Introduction – March 30, 2020

New information and analysis suggest that the initial response to corona virus has been a wild overreaction.

The UK government’s response was based on estimates of Professor John Ferguson of Imperial College, London, who originally calculated that as many as 500,000 could die of the corona virus. He then revised that estimate to 20,000 deaths.

Meanwhile another paper by colleagues at Imperial predicted just 5,700 deaths if the lockdown continues, almost one hundred times fewer fatalities. Despite this dramatic reduction the lockdown remains in the UK and has now been extended in the U.S.

Will Trump extend the lockdown again? Will it become a permanent feature of life globally? Are we entering a period of globally imposed martial law?

Trump says keeping US Covid-19 deaths to 100,000 would be a ‘very good job’

David Smith – The Guardian March 30, 2020

President Trump has extended America’s national shutdown for a month, bowing to public health experts, and scientific reality, and warning that the worst of the coronavirus pandemic is yet to come.

Speaking in the White House Rose Garden, the US president claimed that, if his administration keeps the death toll to 100,000, it will have done “a very good job” – a startling shift from his optimistic predictions of a few days ago when he said he hoped to restart the economy by Easter.

Trump also undermined his plea for unity by uttering falsehoods, verbally abusing reporters and making incendiary allegations that implied health care workers were stealing masks, without providing evidence.

The extended deadline marked a humiliating retreat for the president who, having squandered six precious weeks at the start of the pandemic, more recently complained that the cure is worse than the problem and floated Easter Sunday as a “beautiful timeline” for reopening big swathes of the country.

On Sunday he claimed this had only been “aspirational” as his advisers urged him not to move too hastily. He announced the initial 15-day period of social distancing urged by the federal government, which was due to expire on Monday, would be extended to 30 April, and said he hoped normality might return by 1 June.

The guidelines recommend against big group gatherings and urge older people and anyone with existing health problems to stay at home. People were also urged to work at home when possible and avoid restaurants, bars, non-essential travel and shopping trips.

“The modelling estimates that the peak in death rate is likely to hit in two weeks,” Trump told reporters, with the toll already at more than 2,400. “Nothing would be worse than declaring victory before the victory is won. That would be the greatest loss of all.”

Continues …