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Moon of Alabama — March 15, 2023

The the last week’s review I mentioned the AUKUS deal. It was first announced in September 2021. Back then I wrote:

Yesterday the U.S., the UK and Australia announced that the latter one will buy nuclear powered submarines to do the U.S.’ bidding against China.
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This is a huge but short term win for the U.S. with an also-ran booby price for Britain and a strategic loss of sovereignty and budget control for Australia.

It is another U.S. slap into the face of France and the European Union. The deal will piss off New Zealand, Indonesia and of course China. It will upset the international nuclear non proliferation regime and may lead to the further military nuclearization of South Korea and Japan.

Australia currently has six conventional submarines. It had ordered new ones from France but scrapped that deal for AUKUS:

The price for the new submarines Australia will have to pay will be much higher that for the French ones. Some $3 billion have already been sunk into the French contract. France will rightfully demand additional compensation for cancelling it. The new contract with the U.S. or UK will cost more than the French one but will only include 8 instead of 12 boats. As three boats are needed to keep one at sea (while the other two are training or in refit), the actual patrolling capacity for Australia’s navy will sink from 4 to 2-3 concurrent submarines at sea.

The much higher price of the fewer more complicate boats will upset Australia’s defense budget for decades to come.

I further suggested that blackmail may have played a role in the AUKUS deal.

A few day’s after the announcement there were new details publish which suggested that Australia would lease nuclear submarines from the U.S. because the new ones will take many years to build. It would upgrade Perth harbor to be able to handle nuclear propulsion boats:

Cont. reading: The Worst Deal Ever – Australia To Pay U.S. For Nuclear Insecurity