Deborah Haynes – Sky New Jan 8, 2020
Screen grab of Iranian missiles launched at two US bases in Iraq. Click to enlarge
Anyone who thinks they can predict what will happen next in this crisis between the US and Iran is probably fooling themselves.
With the risk of them sliding into a direct war more acute now than at any time in the last four decades, the opposing sides are respectively headed by a uniquely unpredictable US president and a regime in Tehran that’s reeling from the assassination of its top general.
Logic would dictate that if the Iranian missile strikes against US and coalition bases in Iraq overnight impacted without killing any US military personnel, President Donald Trump could absorb the attack without striking back militarily.
After all, he did order the killing of Major General Qassem Soleimani – whose importance to Iran is only second to that of the supreme leader – and most have known that would come at a price.
But the US commander-in-chief had vowed to avenge the targeting of any American assets if Iran decided to retaliate and he could feel that a failure now to respond with force would be seen as weakness, not calculated restraint.
The Iranians appear to be signalling over Twitter – the apparent communication channel of choice for these two nations – that they hope he seeks the route of de-escalation.
Their foreign minister, Javad Zarif, wrote: “Iran took & concluded proportionate measures in self-defense under Article 51 of UN Charter targeting base from which cowardly armed attack (sic) against our citizens & senior officials were launched.
“We do not seek escalation or war, but will defend ourselves against any aggression.”
Perhaps Mr Trump can be convinced to resist the urge to strike back if the fallout from the Iranian action is limited.
The fact that there has not been an immediate retaliation indicates officials are waiting to assess exactly what happened to their forces in Iraq and weighing up the next steps before taking any public action.
The US president has so far only made a fairly breezy comment on Twitter given the gravity of the situation and its potential consequences.
He wrote: “All is well! Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq. Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good!
“We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world, by far! I will be making a statement [on Wednesday] morning.”
The tone contrasted starkly with what he wrote on Twitter previously when he warned Tehran against retaliation following the death of Maj Gen Soleimani. At that point, he said his forces had identified 52 targets – one for each of the 52 hostages taken by Iran in 1979. They include “some at a very high level & important to Iran & the Iranian culture”.
The president then backtracked, reluctantly, on the threat to target cultural sites – which would constitute a war crime.
Maybe he will backtrack again on his wider threat to retaliate.
Doubtless he will be under pressure from hawks within his administration – perhaps even including his Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who has been the frontman within the administration in facing the media to explain Maj Gen Soleimani’s assassination – as well as among his support base to avenge the missile strikes.
But there are some very senior, experienced military and security officials who will also be giving advice, including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mike Milley, and the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Gina Haspel.
They know the reason. They understand the risks.
Unfortunately at this time of crisis, there are many gaps of personnel in top administration jobs who should be in play as well.
This includes no director of national intelligence, no deputy director, no Homeland Security secretary, no deputy secretary, no assistant secretary of defence for international security affairs and no deputy assistant secretary of defence for Middle East affairs, as noted by journalists Garrett Graff and Lara Seligman.
It is hard to argue that this will not be impacting on the US capacity to deal with such a critical foreign policy standoff.
Iran has made it as clear as Mr Trump did that if the US strikes back in response to the missile attacks then it will unleash more violence, not just against US targets in the region but also bringing in US allies that sit within range of Iranian missiles.
This includes the Gulf states and Israel – none of them will be relishing such a prospect.
They will be continuing to call for de-escalation.
Britain and its European allies also want both sides to walk back from the brink.
The fact that no British military personnel were killed or injured in the Iranian strikes – they too were at the targeted bases – will help the UK stick to its position of urging restraint.
Many analysts will be surprised that Iran chose to target US positions directly.
They had predicted the regime would play to its strengths – using proxy forces, cyber attacks and other less conventional forms of attack – to make life difficult for the Americans and make it hard for Mr Trump to justify lobbing missiles back on Iran.
Instead the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, went for the direct strike.
It is a big gamble that may yet be the next step towards war.
I don’t know if Iran has made a good move. They tried to keep the fight inside the war theater Iraq which was a good thing. Also they said they are even so don’t expect any Iranian (MOSSAD, actually – “By Way of Deception You Shalt Do War”) terrorist attacks inside the US.
The problem is Iran gave the excuse Orange Mad and its clique needed. Eighty body bags, real or phony, will be enough to escalate this war to accomplish the objectives of project Greater IsraHell. Chaos and balkanization of IsraHell’s enemies continues.
Amerika’s war propaganda machine will convince Americans to fight and die for a “greater good.” Six B-52s already dispatched to Diego Garcia air base. B-52s mean only one thing, carpet bombing. The vampires are wearing napkins right now.
President Chump, the guy who started WWIII. The Jews are working in his biography already, a great man President Chump was, for the Jews.
P.S. If you are not preparing yourself, in your micro world, for WWIII you are a fool.
January 8, 2020, 6:00 a.m. high-level meeting in the White House
Trump: Well Mike, do we have a go?
Pompeo: Yes. Everything is set. The B52’s are on the way and F35’s will take out missile sites before they arrive.
Trump: That’s great, but what I want to know is if everyone on side, like the media, Johnson in England, Trudeau in Canada, the Pope, you know…. We can’t just go and bomb the shit out of the place and not have support….
Pompeo: Well Don, you know about the media, if you do anything for Israel they will be totally onside, and especially anything to destroy Iran. The election is in the bag if you do this.
Trump: Well, it would be great to have some favourable coverage from the media bastards for a change, but how what of the people? How are they going to react?
Pompeo: Come on, You know the people, they can’t wait for the next lie ….
Trump, Esper, McConnell, Kushner, others: (laughter) Ha, ha, ha …
Trump: You are right about that …
(more laughter)
Pompeo: Johnson is 100% and fully understands what both of our benefactors want and how with their money, the media, and our election people swung the election for him for this very reason.
Kushner: Yes, don’t worry everything is under control. One of his first trips will be to Israel.
Pompeo: Trudeau? You know he hates you Don, but on foreign policy he has the same strings on him as Johnson. He will dance to any tune you want …
(more laugher)
Trump: Russia?
Pompeo: They will stay out of it and won’t directly help Iran. They will protest but are contained.
Trump: Then I guess it’s a go.
(loud clapping and applause)
B52s? Iran has the missiles to shoot these planes down. We can expect a suicide mission on a US carrier and strikes against Israel. Bibi controls Trump. I think the US is going to get a very bloody nose. I’m not saying Iran has a chance, but they can seriously embarrass the US. Clearly, all info from the two attacked bases is propaganda. Could be that many have died, hence the delay. For all we know, the US may never disclose how many died. It could also be possible that Iran preciely missed vital US assets but in such away as to suggest to the Americans that had they wanted to, all targets could have been direct hits. Iran has GPS targetting. Keep in mind that Iran has at least two Soviet era nukes… big and very dirty. I had an Iranian friend in London and he was very clear. His brother was in the Iranian military at the time and he said the policy was to use these nukes before military systems became degraded. The CIA, Mossad and MI6 are fully aware these nukes exist.
Fact, the US is bust, they’ve restarted QE at greater levels that QE3. The US and UK are running out of time. Bankrupts do very stupid things and while Russia, China and Iran have played for time knowing the US is on its last legs, sometimes there is nothing left to do but fight. Some say Trump doesn’t do strategy, I think this is rubbish. Take the stoty that Trump was given a range of options, like JFK in the Simpsons movie and Trump picked the most extream option… why was that option even there??? Fact, Trump is not in control and the US deep state does everything for a reason. They want WW3.
As Iran’s Supreme Leader said today this is not the entire revenge, it is just a warm up! up! Supreme Leader defined the revenge and it is nothing less than total removal of US forces from Iraq and Syria, so until then that red flag above Jamkaran Mosque will remain. Iraq was informed of this attack. It is significant for the following reasons:
– This is the first time after WW2 that a US base is directly attacked like this.
– This US base (Lion’s Eye) is the most advanced US base in Iraq and the hardest for Iran to hit, it has the biggest air-field, the potential capacity to host 15000 soldiers, largest helicopter and drone base, has the best air-defense, radar and surveillance systems. This is the base Trump was referring to when he said Iraqis have to pay for it if we are to leave, and US had been amassing equipment there for the last weeks.
– Other coalition forces from other countries were are also stationed in the Lion’s Eye base, however those parts were not hit!
– There is another US base that is bigger however that hosts more forces from other countries and also mainly has ground equipment like Tanks and APCs.
– This base (Lion’s Eye) conducted Qasem Suleimani’s assassination operation.
– The base was on full alert and readiness when attacked.
– There are other US bases closer to Iran’s border, however this one was attacked, Iranian missiles moved from above the other US bases and hit this one.
– 22 missiles were fired, apparently 16 of them were targeted at this base, the rest hit another base in Irbil north of Iraq, where the Kurds are, apparently CIA has been there brewing up something.
– 2 of the missiles were of Qiam type that has 800 KM range, the rest were of Fateh-313 that has 500 KM range. It is important to note that all missiles were equipped with Iran’s latest electronic-warfare modules. Qiam missiles had special cluster warheads. These were used to destroy many Helicopter and Drones on the field. The Fateh-313 missiles are extremely fast and agile with 5-10 meters accuracy, considering the destructive radius of these missiles, such accuracy can be considered pin-point. The warhead is separated much earlier from the missile and thus it is very hard to counter.
– US air-defense and radar “completely” fails.
– The damage was massive, many drones, helicopters, bunkers, equipment and other important points of the base has been destroyed. In the best case scenario for Trump, at least 80 killed and 200 wounded.
And this is still not the revenge… this is to deter US from responding and escalating, showing that Iran can hit the hardest US base. Please note that after Pearl Harbor, this is the first significant direct attack on a US base, later US assassinated Japanese General Yamamoto in an island and Japan did not respond, nuclear attacks followed later. So if we are to learn from history, Iran had to respond.
Now US understands that Iran’s missiles are not Photoshoped and their air-defense can’t hinder them in any way. Should US retaliate, there will be more massive missile attack, US can cause serious damage to Iran but at what cost and for what? As I said even if US nuke Iran, Iran won’t be stopped. Just see the funerals of Qasem Suleimani and the will of the people.
I see news of Iraqi forces vowing to attack US forces in revenge for Abu Mahdi Al Mohandes separately and independently. So this may happen soon as well.
This comment may have been duplicated due to bad proxy connection.
A few more comments on Iran’s missiles:
1- Iran’s missiles that separate their warhead early, leave their main body that drops to the ground, some may think these have failed. Similar to Iran’s missile attack on Daesh in Deir Alzour. Some people saw these remains and thought missiles had failed.
2- Iran’s missiles have fail-safe ability, if for any reason the main circuit detect any problems with delivery, it self-destructs. The reason is, Iran can’t afford missing a missile and killing civilians in an accident. Already the propaganda machine is on rampage, imagine if they had something real to report!
3- Iran’s missile tech is the most advanced tech of Iran. Supreme Leader has asked for great precision, range, destructive power and control of the missiles. Iran has many diverse types of missiles.
4- These missiles used in the attack on Lion’s Eye base, were equipped with the latest electronic-warfare modules.
@مقداد وفائی
Can you please provide some reference for your claims on the drones, helicopters and other targets?
Is this pure speculation based on the missile capabilities or are you going from any confirmed source?
I am sure we will come to find out eventually, be it from the US, Iran/Iraq or Russia/China obeserving the strikes via satellite or on the ground.
Just rather curious as to where you got the information so early on.
NBTT when dealing with psychopaths, they only understand violence and if their lives are on the line, then they will back down.
I too was surprised Iran chose to directly strike the US base, but at the same time I am glad that was the option.
This will do just as intended, show what can and will happen to all Israeli air bases in the region should they continue to push the Us to strike Iran.
Afterall, twice now Patriot systems have failed to defend their areas.
Saudi Arabia and now Iraq! (in the most heavily defended US base in the world no less)
@ مقداد وفائی
Thnx for your effort.
This is what our sources tell us, obviously US government and Trump will deny all of this, and you guys can believe what you will. They took many wounded to a hospital in Israel and it was reported by a journalist whose twitter was mysteriously taken down, just dig it.
Amazingly even RT was being on the same side, saying Iran’s move was just to save face! The exact opposite is true.
The solid fact is Trump is backing down and not going to respond militarily whatever the excuse maybe. Another important thing is that some are saying Iran had informed US prior to the attack. These are all the stuff that you can choose to believe or not. As an Iranian I am telling you what I have stated is nothing but the truth. Whether you believe me or the other side is up to you.
One of the reasons they dared to assassinate Qaasem Suleimnani was the stupid weak and liberal government of president Rohani currently in power constantly looking for negotiations. You do not understand but he is a traitor and will stand trial. Liberals have lost all popularity in Iran. Only time will clear things.
Any psychologist and one who can read body language can tell trump was under heavy pressure and nervous when speaking.
I say it again, one has to come to terms with reality: Either Iran is weak and thus not a threat and should have been attacked long ago, or Iran is strong and scary thus deterring US and its allies from directly attacking.
There are rumors Trump has sent ISIS the green light and message of support, it is possible ISIS is going to be reactivated now that Qasem Suleimani is killed. Either ISIS or US has to be there for Israel to survive and they know it.