Mike Whitney – The Unz Review Feb 2, 2023
What makes the RAND Corporation’s latest report on Ukraine so significant, is not the quality of the analysis, but the fact that the nation’s most prestigious national security think-tank has taken an opposite position on the war than the Washington political class and their globalist allies. This is a very big deal. Keep in mind, wars don’t end because the public opposes them. That is a myth. Wars end when a critical split emerges between elites that eventually leads to a change in policy. The RAND Corporation’s new report, “Avoiding a long war: US policy and the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine conflict”, represents just such a split. It indicates that powerful elites have broken with the majority opinion because they think the current policy is hurting the United States. We believe this shift in perspective is going to gain momentum until it triggers a more-assertive demand for negotiations. In other words, the RAND report is the first step towards ending the war.
Consider, for a minute, this excerpt from the preamble of the report:
“The costs and risks of a long war in Ukraine are significant and outweigh the possible benefits of such a trajectory for the United States.”
This quote effectively sumarizes the entire document. Think about it: For the last 11 months we have been told repeatedly that the US will support Ukraine “for as long as it takes.” The above quote assures us that that’s not going to happen. The United States is not going to undermine its own interests to pursue the unachievable dream of expelling Russia from Ukraine. (Even the hawks no longer believe that is possible.) Rational members of the foreign policy establishment are going to evaluate Ukraine’s prospects for success and weigh them against the growing likelihood that the conflict could unexpectedly spiral out-of-control. That, of course, would serve no one’s interest and could ignite a direct clash between Russia and the United States. Also, US policymakers will decide whether the ballooning collateral damage is worth the expense. In other words, are the ruptured supplylines, the rising inflation, the increasing energy and food shortages, and the declining weapons stockpiles a fair trade-off for “weakening Russia”. Many would say, “No.”
In some respects, the RAND report is just the first in a long line of falling dominoes. As Ukraine’s battlefield losses mount –and it becomes more evident that Russia will control all the territory east of the Dnieper River– the flaws in Washington’s strategy will become more apparent and will be more sharply criticized. People will question the wisdom of economic sanctions that hurt our closest allies while helping Russia. They will ask why the United States is following a policy that has precipitated a strong move away from the dollar and US debt? And, they will wonder why the US deliberately sabotaged a peace deal in March when the probability of a Ukrainian victory is near zero. The Rand report seems to anticipate all these questions as well as the ‘shift in mood’ they will generate. This is why the authors are pushing for negotiations and a swift end to the conflict. This is an excerpt from an article at RT:
The RAND Corporation, a highly influential elite national security think tank funded directly by the Pentagon, has published a landmark report stating that prolonging the proxy war is actively harming the US and its allies and warning Washington that it should avoid “a protracted conflict” in Ukraine…
(The report) starts by stating that the fighting represents “the most significant interstate conflict in decades, and its evolution will have major consequences” for Washington, which includes US “interests” being actively harmed. The report makes it very clear that while Ukrainians have been doing the fighting, and their cities have been “flattened” and “economy decimated,” these “interests” are “not synonymous” with Kiev’s.” (“Rand calls for swift end to war“, RT)
Click to enlarge
While the report does not explicitly state that ‘US interests (are) being harmed’, it certainly infers that that is the case. Not surprisingly, the report doesn’t mention any of the collateral damage from Washington’s war on Russia, but, surely, that must have been foremost on the minds of the authors. After all, it is not the $100 billion or the provision of lethal weapons that is costing the US so dearly. It is the accelerating emergence of international coalitions and alternate institutions that has put the US empire on the fasttrack to ruin. We assume that the analysts at RAND see the same things that every other sentient being sees, that Washington’s misguided conflagration with Moscow is a ‘bridge-too-far’ and that the blowback is going to be immense and excruciating. Hence, the urgency to end the war quickly. Here’s a excerpt from the report that was posted in bold print halfway through the text:
“Since avoiding a long war is the highest priority after minimizing escalation risks, the United States should take steps that make an end to the conflict over the medium term more likely.”
Interestingly, while the report details the main escalation risks, (The main risks include a broader war with NATO, a spillover of the conflict into other EU countries, and a nuclear war.) it fails to explain why exactly a ‘long war’ would be so damaging to the United States. We believe that this omission is intentional and that the authors do not want to concede that the backfiring of sanctions and the forming of anti-American foreign coalitions is clearly undermining US plans to maintain its grip on global power. Among elites, such talk is verboten. Here’s how Chris Hedges summed it up in an article at Consortium News:
The plan to reshape Europe and the global balance of power by degrading Russia is turning out to resemble the failed plan to reshape the Middle East. It is fueling a global food crisis and devastating Europe with near double-digit inflation. It is exposing the impotency, once again, of the United States, and the bankruptcy of its ruling oligarchs. As a counterweight to the United States, nations such as China, Russia, India, Brazil and Iran are severing themselves from the tyranny of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, a move that will trigger economic and social catastrophe in the United States. Washington is giving Ukraine ever more sophisticated weapons systems and billions upon billions in aid in a futile bid to save Ukraine but, more importantly, to save itself. (“Ukraine — The War That Went Wrong”, Chris Hedges, Consortium News)
Hedges sums it up perfectly. Washington’s foolish intervention is clearing the way for the greatest strategic catastrophe in US history. And yet, even now, the vast majority of corporate and banking elites resolutely back the existing policy while shrugging off the obvious signs of failure. Case in point: The World Economic Forum posted a blanket statement of support for Ukraine on its website. Here it is:
The essence of our organization is its belief in respect, dialogue, and collaborative and cooperative efforts. We therefore deeply condemn the aggression by Russia against Ukraine, the attacks and atrocities.
Our full solidarity is with Ukraine’s people and all those who are suffering innocently from this totally unacceptable war. We will do whatever is possible to help and actively support humanitarian and diplomatic efforts.
We only hope that – in the longer-term – reason will prevail and that the space for bridge-building and reconciliation once more emerges.” (Klaus Schwab and Børge Brende, World Economic Forum)
No one should be surprised by this. Naturally, the globalists are going to come-down on the side of their expansionist wrecking-crew (NATO) instead of the world’s biggest proponent of traditional values, borders and national sovereignty. That goes without saying. Even so, the Rand report suggests that support for the war is no longer unanimous among elites. And, since elites ultimately set the policy, there is now an increasing probability that the policy will change. We see this ‘splintering of elite consensus’ as the most positive development in the last 11 months. The only way the United States is going to change its approach in Ukraine is if a growing number of elites come to their senses and pull us back from the brink. We are hopeful that that will happen, but we’re not sure that it will.
The least persuasive section of the entire report falls under the heading of: “US and Allied Commitments to Ukraine’s Security”.
The problem is easy to understand. The authors want to settle on a plan for providing security to Ukraine in order to incentivize negotiations with Russia. Unfortunately, Russia is not going to allow Ukraine to be a part of any western-backed security alliance, in fact, that is why Russia launched its invasion in the first place, to preempt Ukraine’s membership in a hostile military alliance (NATO) linked to the United States. This is a touchy subject that will undoubtedly be an obstacle in any future negotiations. But it is a matter on which there can be no ‘wiggle room’. Ukraine –or whatever is left of Ukraine– will be required to be permanently neutral and all the far-right extremists will have to be removed from the government, the military and the security services. Moscow will not pick Ukraine’s leaders, but it will make sure that those leaders are neither Nazis nor linked to any far-right nationalist organization.
Will the USG Split into Warring Camps?
As we said earlier, we think the RAND report indicates that elites are now divided on the issue of Ukraine. We think that is a positive development that could lead to negotiations and an end to the war. However, we shouldn’t ignore the fact that even the most impartial analysis can tilt favorably in the direction of the group that provides the funding. And that could be true here, as well. Keep in mind, the RAND Corporation is a nonpartisan think tank that, according to retired USAF lieutenant colonel Karen Kwiatkowski:
“works for the defense establishment, and were money to dry up there, the thinktank would not exist in it current form. It serves US government interests entirely, and is dependent upon them.” (Lew Rockwell)
What this suggests is that the RAND report may represent the views of the Pentagon and the US Military establishment who believe the United States is racing headlong towards a direct conflagration with Russia. In other words, the report may be the first ideological broadsides against the neocons who run the State Department and the White House. We suspect this split between the War Department and ‘State’ will become more visible in the days ahead. We can only hope that the more judicious faction at the Pentagon prevails.
some breaking news regarding Isabel Vaughan-Spruce, the woman who was arrested for silently praying
outide an abortion centre
Isabel was due in court tomorrow in Birmingham where she was facing criminal charges for ‘protesting and engaging in act that is intimidating to service users’.
Isabel’s court appearance has now been cancelled and the Crown Prosecution Service has indicated that the charges may now be dropped.
Due to the massive support she has recieved
While this is very welcome news, Isabel’s current legal situation remains unclear as the CPS has also stated that the charges could be reinstated at any time.
As I’m sure you will remember from my previous emails, these charges were particularly egregious as the abortion facility was not even open during the time that Isabel was caught praying.
In any event, nobody should be criminalised for praying in the privacy of their own mind.
This is clearly not the end of the matter – Isabel now needs to obtain legal clarity on the implications of her arrest and whether or not she may face future charges.
We cannot stand by and allow innocent people to be prosecuted simply because they happen to be thinking the wrong thoughts at the wrong time and in the wrong place.
It’s time to end Isabel’s ordeal. Tell the Home Secretary to ensure that all charges against her are permanently dropped.
Or you may share this urgent petition via WhatsApp or Facebook.
Thanks so much,
Caroline Farrow and the entire CitizenGO Team
P.S. When you sign, you can now also send Isabel a personal message of support.
OKAK, I started reading and then stopped.
Some very high end banks do reports. Each report to their client class is different. Only those in the inner circle gets to see the report that matters. We see this Rand report, because its of no consequence. A bit like WEF musings. Totally irrelevant.
My next point, and I’ve been saying this in one form or another for as long as I’ve been active on this site, which must be over 20yrs.
The Long War: they chat about avoiding the long war. This is utter bollox!
Empires don’t just rise and fall like souffle. Mind you, the US empire has burned very bright, but as they say, I think, they burn half as long, or much shorter.
The US empire started is decline during the mid 70s. Things got bad in the late 90s. The US was racking up the debt, and the banking system was unleashed by design, and then they threw a spanner in the works, again, by design.
When they realised they didn’t have Putin eating out of their hands, MI6 launched a secret war against Russia, this is why there’s such rage in Russia towards the UK.
Since 2008, the US and UK have been destroying global trading systems. Currency wars, illegal sanctions, and trade wars, which are an act of war.
So this long war has been going on for 15/20 years. The war in UKraine has only been going for 2 months, and much of that has been Russian preparation for what it to come.
When Russia wins in UKraine, the war will still be going on. The fighting might die down a bit.
There isn’t going to be a long hot war in UKraine. Forget the SMO, which was largely grouping and private armies, to get around Russian laws, has now been supplanted, or incorporated into a proper Russian military operation.
So when this force gets unleashed, it will be the biggest thing since WW2. There are going to be more Russian troops in UKraine, than Nazi Amerika had in Vietnam.
The SMO was a huge mistake. What is about to come, will not be a mistake, and it won’t take that long. I think by the end of August, Russia will have most of UKraine done and dusted.
The blood will be on Biden & Boris’s hands. Trump says he can resolve the entire conflict in 48 hours. I believe him, and this must terrify the US deep state, especially when Biden is by far the most corrupt US president in modern history.
Forget UKraine, can the US survive 2024? Will there even be an election? Biden could cancel based on national security grounds. All sorts of staged violence could emerge, as happened before, and as I said at the time, it just faded away, like the order to stop came from Langley.
So we’re in a long war, 15/20 years. UKraine for nearly 9yrs, but the real UKrainian war only started a couple of months ago.
The nature of warfare is changing. The power of modern weapons is such that WWIII has the potential to kill not just soldiers abroad but the elites back home. Realising this some are no longer so gung-ho as to continue their threats and provocations. They’re in range of destruction and death now. A frightful reality.
“America’s most prestigious national security think-tank” in the headlines was sufficient impetus to avoid the entire article. Well done!
What this report fails to take into account is the unsentimental Hard Man Realpolitik Strategy of stiff-upper-lip Great Britain – the United States may be faltering in its intent, but there is a degree of unmanly defeatism in their psyche which tends to manifest in crisis times such as these.
We British have maintained our resolve, and whilst the US has this RAND corporation talking up compromise, Britain has The Beatles’ Liverpool and the internationally feared and respected Eurovision to strike terror right in the beating heart of Moscow :-
‘Eurovision’s stage will use a design that demonstrates “how music can transcend borders and bring people together”, the BBC has said.
The song contest will take place at Liverpool Arena in May, with the city hosting the event on behalf of Ukraine.
The BBC said the stage was inspired by “a wide hug” to give the impression of “opening its arms to Ukraine”. ‘
Source :-
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-merseyside-64499765.amp
Thank the Good Lord that there are still some parts of the Civilised World that emphasise the hellenic virtues of Rationality and Objectivity rather than the lachrymose sentimentality alternated with infantile viciousness that characterises so much of the contemporary Western landscape –
USSA & ZOGUK:
Former “Big Swingings Dicks” on The Strip….
but now just two bums in ‘The Last Chance Saloon’ fumbling for change in their pockets…
for one last slug of liquor… and one last play of the slots… for one last chance of hitting that jackpot…
before loading that one last bullet.
Tabloid “newspapers” want the British to condemn a Ukrainian footballer who said “the N-word” in Britain, which is a sin against the Holy Race of criminals, but he was emulating one of the criminals by trying to perform some rap; that was in the small-print written by the schizophrenics, but not the head-line
Very interesting from Carl Jones.
I am not sure of many things, but pretty sure if Trump had not had the Election stolen, this would not be happening.
Putin speaking at Stalingrad memorial said German tanks coming to attack Mother Russia.
He has invoked the WW2 Russian holocaust.
Ukraine is about to be plowed under.
communisms long war on the west
https://www.theepochtimes.com/the-lefts-long-war-against-life-and-the-right-to-protect-it_5029717.html?utm_source=enewsnoe&utm_campaign=etv-2023-02-03-2&utm_medium
As Lincoln said, “One war at a time.” The US simply cannot afford to destroy Russia right now with its military, scientific community, drug industries, and intelligence organizations all very busy trying to destroy most of the people on the planet with their vast array of bioweapons. Besides, in the huge ongoing Covid war against mankind Russia was a faithful ally with the US, and still is.
If the US starts destroying Russia then with the release of the next bioweapon virus, how can the oligarchs, the US military, and any reasonable person expect Putin and the Russian government to cooperate to force lockdowns, jab all of their people with toxic substances, and make their soldiers wear masks in the Ukraine, if the US starts bombing?
Besides the war in the Ukraine is essentially a Jewish war, funded mainly through the Zio lobby in the US and the Rothschild dynasty pulling financial strings everywhere. The Soros destabilization efforts and then the actual takeover of all key positions in the nation, capped with the show biz actor, Zelensky, in 2019, all designed not for NATO but for Israel. They want Russia out of Syria and to stop backing Iran. The Ukraine under complete Zio command with the money-power backing has done everything it could to provoke Russia to invade the Ukraine, in order to drain its resources, and to bog its military down in a war it cannot afford. If Russia was to pull out of Syria tomorrow then Zelensky would very quickly cede the 4 western oblasts in the Ukraine to Russia, or vice versa. My bet is that the war is a front for a geopolitical trade.
Killing combatants and innocent people who believe it is a real war? Well there must be a safer and smarter way to get Syria and neutralize Iran than risking the Israeli population. Besides, all wars are bankers wars, and is not the priority of the powers who actually run things to get rid of most of the people anyway, or at least those not selected for the new order? Wars, pestilences, poisons, withdrawal of medical services, and famines are all necessary means in the grand enterprise of the power elites in getting rid of the unwanted.
The US/UK have chosen the Tonya Harding method for success. As you may or may not remember that she was a disgraced US Olympic competitor. All you need to be the best is to just Knee-Cap your opponents with a Lead pipe. Voilà!
Just when I am taking Donald Trump seriously again, he is joining in with Biden, Blinken and all the others in this Peter Sellers/ Bert Kwouk comedy about the ‘Chinese Spy Balloon’.
We all now expect Fear Porn along the lines of atrocity stories, false flag violence, allegations of frighteningly extreme and advanced bioweopons
technology, unstoppable lethal missiles, indestructible robo-tanks etc –
But what one doesn’t expect are headlines with graphs tracing the not remotely frightening trajectory of a Chinese Spy Balloon meandering aimlessly thousands of feet up in the sky somewhere in the vicinity of the Americas.
This is so trivial in the context it seems positively sinister – or perhaps some benevolent State has secretly perfected a highly advanced Silly Virus that has the capability of defusing World-Threatening Problems by making everybody become ridiculous and behaving irrationally but harmlessly.
In which case, we may end up having a lot to thank them for.
A lot of Commies on here Rixon.
Mosley: you wouldn’t know a commie if they slapped you in the face and screamed nyet at you.
“THICK Brits just) too DAMN DUMB to SURVIVE???’
Discuss. 🤔
@ prof susan:
IF Isabel Vaughan-Spruce is a smart girl, she will now send a registered letter to the Judge and the prosecutor in the matter and REQUIRE (NOT demand) the full accounting and the complete tax report on that charge/docket/case number, as a representative for the Estate Then she will file equity suit in chancery for trespass against the insurance and underwriting company, the town/city, the cop shop and the a** holes in uniform whom laid the charges, that would stir up so much shit, they would not come out of it..
In reality, Isabel Vaughan-Spruce, will likely not not do any of the above.. what a shame..
so more US overspending so better to help USAs
decline ! Biden does a very good job !
Just the beginning, more War coming !!! Neo-Cons are trapped, however they control the U.S.
Covid,-19 Scam and Hoax, Ukraine, Weather Lies. Tax Code, Prison for Profit, Sex acandals
The Violence are instituted and controlled by the People who are governing us.
Mind Games at work
Mystic and Yogi
Randolph–usually we drop the “m” off “whom” unless it is in a well-known phrase like “for whom the bell tolls” or after any preposition, but commenters often add one where it is not needed, even by the Vulcans: if I had political power they would start having to explain their preposterous actions or be chained to the cell-wall upside-down