Marko Marjanovic – Anti-Empire Feb 26, 2022
Putin wasn’t kidding when he said he was launching a “special military operation”. Relative to what the Russian military brought to the border this is not yet all-out war.
I would say about 30,000 Russian troops have crossed over into Ukraine so far. A small portion of the force assembled.
Moreover, the Russians are (so far) waging the war in a way that keeps civilian losses to a minimum and even trying to minimally disrupt civilian life.
The Russian operation could have opened with strikes against power plants and the electric grid (both bombed by US in Yugoslavia) that left civilians in shock and without power, and with ballistic and cruise missile strikes on Ukrainian army barracks.
Instead, the Russian enterprise is so far conducted in a way that limits not just Ukrainian civilian, but even Ukrainian military losses. The Russians have barely used their artillery.
It’s as if so far Putin is trying to conduct less a war, and more a 1968-style policing action.
Kiev’s approach has been just the opposite, to distribute weapons to civilians. To ask them to “make Molotov cocktails” and to film and publish Russian troop movements.
It’s a competition. Kiev is trying to induct the populace into a people’s war and give Moscow the kind of war it does not want. And Moscow is doing everything it can from its side to not have that happen but to instead wage a minimally disruptive regime-change.
Russia wants the populace passive, Ukraine wants it as mobilized as possible. Thus there is good reason for Russia to refrain from using all the firepower it has, but it has made the life of its troops more difficult.
This economy-of-force approach is actually typical of how Russia operates. It will try something limited and small-scale first then escalate into something bigger when that hits a wall and so on.
There are good reasons to do it the Russian way, but there is also good reason not to. Certainly on the negative side is that it means asking a lot of their troops.
The brazen helicopter assault on Gostromel Airport was the most dramatic example of this, but really all Russian troops that have been committed are being asked to do brazen stuff with not much cover.
Small units of 800 men are being told to drive along a road 50 kilometers into the enemy’s rear and to go around major cities.
It has been less Ogarkov and more Tukhachevsky. Less the long-range fires apocalypse of non-contact warfare and more the deep battle of columns racing for the rear and fighting fights that are very much contact, sometimes after driving into an ambush or running into Ukrainians head-on.
The troops themselves have done rather well actually, but of course there is a limit to how far 30K troops can go.
Ukrainian forces have eliminated the Russian crew of a BMP-2 and seized the vehicle in Kherson Oblast today. pic.twitter.com/ovQKsDaqO3
— WorldOnAlert (@worldonalert) February 25, 2022
I leave you with commentary by two other observers. You don’t have to take their word as gospel, but something worth considering.
Michael Kofman (perhaps the number one authority on the Russian military outside of Russia):
Some very early impressions of the last two days. It’s an operation with maximalist war aims, and Moscow’s thinking on this war seems to have been colored by war optimism. It looked as though Russian forces were expecting a quicker Ukrainian military collapse and easier gains.
Early campaign to knock out Ukrainian air defenses and air force had mixed results, Russian aerospace forces aren’t particularly practiced at suppresion or destruction of air defenses. Most of the strikes in the opening phase were via cruise missiles. Ukrainian air force still has some aircraft up.
A brazen heliborne assault to take Hostomel airport with a small airborne element was a puzzling move. I doubt the goal was to land more airborne at a contested airport easily covered by artillery and MLRS. Likely they expected to hold out for ground reinforcements.
So far we’ve seen only a fraction of the Russian force arrayed for the operation. Unclear if Russian forces reached initial objectives, but best estimate is they expected more rapid gains and less resistance.
Russian forces seem to be avoiding use of massed fires, except maybe around Kharkiv, focusing on trying to make a speedy advance. Expect they will revert to much larger use of fires when frustrated. Not seeing much in the way of cyber and less electronic warfare effects than many anticipated.
Russian forces are mainly sticking to the road network (as in 2014-2015). Early advances made by recon troops, but driving along roads left support units open to ambushes. Already signs of urban warfare and firefights in cities.
There has been heavy fighting around Kharkiv and in Sumy. Russian forces tried to advance past Okhtyrka, and it looks like they’re attempting to go around Kharkiv. There is also an advance west of Sumy to Konotop. This is a very incomplete picture.
Russian forces entered from Belarus and went through Chernobyl exclusion zone to Dymer. Early signs of fighting on outskirts of Kyiv in Obolonskyi distict today. They’re clearly going for the capital.
Main breakout appears to be in the south from Crimea. Russian forces pushed to Kherson, and Melitopol. There’s sustained fighting for Kherson still and around Antonovsky bridge. Some early signs they may have entered Mykolaiv, but probably just a recon element.
Russian forces retain significant quantitative and qualitative superiority. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated resolve and resilience. Russian conventional overmatch, such as it is, may not translate into attaining their maximalist political aims. This is just the opening of the war.
We should take care making assumptions on how this war will progress based on the opening 24-48 hours. The Russian military clearly tried something. I think it at best yielded mixed results for them. They will adjust.
What’s clear is that is that if Moscow had hopes of quick and easy gains, they were terribly optimistic.
My main concern is that over time the Russian military may revert to heavy use of firepower, and this will result in immense destruction, and large civilian casualties.
Andrei Zhukov (a random Twitterer but to an extent he is on to something):
Russia is bombing fuel and ammunition depots, but the Russian army does not bomb the places where Ukrainian armored vehicles and personnel gather. Why? Because they still hope that their fairy tales about friendship, peace and the international will work.
Due to the fact that the night of February 24 did not strike the barracks of the AFU, the Russian army is now suffering losses
Russian troops are moving quickly in small columns from one city to another, without even getting a foothold in it and not clearing it from the partisans. The logistics support that goes after them comes under fire from the Ukrainian army.
The Russian army currently does not control a single city – they just drive by, leaving the cities in the rear. The Ukrainian military calmly enter these cities and try to strike, so it was in Sumy.
Russian planes are not at work – they simply do not bomb the columns of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, still hoping for desertion and the transition to the Russian side. Again, THIS DOES NOT WORK, a tolerant attitude towards the Ukrainian military has led to losses, prisoners.
For example. Rosgvardia and OMON are going together with the military to “take Kiev”(!). Internal troops should follow the military AFTER the army destroys the Ukrainian army in a given sector. This did not happen. They just go ahead into Kiev blindly.
The Ukrainian army will still be destroyed, but the Russian army is suffering unjustified losses that could have been avoided.
Much of this analysis is correct.
The Russians are engaging in surgical strikes with the intention of removing the US puppet regime. Time is of the essence. They should however have deployed more resources, as the West will increasingly trickle in more mercenaries and supplies in order to keep the conflict going.
Yes, there have been Ukrainian defections, but it needs to be remembered that the average Ukrainian is just as stupid and brainwashed as the public in the West. Russian estimates of defections may have been too optimistic, especially if the war is allowed tio drag on.
The possibility of a false flag chemical or other incident (the Russians are aware of this – note the emphasis on seizing Chernobyl), increases with time. The false flag shooting down of a NATO country aircraft is a strong possibility, as that would then allow direct NATO involvement.
Russia should target Britain for reprisals, as that country is a US puppet and is the prime mover in this situation.
If Russia is cut off from SWIFT, then all gas supplies to Europe should be terminated at once. That will lead to the lights going out all over Europe. Widespread civil disorder and disruption would follow – all without Russia firing a shot.
Western propaganda is so bad they’re running a story titled, ‘Last time I saw Andriy he was in high heels. Now, like many of my friends, he’s taken up arms’
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/last-time-saw-andriy-high-070006288.html?
I certainly do not see it as Russia vs Ukraine like our bent press do. Russia can have Ukraine, like they did when the Kremlin was Yid-man’s, because Ukra is more Russian than Russia, apart from the hypocrisy argument I just mentioned. This article suggests again an heroic Russia, making life difficult for its soldiers to make it easy for the local people. (A “troop” is not a soldier, by the way, but a group of at least three, but people are relaxed these days about destroying their language).
This is perhaps the most intelligent, objective, and realistic analysis of the Ukraine-Russia conflict I have yet to read. Putin is bending over backwards to prosecute a “soft” war to avoid the kind of bad press it’s getting in the west…which is harking on Putin’s actions as brutal, barbaric, merciless, and extremely lethal and taking innocent lives without remorse. Putin may also be thinking of the possibility of being tried for war crimes, should things not work out for Russia in their operation and they are embarrassingly defeated. But as we see, the western media is going to fill the air waves with images and essays on Russian atrocities in Ukraine no matter how “soft” Putin’s invasion attempts to be. And just like Vietnam was for the USA, asking your troops to fight a determined enemy with one hand tied behind their back eventually will result in serious demoralization of Russia’s troops. I understand Putin’s desire not to appear too heavy-handed in this action. He does not have the privilege retained only by American and Israeli armed forces to employ indiscriminate “shock and awe” military actions whenever it wishes to…thereby leaving a country or region in complete ruins and shambles and walking away as if nothing happened, and without worry of any consequences (such as rightfully being prosecuted for crimes against humanity). Putin does not have that privilege and therefore must tread lightly, no matter the cost to his own troops. As the saying goes, never point a loaded gun at someone unless you are intent on using it. Putin has drawn his gun from its holster, but he is quite timid about using it at this point. That could mean disaster for him and the people of Russia. To be fair, the man is between the proverbial rock and the metaphorical hard place…and it’s pretty much just him against the entire western world…like Germany during the WW2 era.
He’s not an idiot.
Only americunts destroy every bit of infrastructure when they invade a country, and this is not an “invasion” dumbarses, any more than the US would “invade” texas if Putin installed a gaggle of unelected joos and took over the state.
There’s a BLACKOUT of media there – just lies reported – sorta like Poland before WW2….This might be kinda sorta why he may not want to destroy communications?
Duh.
HOLY ENERGY CRISIS COME !
YES BIDEN WE DONT NEED
YOUR EXPENSIVE GAS !
Anyone here on this site or anywhere else who does not see the relevance of the issue of any government anywhere coercing (i.e. forcing) ANYONE and not just their entire population to inject into their bodies a substances or substances the subjects have no basis of knowing or confirming the ingredients, nor the actual purpose, or the risks, is either a total dunce or they do not want to see the relevance because they are really in compliance with the totalitarian NWO methods and ends to cancel their basic rights and integrities as human persons. The overwhelming evidence is that is what our governments – all acting in unison – are doing. They are subjugating everyone to the resurrection of an old-world, top-down tyranny of the rule by the Few. It is rule that can only be achieved by mass deception, continuous fear, and unending oppression. The Kremlin is just as much a part of it as the US deep state, or Schwab’s WEF.
As for the skirmishes we will soon find our they are all real but prearranged for everything to fit into prearranged boundaries. Covid ought to have taught any truther that nothing, absolutely nothing, coming out of the mouths of our political leaders and the bull-stream media can be trusted as being true. Covid clearly taught us that – from the release of the actual US bioweapon virus (with the cooperation of all of our governments, including the Kremlin), to the totally unnecessary lockdowns – to the deliberate killing of millions of vulnerable and frail people by the suppression on known and proven therapeutics – to the gross exaggerations of death and case numbers to increase public fear – to the forced jabbing of billions of people with completely unnecessary, unknown, and toxic substances – that the entire top-down corporatocracy behind the pandemic is totally evil and our real enemy.
Our attention should not be diverted by the antics of the Putin and Biden puppets on the world stage with their very controlled little war in the Ukraine, allegedly over some economic issues like natural gas sources or NATO boundaries, when the same NWO of freaks running our nations, including Russia, are doing everything in their power depress our economies through the Covid fraud anyway.
The question for truthers who want freedom from the chronic “top-down” establishment “rule by stealth” based on mass deception, mass fear mongering, and mass oppression (as exhibited most clearly for any one who is awake) is simply – who is behind not just NATO in relation to provoking the Russian annexation but who is really behind the Covid tyranny? Is it the US-UK-led corporatocracy made up of our national governments, the two major banking dynasties, and all of the major corporations, as all the planning and most of the deceit and oppression evidence clearly shows? If so, then the next question ought to be – why would Russia be such a cooperating party to the biggest fraud over the people everywhere, having willingly subjected its own people to the same top-down Covid tyranny.
The spoon feeding of the people who want truth, freedom and real justice, is simply going too slow. Too many people who want these things are compromised and are not prepared to make any real sacrifices. We find in our conversations shallow opinions regarding blame and causation of the Covid fraud. Many are afraid to even look. The cognitive dissidence generated is just too great. They cannot afford to affix any blame to their sacred cows. On every issue it seems that those who say they are seeking the truth either are so numbed into thinking that everything just happens and actual cause is irrelevant, or they ignore the obvious evidence to fix blame unless it happens to coincide with one of their traditional enemies. Yet, they all demand justice. No wonder the grass roots is so disorganized and so easily misled.
The real war going on right now is against the people of every nation by the ruling corporatocracy. They have pre-announced their plans corresponding to their pre-announced vision, of a so-called New World Order where essentially their are no intrinsic and inalienable personal rights except those to be bestowed on the numbered and shackled subjects at the pleasure of the those at the top. Without even looking at all of the planning evidence, what has clearly emerged over the past two years is that the entire Covid operation, as with the UN Agendas and the WEF reset operations, have all been engineered by the same crowd. The entire Covid experience is proof that the fraud and the oppression is to usher in complete control over each of us and over our vital interests and personal rights and freedoms.
The precedent is now established for continuous jabs with substances unknown to the recipients injected into them under the alleged “emergency conditions” from the long-term planned pandemic. The precedent is established that any cold or flu can be deemed a “pandemic”, and the evidence also is that because the initial jabs came under those emergency conditions, then so called “booster” jabs will continue under that rubric of substances we have no real right to know the ingredients or the risks. Any promises to the contrary by anyone in authority is simply a lie.
The sophistication in the top-down tyranny includes their plans that any jab of any substance can be tailored to and directed to any particular individual they want- all blind to that individual – and can be used for any purpose the top-down authorities deem appropriate. That is the essence of their control plans over us – control over our lives and over all of our vital interests. But what do you expect when you kick out God and his laws?
Fred B is angry about the same thing Alex Jones is. AJ says he dropped the ball with the yook business because COV is the murder of the Western world (my words) and we know what kinds of distractions will be needed if and when the body count really goes up from now to 2030. The third pile of BS is carbon, the big excuse to kill Whitey, but somehow not anyone else who is going to be burning things. The masses never noticed that the Jews never stop insinuating a spiritual imperative to murder honky’s genetics. Now I have thankfully left the sphere of both AJ and Fred God.
if the Ukrainian people had any clue what’s really going on they would take the AK47’s given them and hunt down every jew and sellout to jews in the country.
Oh yeah, they went scurrying away on buses like the rats they are after igniting the fire.
the only way this global insanity will even begin to stop is to start hunting these jewish bastards down and bury them
Your lack of discernment is what is showing. Turn off the jew media, it’s all lies.
Fred B wrote:
“why would Russia be such a cooperating party to the biggest fraud over the people everywhere, having willingly subjected its own people to the same top-down Covid tyranny?”
Maybe because Russia had signed on to the 1992 Rio De Janeiro Accord pertaining to Agenda 21. All those signatory countries agreed to relinquish their authority to the WHO and associated Public “Health” Officials in the event of a declared pandemic.
One would need to find out what effects the quaxx has had on the Russians. How bad were the Russian injections? Maybe the Russians all got a saline solution? Now that would be a smart way to fool the western dope pushers like Trudope, Goe BuyThem and the rest of these quack heads.
I can’t wait for Putin and the Russians to invade Canada! Our less-than-useless armed forces haven’t even identified the enemy yet! Their salary depends on their ability to pretend to be stupid; they have become too good at it…
Please Mr. Putin, come to Canada and liberate us from the liberals. You can Hudson’s Bay!