Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Posted by Andrew –statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu May 8, 2020
John Fund writes:
[Imperial College epidemiologist Neil] Ferguson was behind the disputed research that sparked the mass culling of eleven million sheep and cattle during the 2001 outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. He also predicted that up to 150,000 people could die. There were fewer than 200 deaths. . . .
In 2002, Ferguson predicted that up to 50,000 people would likely die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. In the U.K., there were only 177 deaths from BSE.
In 2005, Ferguson predicted that up to 150 million people could be killed from bird flu. In the end, only 282 people died worldwide from the disease between 2003 and 2009.
In 2009, a government estimate, based on Ferguson’s advice, said a “reasonable worst-case scenario” was that the swine flu would lead to 65,000 British deaths. In the end, swine flu killed 457 people in the U.K.
Last March, Ferguson admitted that his Imperial College model of the COVID-19 disease was based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than a coronavirus. Ferguson declined to release his original code so other scientists could check his results. He only released a heavily revised set of code last week, after a six-week delay.
So the real scandal is: Why did anyone ever listen to this guy?
I don’t know. It’s a good question. When Ferguson was in the news a few months ago, why wasn’t there more discussion of his atrocious track record? Or was his track record not so bad? A google search turned up this op-ed by Bob Ward referring to Ferguson’s conclusions as “evidence that Britain’s political-media complex finds too difficult to accept.” Regarding the foot-and-mouth-disease thing, Ward writes, “Ferguson received an OBE in recognition for his important role in the crisis, or that he was afterwards elected a fellow of the prestigious Academy of Medical Sciences.” Those sorts of awards don’t cut much ice with me—they remind me too much of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences—but maybe there’s more of the story I haven’t heard.
I guess I’d have to see the exact quotes that are being referred to in the paragraphs excerpted above. For example, what did Ferguson exactly say when he “predicted that up to 150,000 people could die” of foot-and-mouth disease. Did he say, “I expect it will be under 200 deaths if we cull the herds, but otherwise it could be up to 2000 or more, and worst case it could even be as high as 150,000?” Or did he flat out say, “150,000, baby! Buy your gravestone now while supplies last.”? I wanna see the quotes.
But, if Ferguson really did have a series of previous errors, then, yeah, Why did anyone ever listen to this guy?
Comment – Oct 24, 2020
Professor Neil Ferguson. Click to enlarge
In answer to the above, governments still listen to Prof Ferguson but they don’t necessarily base their policies on what he says. Instead, they are using his “advice” to justify policies that have already been decided on. There is a difference.
Professor Ferguson is simply providing the necessary statistical cover with which to rationalize pre-determined policies. In the eyes of the ill-informed layman, those policies might have seemed unacceptable were it not for the horrific statistical projections provided by Ferguson. These projections are presented as a scary alternative scenario for the ill-informed should they not abide by official directives.
Governments around the world are being instructed on what to do and the likes of Professor Ferguson are simply providing statistical window dressing to justify their actions. Ed.
‘Professor Lockdown’ warns ‘people WILL catch virus and die’ if they are allowed to mix on Christmas Day
Katie Weston – Mail Online Oct 24, 2020
Britain has recorded 23,012 more Covid-19 cases, up 2,482 from yesterday, as Professor Neil Ferguson warns people ‘will catch the virus and die’ if they are allowed to mix on Christmas Day.
There were 174 deaths within 28 days of a positive test, down from 224 on Friday, including 33 deaths in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, and 141 fatalities in England.
Meanwhile Professor Ferguson, whose modelling led to the original lockdown in March, said earlier today that schools may have to be closed to older pupils if restrictions on households mixing fail to stem the rise of infections, and that it will be a ‘political judgement’ as to whether regulations are relaxed over the festive season.
He told BBC Radio 4’s Today Programme: ‘It risks some transmission and there will be consequences of that. Some people will die because of getting infected on that day.
‘But if it is only one or two days the impact is likely to be limited. So that is really a political judgment about the cost versus the benefits.’
It follows the prospects for a family Christmas descending into further confusion yesterday, as Downing Street insisted that relatives should be able to gather – but a minister warned it will not be ‘normal’.
Professor Ferguson added: ‘That (banning households mixing) should have a significant effect but as yet we have been unable to see it definitively.
‘If we go beyond that there is a limit to what we can do in terms of reducing contacts, short of starting to target, for instance, the older years in schools and sixth form colleges where we know older teenagers are able to transmit as adults.
He’s a xxxx
Who elected this failure? How do we unelect him?
Rixon,
You state:
“More grim prediction from Prof Neil Ferguson, but as the record show he has been consistently wrong. So why do governments even listen to him?”
As brilliant as you are in bringing together consistent stories of fighting against tyranny, from all over the world, I’m perplexed by your above statement, in the caption to this article.
The government is selected long before any election takes place by the people. Sure, they can vote for their Mr Jones of so and so to represent them and you know, he may very well be sympathetic to the people, but those IN government, IN the cabinet are nothing but puppets, who know PRECISELY what their job is. And Neil Ferguson? You seriously don’t think he’s in on the game?
Were I to take over a country, what would be the first thing I’d do? Well there would be two things; I’d take over the main stream media and academia to bring about the complete indoctrination of the younger generations and brainwash the older ones. What would I do next? I’d capitalize on controlling major institutions; politics, health, electricity, gas, water and food production. I’d also seek to control the means of food distribution and what went INTO that food. And to make more money, I’d privatize them with one of the political ideologies, say conservatism and when the people got pissed with the conservatives and voted in the socialists, I’d nationalize, playing a constant game of selling and buying.
Many people here will know that the Royal Institution for International Affairs and their sister organization, the Council on Foreign Relations have been responsible for putting in prime ministers and presidents for over 120 years, at least. Just as the leaders of these governments groomed, while at university, so to are the other members of cabinet, who most likely end up running for leadership some time in the future.
The government is following an agenda and all are in on it.
Neil Ferguson is following an agenda and many in the health industry are also in on it.
Those, in charge, have spent considerable time in positioning all their puppets, within ALL major establishments over the last 70 years and the result of their planning is today’s nightmare.
Neil Ferguson and the government know exactly what they’re doing. They’re stalling on everything, giving excuses left, right and centre to why the lockdown must continue, while the economy goes into meltdown, food production grinds to a halt and total chaos is months, (if not weeks) away.
It’s constant deceit after deceit. And their lackeys in the msm play along, of course deceiving the public, shouting out that everyone who protests are racists, fascists and nazis. And the people get angry because they’ve been conditioned all their lives to hate the nazis, courtesy of constant msm and academia indoctrination along with Hollywood propaganda.
Everything is deceit. And the people are too stupid to actually see what’s going on. You see, they’ve lost who they are. They’re consumers. Their whole raison detre in life is to buy and sell. That’s it. They have no care for anything outside their sad, pathetic, greedy, selfish, ignorant lives. They wake up, have breakfast, go to work, talk about the nonsense they watched on the TV last night, who won against who in whatever sport, what celebrity is dating who, finish their work, come home, eat dinner, turn on the TV, go to bed – rinse and repeat. And in between all of that they’re buying the latest I-phone, computer, playing whatever video game, getting a tattoo and looking for sex. That’s the life of the automaton within western civilization. In fact, they’re already robots and don’t realise it. They have absolutely NO connection to this earth whatsoever.
England has become too accustomed to taking these spazwank people seriously.
Our species is simply hell bent on illogical psychopathic governence and denial of truth. It was a good run y’all.
We are governed by the descendants of powerful sub families of old, who populate the Round Table(groups) made up of the Trilateral Commision, RIIA, Club of Rome, Council of Foreign Relations, UN and the Bilderberg Group. Look at the members. All related somehow. Look at Presidents. Get the picture? Its mainly a white gentile conspiracy. The group that’s even richer and more powerful make up the Committee of 300. Again mainly white gentiles. And the group that’s the richest and most powerful are the crown of the conspiracy and make up the Council of 13. Again white gentiles.
Notice none of these government/health officials or the mass media vermin ever say anything about the ‘virus spreading’ when BLM (Bipedalape Lives Matter) or CIAntifa scum gather in large groups to riot & protest.
White elephant, thanks once again. My sentiments. You deserve much credit. I cannot add to your comments because it is what I would write.
Who are you? It matter not, the substance to your comments are on point. Thanks again
Mystic and Yogi.
Eric Blessing.
You ommitted Freemasonry ?
Do you really believe it’s all about white gentiles. Certain Jewish families have great influence in this NWO. These people seem to hold themselves apart from the white gentiles. But I do not believe for one minute that the people of any one race or creed or culture are more wicked than the others. Just some are better at working out a common purpose.
White Elephant.
You echo my sentiments although I hasten to add that Rixon has my utmost respect and this website among others has helped me learn a mighty lot over 17 or so years.
I would LOVE to visit him on Christmas day and prove him right by putting the world out of misery by putting this freeloading reptilian LEECH into the HELL he belongs
I hope, that some have their name in the black book, to be used in Nuremberg II ….
Hello Jahi,
I’m someone, awake and seeing, crystal clear what’s going on, like you and others on this forum. I’ll remain the ‘white elephant’ in the room, but you will certainly know of whom I represent.
The conspiracy is CONTROLLED by freemasonry, under guidance of the Rothchild family. International zionism is under control of the Committee of 300 and in the hierarchy even under the Round Table groups. The Black Nobility, Freemasonry and the 13 most rich, most powerfull (also occult power)families tied into the Papacy(Jesuits) and Maltese Knights, their warmachine, are more or less the make up of the Bilderberg group. This is just my vieuw. Take Knight of Malta Bush senior., related to the Queen of England, the House of Hannover, can trace his lineage back 5000 years. He is in the lowest sub group but take the Pallavicini and Orsini families they are in the highest BN group.
ready to fight if weapons are available,
But would you?
You see, removing someone like Tony Blair and all the others, who have caused so much wrong in this world, is over and done with in an instant. What you do is you make them suffer, not for an hour, a day, a week, a month or a year, but for the rest of their time on this earth.
You then bring them to trial for clear treason (after EVERYONE in the judiciary has been removed, also facing treason and sitting in a prison), but you DON’T execute them. You strip them, first and foremost of what power they have, then you seize their wealth and all assets – everything. Some would think that they should be paraded through the streets, to be spat on, cursed at and have rotten fruit and vegetables thrown at them, but there would be a chance that some very angry individual would get close and end their existence.
No, you wouldn’t want that. Lock them away, in a deep, deep chasm; in a cage, some 3ftx3ft or smaller where they could never get comfortable. Stack more cages, above, filled with the world’s evil within, all naked to shiver when it gets cold. Give them scraps of food to eat, as the last thing you want is for them to starve to death. And while they shiver in their cage, their teeth will rot and they will have terrible pain, more so, all those above will be defecating and urinating on all those below, even better when you give them food that will result in constant diarrhea. It would be pitch black, where the screams and torment of all around would keep people awake when it was time to sleep, adding to their suffering with sleep deprivation.
It would be something out of an Edgar Allen Poe book, a hell on earth for the evil to get a glimpse of the hell that awaits them, knowing that no one was coming to save them as their New World Order had been completely destroyed.
The Committee of 300 was by Doctor John Coleman, and what happens is that people secretly hope that their own mob is the real power so, for him, it was all MI6 and Tavistock and the Round Table etc. but Jew money integrated with GB aristocracy in the Nineteenth Century.
White Elephant (October 26, 2020 at 12:11am)
I suspect most people here would agree with your solution in that it’s nothing less than the (((scum))) deserve, but we Humans are a compassionate species, at least the White Race are. I can’t speak for the others.
We’re right to want the (((monsters))) to suffer for the rest of their useless existence, but could we do it? Could we endure the screams of what are really non-Human DEVILS without feeling at least a twinge of, albeit undeserved, sympathy for them?
It looks good in theory, and is exactly what they’d do to us given the chance, but unlike (((them))), WE are HUMAN BEINGS. We CAN’T switch our Human emotions off and enjoy the suffering of others for more than a very short time.
We get constant lying “gas chambers” LIES from them, so why not herd them into gasLESS chambers and be done with it? Revenge is sweet, but we don’t share their capacity for cruelty, so drive them into sealed rooms and let them suffocate.
Minimal outlay and no danger of poisoning ourselves by handling the bodies.
Show me the proof. Show me on TV news people in overcrowded hospital wards lying in beds, very ill or dying. Show me dead bodies piling up in morgues, or in body bags in warehouses. Show me people dropping dead in the street like flies. Then maybe I’ll believe all this crap! Until then, I don’t believe a word!