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Introduction – March 19, 2020

Six months ago international organisations met in New York to simulate a hypothetical global pandemic. Now large parts of the world are in lockdown because of just such a pandemic.
Like the simulated terror drills that were conducted in London on 7/7 and New York on 9/11 this really is too much of a coincidence. As a mentor repeatedly warned: “There is no such thing as coincidence”.
Was the October gathering in New York a simulated dry run for the Coronavirus pandemic? Is the current Coronavirus scare the biological equivalent of 9/11?

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A New York simulation showed we weren’t prepared for coronavirus. But it’s not too late to act

Børge Brende, President World Economic Forum – March 9, 2020

  • A simulation responding to a hypothetical global health emergency showed the world was unprepared.
  • We must come together for a systemic response based on facts, not fear.
  • Leaders in the private-sector have an important role to play.

Last fall, sixteen leaders from governments, businesses and international organizations gathered in New York to conduct a simulated response to a hypothetical global health emergency. We looked at the challenges that could arise in such a scenario, which was increasingly likely given the world has about 200 epidemic events per year. We could not know the exercise would become a reality just months later – but the conclusion was sobering: if it did, the global community was woefully unprepared.

A few months later, the first cases of COVID-19 were reported in China. By the end of January, more than 500 people had been infected, and Wuhan, the origin of the outbreak, had been placed under quarantine. Now, COVID-19 has spread internationally and affected more than 90,000 people, leading to more than 3,000 deaths. The OECD expects it will also cause significant economic damage: global economic growth could slow by 1.5 percent, putting the world in a technical recession.

We couldn’t have predicted this specific outbreak. But something similar was bound to happen, and if you had asked us during the exercise in New York: “Are we ready for a global health emergency?”, we would have said “no.” The simulation and our previous work had shown there was a lot more to be done to enable public-private cooperation in the face of such a threat. But there is a silver lining: it’s not too late to apply the lessons we learned in the fall. What can we do to mobilize a better global response?

First, we must look beyond the immediate health impact of the COVID-19 virus and come up with a systemic response.

Continues …