Introduction – Nov 25, 2019

Dancing in Riyadh. Trump with Saudi leaders. Click to enlarge

Trump is not a military man; he’s a wheeler-dealer businessman. Nonetheless, we DO NOT think that he is planning to commit U.S. troops to a conflict with Iran as the following article suggests.

Despite the recent build-up of U.S. forces in neighbouring Saudi Arabia, there is one overriding reason why Trump will not commit U.S. forces to such a conflict. To do so would be utter madness if he wants to secure a second term of office in November 2020. Military conflict with Iran would effectively torpedo any chance he has of securing that.

Nonetheless, that doesn’t mean that Trump won’t be open to using alternative means to bring regime change to Tehran. It has been a long-standing U.S. foreign policy objective through successive administrations and Trump is not about to abandon it. In fact, he’s already had some measure of success using economic sanction to stir grass roots discontent in Iran.

However, there is an alternative course of action that we strongly suspect Trump is pursuing. Psychic Craig Hamilton Parker has suggested this and it makes perfect sense in that it would bring regime change to Tehran, without any direct U.S. participation in the conflict that might ensue.

Making it even more appealing to Trump’s wheeler-dealer mentality, it would also secure lucrative sales for U.S. arms manufacturers. The big question is: would it work?

According to Hamilton Parker, an implicit agreement has been reached between the Saudis and Trump that after Trump secures a second term in Nov 2020 and armed with U.S. weapons and intelligence, the Saudis will then embark on a war with Iran in 2021.

If, and that’s a very big IF, the Saudis succeed it will be a massive double-bonus for Trump. Not only would it bring regime change to Tehran, a Saudi victory would also bring huge sales for U.S. arms manufactures as the Saudis sought to replace weapons and ordnance used in the war.

However, it cannot be emphasised enough that this all rests on a successful military outcome for the Saudis and we are not so sure they are up to it. Sure, on paper they look impressive enough, and the U.S. and Israel will happily supply them with intelligence and logistical support in any war with Iran.

Nonetheless, the Saudis have proved themselves to be utterly incompetent against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. A rag-tag lightly armed militia, the Houthis have run circles round their expensively armed and equipped Saudi opponents and there’s no reason to think that the Saudis would do any better against Iran.

In fact, given the growing sophistication of Iran’s weapons the Saudis could be setting themselves up for a military debacle. Trump is oblivious to this because, apart from not being a military man, we suspect that he’s been blinded to the possibility of a Saudi defeat by the prospect of armaments sales and a third-party solution to America’s longstanding problems with Iran.

While the Saudis seem to think that it’s only a matter of how much they spend that will determine the outcome of conflict with Iran. Given such prevailing views we would suggest that both Trump and the Saudis could be in for a very rude awakening in 2021. Ed.

Trump Must Understand a War With Iran Would Be Hell

Doug Bandow – National Interest Nov 25, 2019

F-22. Click to enlarge

Sixteen years ago, the George W. Bush administration manipulated intelligence to scare the public into backing an aggressive war against Iraq. The smoking gun mushroom clouds that National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice warned against didn’t exist, but the invasion long desired by neoconservatives and other hawks proceeded. Liberated Iraqis rejected U.S. plans to create an American puppet state on the Euphrates and the aftermath turned into a humanitarian and geopolitical catastrophe which continues to roil the Middle East.

Thousands of dead Americans, tens of thousands of wounded and maimed U.S. personnel, hundreds of thousands of dead Iraqis, and millions of Iraqis displaced. There was the sectarian conflict, destruction of the historic Christian community, the creation of Al Qaeda in Iraq—which morphed into the far deadlier Islamic State—and the enhanced influence of Iran. The prime question was how could so many supposedly smart people be so stupid?

Now the Trump administration appears to be following the same well-worn path. The president has fixated on Iran, tearing up the nuclear accord with Tehran and declaring economic war on it—as well as anyone dealing with Iran. He is pushing America toward war even as he insists that he wants peace. How stupid does he believe we are?

Naturally, the administration blames Iran for not accepting its supposedly generous offer to talk. However, Tehran has no reason to believe that Washington is serious. One doesn’t have to be a hardline Shiite ayatollah to see little point in negotiating with a president seemingly determined on surrender or war—and who can’t be counted on to keep any agreement he makes.

Continues …