another story).
This use of statistics probably reached its zenith with the Covid “pandemic”, but no narrative is more deeply steeped in it, or more heavily reliant on it, than Climate Change.
The appeal of using statistics in this manner is it removes the need to overtly lie.
– You can report nothing but real numbers and yet still totally mislead people.
– You can publish nothing but facts, whilst completely disregarding – or even disguising – the truth.
Damned lies and statistics, you know.
Averages – specifically mean averages – are wonderful for this.
For those who don’t know an “average” or “mean” is calculated by adding all the values within a set of numbers together and then dividing the total by the number of members in the group.
For example, if 5 friends go to dinner together and their total bill is £85, then the average each man spent on food would be 85/5, or £17.
This kind of average is excellent at creating deceptive statistics because they can be highly useful or completely misleading totally depending on context, and very few people understand that.
A good example of this problem is “average life expectancy”. I experienced this first hand when studying history in college.
Some people in my class read that life expectancy was 40 years old for men in Victorian London, and they genuinely thought that meant men were literally aging faster, going grey and getting dementia in their late 30s.
Which is completely wrong by the way.
The truth is most Victorian era males who made it to adulthood generally lived a reasonably normal lifespan, as people have been known to live from time immemorial (“three score years and ten”, according to the psalms).
However, Victorian England had a very high infant mortality, and the number of children dying before reaching 1 year old considerably lowers the average age of death.
So, the statistics appear to suggest most people died at 40, but the truth is that very few died at 40, but many died at around the age of 1 and many others died around the age of 70.
An “average” can be at the same time completely true and yet not at all representative of reality.
“Global average temperature” is the perfect example of this. It produces a number that people can be made to find scary because it lacks all context or any real-world application. It is literally meaningless.
Now, this is not just the rant of a journalist with an A level in statistics. Many scientists and academics over the years have said that the very idea of a “global temperature” is meaningless.
Such as in this paper, “Does a Global Temperature Exist?”, published in the June 2006 edition of the Journal of Non-Equilibrium Thermodynamics, which argues [emphasis added]:
There is no global temperature. The reasons lie in the properties of the equation of state governing local thermodynamic equilibrium, and the implications cannot be avoided by substituting statistics for physics. Since temperature is an intensive variable, the total temperature is meaningless in terms of the system being measured, and hence any one simple average has no necessary meaning.
As an antidote to the academic language, I’ll demonstrate with an example:
First of all, the globe is pretty huge, the scale alone can blind people. Let’s reduce it down – let’s say it’s just my kitchen. We’ll figure out the “average temperature” of my kitchen.
Second of all, we should realise that the name itself is misleading. When they talk about “average global temperature”, they obviously don’t mean they have measured literally everywhere on Earth. They really mean the “average surface-level temperature from a series of weather stations on land and weather buoys at sea.”
These temperature readings form the set we use to make our mean average. Over the globe there are thousands and thousands of these, in our kitchen we’ll just use four: One in the fridge, one in the stove and one at each end of the kitchen table.
We wake up, and the first thing we do is take the temperature at our “kitchen monitoring stations”. They are as follows: 6oC in the fridge, 19oC at both ends of the table and 17oC in the stove. Our average temperature reading: 15.25 degrees.
This data suggests the kitchen is comfortably the coldest room in the house, and is actually much colder even than average room temperature, or the average Summer day.
Later, after cooking dinner, we take the temperatures again: 6oC in the fridge, 21oC at both ends of the table and 176oC in the stove. Our average temperature is now 56oC.
This is alarming data, don’t you think? Firstly, according to this data it is no longer medically safe to even go into my kitchen, and more worryingly if this rate of increase continues my house will burst into flames by midnight tomorrow.
Certainly it’s the hottest kitchen since records began (that would be this morning). And judging by old photographs of the people who lived in this house before me, it doesn’t look like the kitchen was ever this swelteringly hot before.
Hopefully everyone reading this gets the point.
Four measuring stations across an entire room is very few, and fully 50% of them experience local extremes of temperature that a) don’t apply to the vast majority of the room and b) massively impact the final outcome.
Neither of those “average temperatures” – high or low – is even close to representative of the actual ambient temperature of the kitchen, nor is it likely to have any impact on the real lives of the real people who use that kitchen.
They do not reflect reality, and have no application to the real world.
This next bit may shock you – but the world is vastly bigger and more complex than my kitchen. Much of it has no weather station coverage at all, much of it is subject to infinitely complex local weather systems you can’t possibly account for.
A statistic is only as demonstrative as it is thorough, only as useful as it is representative of reality. You cannot create a useful “average” over a huge range of data without taking into account the local differences in systems.
The “average global height” of an adult human is 66 inches (168cm). Based on that, a 5 foot 8 inch Dutch man would be said to be “taller than average”…when he’s actually comfortably shorter than most Dutch men.
Reporting “average temperature”, from different sources over a varied and constantly changing globe, is pointless. Especially if you don’t know the context of the recorded data or the multivariate local factors that contribute to it (for example many weather monitoring stations are at airports, which are always hotter than surrounding areas, there’s also the question of “urban heat islands” and how weather stations are not evenly distributed over the world etc).
The “too long, didn’t read” version: They have no idea if last week was “the hottest week ever”, they can’t possibly know the “average global temperature” today let alone 125,000 years ago, and even if they could it would be data so vague as to be meaningless.
…of course, all of that is assuming they’re not just making them up. Which I supposed they could easily be doing.
—
Support Off-Guardian
Well the Thames use to freeze over for a while then temperatures returned to “normal”.
All these scares are designed to scare people….maybe they’ve worked out that people become more controllable if they scared?.
You could suggest most people eventually ignore the crap after a while.
Ultimately these scares have a purpose organised by the globalists.
“The Fourth of July was the hottest day on Earth in as many as 125,000 years—breaking a record set the day before—as the return of the El Niño weather pattern collides with soaring temperatures at the start of summer, researchers say…”
All the establishment need is for the average commuter to read this in the Metro. There will be twenty who believe for everyone that questions it. In fact, I wouldn’t mind betting that the average citizen is scarcely even aware of “official science”.
Apparently Eisenhower was shocked that half the americans were of below average IQ.
They used to take temperatures in the noon shade but now they take it in the noon sun. This lying scumbag knew that long before I ever read it four or five years ago. Just by that trick alone average temperatures have increased massively – and all that accurate and regular record-keeping of the previous ~130 years or so has just been shat on. All to waste, because what they do now is just a regular stream of “it’s ‘ot, innit?” propaganda.
If we get back to doing it properly there will be a large gap in the data because there’s no reliable and accurate way to adjust the figures. The only hope we have of keeping the record straight is the work of regular amateur weather watchers, enthusiasts who will be sure to keep good records.
The accuracy or truth of their claims is irrelevant so long as they support the narrative they are pushing. If they need to lie about the climate to get their policies enacted they will not hesitate to do so.
who is financing the pervert LBGT shows in libraries and schools
making our kids into homosexual perverts ?
http://www.renegadetribune.com/who-is-funding-drag-story-hours-at-california-public-libraries/
Well, they must be correct; after all, they know how big the universe is, roughly how many planets and galaxies there are, how big all the various suns and gas giants there are even though mankind has NEVER even left earth? They also know the earth is 3900 miles deep, even though the deepest they’ve drilled is 8 miles.
Absolutely amazing! All the speculation yet no proof to back it up.
Who’s the bigger fool, the fool or the fool that follows?
lf an ‘individual’ has to painstakingly define how this type of infantile gibberish ‘functions’ to confuse and mislead… then you are plainly dealing with imbeciles…idiots or even morons…
This of course should be obvious to you….because you are wasting your fucking time..’they’ can’t be helped…
. and would be much better employed having a whisky and a nice little fireside chat in an undisclosed location..
about what the Hell you are going to do..ahem.. ‘going forward’ as the SHTF with a capable acquaintance who is none of the above..
The histories of daily temperatures from thousands and thousands weather stations around the world can be checked going back at least to 1950. The Weather Spark site is reliable going back some 75 years: https://weatherspark.com. You can check the temperature patterns for hundreds of locations with weather stations and see for yourself there is no real change in temperatures around the globe in that time period.
Then there are sites where access to the temperatures of the atmosphere and the sea surface have been blocked or are mainly inaccessible to most people, most likely by some US 3-letter agency. For instance, if you try to get histories from Weather Underground https://www.wunderground.com/history
your search will be blocked by a program called Wave Browser which is essentially a virus and one which will allow your machine to be hacked. NASA sites used to be good for tracking such things as changes in “sea surface temperatures” (SST) but the sleuths have invaded those sources as well, which no doubt was very easily done as it is government funded and built largely on the money from the moon landing frauds.
Determining if our atmospheric or sea-surface temperatures are cooling or warming in any region should not be considered as rocket science as our governments pretend. Nor should such be treated as a political football and a peril to justify the UN globalist sustainability controls.
Except for the blocking of weather info to us over the past 10 years likely by some US 3-letter agency,
Also, there is no scientifically-based correlation between manmade CO2 and climate change or global warming. These ought to be facts admitted by our governments, but instead the facts have been distorted and manipulated by the globalist corporatocracy which owns and controls our governments. They screw with the facts with just about everything in exactly the same way as they fudged and manipulated Covid death and case numbers to kick off their plandemic and sustain the fear for the “emergency conditions” such that they were able to coerce billions of people to take their toxic jabs.
The “corporatocracy” which is made up of the international banking cartel, the major corporations of the globe, and our governments, is growing bigger and bigger, getting stronger and stronger, and dirtier and dirtier. All of the UN and WEF sustainability perils are fake or totally exaggerated in order to impose technocratic and totalitarian control grids over every aspect of our lives. Since Covid, unlimited QE has been funnelled into our local and federal governments with more and more people being hired for public works, and more and more people and companies becoming dependent on the government handouts. Meanwhile, ordinary wage earners in the private sector are having great difficulty holding on to their homes and supporting their families with the galloping inflation rates.
What we are seeing everywhere, at least in communist Canada, is a very rapid growth of the public sector and public works. Instead of local-city autonomy and self-determination, where I live we see the imposition by the ruling corporatocracy with another tier of government called “Metro” with a central government swallowing up the charters and powers of the local and relatively independent cities. The people have no real say in the process. For example, all of the local parks are taken over and then in come all of the useless government twirps imposing restriction after restriction. Where you once could walk anywhere over a heath of grass and weeds where there was never any erosion or ecological problem, you now find ropes restricting people to little paths, and uniformed environmental officers walking around policing our movements. This is the new normal and it is all built on bullshit from a thoroughly criminal top-down corporatocracy which has to be pulled down with the people in control put in stocks.
Then you have to automatons serving in all of the corporatocracy institutions. They are imperious to everything really going on, because if they were to pay attention and care, they likely would lose their jobs, their assets, their status, or their friends. You see this very clearly with most students in our colleges and universities. They just need the grades or the meal-ticket degree to advance and will generally support or cast a blind eye to any evil or nonsense theories poisoning their minds. Our educational systems are gone. No longer can they be considered as cradles of truth and justice or for any reform and freedom from the abuses of the growing totalitarian-technocratic monster making us into slaves.
edit
“Then you have the automatons serving in all of the corporatocracy institutions. They are impervious to ..”
https://electroverse.info/
https://wattsupwiththat.com/
https://realclimatescience.com/
My maternal grandfather was born in 1872c. and died in 1944 aged 72. My maternal grandmother was also born in 1872c. and died in 1941 aged 69. So in my opinion, considering they were only poor working-class people, they lived to be quite a good age for the time.
On Googling on the internet, I find: “It is estimated that there are roughly 200 billion galaxies (2×1011) in the ‘observable’ universe.” Also, the theory that the universe started with a Big Bang is just that…a theory! In my opinion, I believe the Universe is eternal. The Big Bang is perhaps when a galaxy comes into being, exists for ‘billions’ of years and then ceases to exist and is replaced by one or even more countless galaxies…it’s a bit like watching bubbles in a glass of champagne rise apparently from nowhere, from the bottom of the glass, only to disappear when they reach the top of it. As for time and space, each the measure of the other – and therefore their child motion – they are simply illusions that humans try unsuccessfully to comprehend. Of course, I’ve been known to be wrong in my opinions, so please don’t place too much credence on my opinion!😂
the government is your enemy
they pushed your families to fight 2 racist world wars for them on your fellow anglo saxons
why beleive anything they say ?
Well Said Shire Watch!
I’ll even print it.
They simply lie–Alex Jones personally remembers higher temperatures in Texas than the recent ones touted as the highest ever, 105 vs. 115, I think it was
White Elephant–if you make a big equilateral triangle on the Earth, the inner angles will add up to more than 180 degrees, showing the curve and also the size of the planet, provided you do it in a few different areas
I live in Southeast Europe. It was hot today, as it usually is in mid-July. I was outdoors for large parts of the day. I did not faint or get dehydrated or have to drink gallons of water. But if I were to believe the whores who call themselves “scientists” — well, apparently they are running out of colours to paint their little weather maps in deep red! Of course, before we know it, we’ll settle into a rainy autumn and a bitterly freezing winter.
But how else to keep the Climate Change game going, now that it’s become the vehicle of choice for enslaving and eradicating humankind?…