{"id":93350,"date":"2014-03-22T07:50:35","date_gmt":"2014-03-22T07:50:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=93350"},"modified":"2014-03-27T07:12:43","modified_gmt":"2014-03-27T07:12:43","slug":"what-we-learned-in-crimea","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=93350","title":{"rendered":"What we learned in Crimea"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal<\/w:View> <w:Zoom>0<\/w:Zoom> <w:DoNotOptimizeForBrowser \/> <\/w:WordDocument> <\/xml><![endif]--><\/p>\n<h1 class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: center;\">David Ignatius &#8212; Washington Post March 19, 2014<\/h1>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_91727\" style=\"width: 310px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/Russian-helicopters-over-Crimea.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-91727\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-91727\" title=\"Russian helicopters over Crimea\" src=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/Russian-helicopters-over-Crimea-300x185.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"185\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-91727\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Russian military helicopters flying into Crimea on Friday afternoon, Feb 28, 2014. Click to enlarge<\/p><\/div>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">From the photographs we\u2019ve seen of the Russian special operations, or Spetsnaz, troops that intervened in Crimea, several things are obvious: They are secretive, moving without insignia and often covering their faces; they\u2019re disciplined and they\u2019re decisive.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">The diplomatic response to the Russian intervention is continuing. But Pentagon officials are beginning to assess the military \u201clessons learned.\u201d The bottom line is that Russia\u2019s move into Crimea was a study in the speedy deployment of special operations forces to achieve a limited objective<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">\u201cWhat has been most striking to me so far has been the apparent levels of discipline, training and cooperation among the Russian forces,\u201d noted Paul Saunders, executive director of the Center for the National Interest, in an <a href=\"http:\/\/warontherocks.com\/2014\/03\/five-questions-with-paul-saunders-on-the-implications-of-crimea\/\"><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><strong>interview this week with the military blog War on the <\/strong><\/span><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><strong>Rocks<\/strong><\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">The Russians deployed quickly in the hours surrounding reports of their initial movement on Feb. 26. Two days later, when President Obama warned that there would be \u201ccosts\u201d for invading Crimea, the Russian forces were already in place and the intervention was nearly a fait accompli.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">The Russians are thought to have had roughly 15,000 troops in Crimea when the crisis began, and quickly added about another 5,000, mostly special operations troops. The Russians are allowed up to 25,000 military personnel in Crimea under their 30-year lease of the Black Sea naval base at Sevastopol.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">Military analysts note some interesting characteristics of the Russian deployment: President Vladimir Putin, a former KGB lieutenant colonel, chose something closer to a paramilitary \u201ccovert action\u201d than a normal military attack. Because the troops didn\u2019t have Russian insignia, there was a thin veil of deniability, which the Russians exploited.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">At a news conference March 4, Putin denied that Russian troops had invaded, despite photographic evidence to the contrary. \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2014\/03\/17\/opinion\/ghitis-crimea-vote\/\"><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><strong>You can go to a store and buy a <\/strong><\/span><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><strong>uniform<\/strong><\/span><\/a>,\u201d insisted Putin. This \u201cdeniability\u201d was maintained by Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, who said March 5 it was \u201c<a href=\"http:\/\/thelede.blogs.nytimes.com\/2014\/03\/05\/russias-defense-minister-calls-evidence-of-troop-presence-in-crimea-complete-nonsense\/\"><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><strong>complete<span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"> <\/span><\/strong><\/span><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><strong>nonsense<\/strong><\/span><\/a>\u201d that Russian troops had invaded Crimea and that he had \u201cno idea\u201d how Russian military vehicles had gotten there.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">These bland denials of reality were useful in several ways: They maintained a fig leaf of legitimacy for an illegal intervention; they allowed Russia a chance (not yet taken) to de-escalate an operation that hadn\u2019t officially been acknowledged; and they distanced Putin in case things went badly and Ukrainians were killed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">Putin also showed a notable willingness to take risks. So far, there has been <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/news\/world\/wp\/2014\/03\/18\/ukrainian-serviceman-reportedly-shot-in-crimea\/?hpid=z2\"><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><strong>almost no bloodshed between Russians and <\/strong><\/span><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><strong>Ukrainians<\/strong><\/span><\/a>, but Putin couldn\u2019t have known this when he began. That\u2019s why the precision and discipline of Russian forces were crucial. Their professionalism reduced the risk of an incident that could have spiraled out of control.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">Finally, Putin prepared a rationale for his intervention \u2014 along with the<span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/mr-putin-might-actually-believe-his-own-ukraine-propaganda\/2014\/03\/04\/2e161d98-a3c3-11e3-84d4-e59b1709222c_story.html\"><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><strong>attendant <\/strong><\/span><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><strong>propaganda<\/strong><\/span><\/a>. He insisted he was acting to protect Russian citizens and Russian speakers in Crimea. His troops were welcomed by a generally supportive Crimean population, and his action was lauded back home. This model suggests that Putin might be prepared to move, similarly, to protect Russians in neighboring countries, such as eastern Ukraine or<span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-europe-26627236\"><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><strong>the Transnistria region of <\/strong><\/span><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><strong>Moldova<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">Analysts think Putin would be less likely to move against neighboring states, such as Lithuania and Latvia, that have significant Russian-speaking populations but that are NATO members. Such operations would require far more force \u2014 and would test NATO\u2019s \u201cArticle\u20095\u201d commitment to U.S.-led mutual defense, a risk that is probably greater than Putin is willing to tolerate.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">The well-organized Crimea operation also suggests improvement in the quality and training of the Russian military. Their troops had operated with far less precision a decade ago in <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/wp-srv\/inatl\/longterm\/russiagov\/stories\/chechnya101299.htm\"><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><strong>Chech<\/strong><\/span><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><strong>nya<\/strong><\/span><\/a> and in the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/wp-dyn\/content\/discussion\/2008\/08\/11\/DI2008081101674.html\"><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><strong>2008 invasion of <\/strong><\/span><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><strong>Georgia<\/strong><\/span><\/a> . A botched attempt to free 850 hostages in a <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/wp-dyn\/content\/article\/2006\/10\/08\/AR2006100800919.html\"><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><strong>Moscow theater in 2002 resulted in the<\/strong><\/span> <span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><strong>deaths of 130 of the captives<\/strong><\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">Russia evidently has been getting results for increased spending on its military: The<span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.iiss.org\/en\/publications\/military%20balance\/issues\/the-military-balance-2012-77da\/mb12-05-russia-efff\"><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><strong>2012 edition of an annual <\/strong><\/span><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><strong>survey<\/strong><\/span><\/a> by the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.iiss.org\/en\/publications\/military-s-balance\"><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><strong>International Institute for<\/strong><\/span> <span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><strong>Strategic Studies<\/strong><\/span><\/a><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\"><strong> <\/strong><\/span>estimated that Russia would spend 3.78 percent of its GDP on defense in 2013, by far the highest amount in more than a decade. Aging or incompetent Russian officers have been purged as part of a modernization campaign.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">This Russian army, in short, is not the one that proved so feeble in Afghanistan. It is well-trained and stealthy and effectively uses a \u201csmall footprint.\u201d And Putin clearly wasn\u2019t deterred by NATO military moves that signaled a commitment to protect member states \u2014 but didn\u2019t convey a willingness to check Russian black operations in a friendly, neighboring region.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/opinions\/david-ignatius-russias-military-delivers-a-striking-lesson-in-crimea\/2014\/03\/18\/c1273044-aed7-11e3-9627-c65021d6d572_story.html\">Source <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Evidently benefiting from increased spending, modernisation and reform in its ranks: the Russian army of today bears little resemblance to the one that fought in Afghanistan. David Ignatius explains<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39262,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61,91],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-93350","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-Commentary","category-russia"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93350","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/39262"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=93350"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93350\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":93808,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/93350\/revisions\/93808"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=93350"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=93350"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=93350"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}