Moon of Alabama – Dec 18, 2019
The Turkish President Erdogan continues to create enemies for Turkey.
After waging a war on Syria, he has managed to piss off the EU by pushing refugees towards it. He has displeased NATO and the U.S. by installing Russian air defenses. Most Arab countries at the Persian Gulf hate him for his support for Qatar.
Erdogan has allied himself with the Government of National Accord (GNA) that rules in Tripoli, Libya. He will now have to take on several additional countries which support the GNA’s opponent.
After the NATO war destroyed Africa’s richest country Libya is still split.
Most of the east and the south and most of the oil of the country is ruled by General Khalifa Haftar, a former CIA asset. Haftar has support from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Russia. A U.S. delegation recently visited him. Nine month ago he started a campaign to eliminate the Muslim Brotherhood controlled GNA around Tripoli and Misrata.
The campaign got stuck even as each side continued to put more and better material onto the ground and into the air. Pilots flying for Haftar are allegedly from the UAE and Egypt. The GNA flies Turkish drones which are likely controlled by Turkish pilots. There are also rumors that Russian mercenaries are involved in support of Haftar.
Both sides lack well trained ground troops in sufficient numbers. At the end of November Erdogan offered a rather curious agreement to the GNA. In exchange for troops from Turkey the GNA would have to agree to a common maritime border between Libya and Turkey.
Fayez al-Sarraj, the Chairman of the Presidential Council of Libya and prime minister of the GNA, agreed. That resulted in this curious map.