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Introduction – Dec 23, 2020

This guy has a habit of making alarmist forecasts but by his own admission, his talk of “explosive” outbreaks in London and the South East is based on “anecdotal reports”, not hard science.

So why is the government still listening to him? It’s a question that needs to be asked because Professor Ferguson has record of vastly overstating potential public health threats:

In 2001 he predicted 130,000 deaths from Mad Cow Disease. There were in fact 200.

In 2002 Prof. Ferguson predicted 50,000 deaths in the UK from Mad Cow Disease. There were in fact 177 but as a result of his warnings literally millions of cattle and sheep were slaughtered.

In 2005 Prof. Ferguson predicted 150 million deaths from Bird Flu. There were actually 282.

Despite such an appalling track record Professor Ferguson is still advising the government on its health policies. Why, when he has been proven so consistently wrong in the past are they still listening to him?

Or is the government simply using Prof. Lockdown to scare the public with his forecasts of impending doom? Is this the authorities way of preparing the public psychologically for the imposition of more draconian measures?

New coronavirus variant has triggered ‘explosive’ outbreaks in schools in London and the South East, says ‘Professor Lockdown’ Neil Ferguson as he warns the strain has likely spread all over Europe already

  • Prof Ferguson said there’d been ‘anecdotal reports’ of ‘more explosive’ clusters
  • Data has suggested children more susceptible to new, rapidly-spreading variant 
  • Also suggested every EU country had cases of strain, even though not detected

Connor Boyd – Daily Mail Dec 23, 2020

There have been ‘explosive’ coronavirus outbreaks in schools in London and the South East in recent weeks, ‘Professor Lockdown‘ Neil Ferguson revealed today.

His comments come amid fears the mutant strain of the virus plaguing the capital and the commuter belt makes children more susceptible to Covid-19 infection.

Professor Neil Ferguson. Click to enlarge

Professor Ferguson –  who quit SAGE after he was caught breaking social distancing rules to meet his married lover during Britain’s first lockdown – said there had been ‘anecdotal reports’ of ‘more explosive’ clusters in schools since November.

The Imperial College London epidemiologist, who still sits on the SAGE sub-groups NERVTAG and SPI-M, said it added to a growing body of data showing the new variant is making up an unusually large proportion of cases in children.

Children were very unlikely to get infected by previous strains of Covid – which was unusual because lots of viral infections like flu transmit more easily in youngsters –and it was extremely rare for someone under the age of 16 to develop symptoms

However, Professor Ferguson said the changes in the new variant may make children ‘more like adults’ in terms of how easy it is for the virus to infect and spread between them.

The scientist also warned the strain – believed to be up to 70 per cent more infectious than normal Covid – will already be circulating ‘in the vast majority, if not all’ European countries, despite only a handful confirming cases.

Experts say the variant was only spotted thanks to Britain’s world-leading genetic sequencing capabilities and would have likely been missed if it emerged in other nations.

The UK was made a continental pariah this week as EU countries shut their borders to British travellers in a bid to contain the spread of the variant.

Professor Ferguson told the House of Commons Science and Technology Committee today: ‘There are anecdotal reports that the last few weeks have seen more explosive school outbreaks in London and the South East of England, but they are just anecdotes at the moment.

But he added: ‘You see a statistically significant increased proportion of cases in under-15-year-olds for the variant compared to the non variant.

‘Beyond that we know nothing. There could be a number of hypotheses why that might be the case.

Continues …

Comment – Dec 23, 2020

According to the above, the new “variant was only spotted thanks to Britain’s world-leading genetic sequencing capabilities and would have likely been missed if it emerged in other nations.”

Given that many Covid cases are asymptomatic – meaning that patients don’t actually exhibit any symptoms – then Covid-19 might not have been identified without an examination of genetic sequencing.

Or if the infected did in fact display symptoms then they might have been mistaken for seasonal cold or flu.

All of which suggests that talk about a Covid-19 “pandemic”, might be just that: talk. Even Prof. Ferguson himself admits that reports of “explosive” outbreaks in London and the South East are based on anecdotal evidence rather than hard science.

In terms of scale, the Covid “pandemic” seems little more widespread than the variants of seasonal colds and flu we get every few years. They are also variants of the coronavirus and every so often they appear to take their toll, particularly among the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Just like Covid-19 is doing now.

The only difference now is the authorities reaction, or more precisely, their over-reaction.