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Introduction – June 29, 2021

Either the Guardian is trying to “dumb down” its readers, or it assumes that they are already very stupid.

“The vaccines are not perfect”, claims the Guardian but in doing so it entirely misses the point. It normally takes up to 15 years to fully test a new vaccine. Meaning that the Covid vaccines are still essentially EXPERIMENTAL. So we do not know what their long-term impact will be.

However, the Guardian ignores what should be obvious and continues:

“We can perhaps assume there is at least 95% protection against Covid-19 death, which means the lethal risk is reduced to less than a twentieth of its usual value.”

Again the Guardian entirely and perhaps even deliberately misses the point. Given that the survival rate among those infected with Covid-19 is in excess of 99 percent, why get vaccinated when the vaccine itself could be potentially lethal?

What this article does do is illustrate how the MSM is trying to allay quite genuine public concerns about the vaccine. While it pretends to open-minded and liberal, the Guardian is using pure sophistry to promote the official vaccination policy.

In essence the media is working with the authorities to disseminate disinformation that could have dire consequences for readers who don’t think for themselves. Ed.

Why most people who now die with Covid in England have had a vaccination

David Speigelhalter and Anthony Masters — The Guardian June 27, 2021

A MailOnline headline on 13 June read: “Study shows 29% of the 42 people who have died after catching the new strain had BOTH vaccinations.” In Public Health England’s technical briefing on 25 June, that figure had risen to 43% (50 of 117), with the majority (60%) having received at least one dose.

It could sound worrying that the majority of people dying in England with the now-dominant Delta (B.1.617.2) variant have been vaccinated. Does this mean the vaccines are ineffective? Far from it, it’s what we would expect from an effective but imperfect vaccine, a risk profile that varies hugely by age and the way the vaccines have been rolled out.

Consider the hypothetical world where absolutely everyone had received a less than perfect vaccine. Although the death rate would be low, everyone who died would have been fully vaccinated

The vaccines are not perfect. PHE estimates two-dose effectiveness against hospital admission with the Delta infections at around 94%. We can perhaps assume there is at least 95% protection against Covid-19 death, which means the lethal risk is reduced to less than a twentieth of its usual value.

But the risk of dying from Covid-19 is extraordinarily dependent on age: it halves for each six to seven year age gap. This means that someone aged 80 who is fully vaccinated essentially takes on the risk of an unvaccinated person of around 50 – much lower, but still not nothing, and so we can expect some deaths.

The PHE report also reveals that nearly a third of deaths from the Delta variant are of unvaccinated people over 50, which may be surprising given high vaccine coverage; for example, OpenSAFELY estimates more than 93% among the 65-69s. But there are lower rates in deprived areas and for some ethnicities and communities with limited coverage will continue to experience more than their fair share of loss.

Coverage and effectiveness are important numbers for assessing vaccination programmes. It is better to look at cool analysis by analysts, rather than hot takes on social and other media.

 

Continues …