{"id":73050,"date":"2013-06-12T07:06:45","date_gmt":"2013-06-12T07:06:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=73050"},"modified":"2013-06-15T07:01:31","modified_gmt":"2013-06-15T07:01:31","slug":"iran-emerging-as-victor-in-syrian-conflict","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=73050","title":{"rendered":"Iran emerging as victor in Syrian conflict"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml> <w:WordDocument> <w:View>Normal<\/w:View> <w:Zoom>0<\/w:Zoom> <w:DoNotOptimizeForBrowser \/> <\/w:WordDocument> <\/xml><![endif]--><\/p>\n<h1 class=\"MsoNormal\" style=\"text-align: center;\">Liz Sly &#8212; Washington Post June 12, 2013<\/h1>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Assad-Ahmadinejad-and-Nasrallah.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-medium wp-image-73054\" title=\"Assad, Ahmadinejad and Hezbollah leader Nasrallah. Click to enlarge\" src=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Assad-Ahmadinejad-and-Nasrallah-300x191.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"191\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Assad-Ahmadinejad-and-Nasrallah-300x191.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Assad-Ahmadinejad-and-Nasrallah.jpg 780w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>As fighters with Lebanon\u2019s Hezbollah movement wage the battles that are helping Syria\u2019s regime survive, their chief sponsor, Iran, is emerging as the biggest victor in the wider regional struggle for influence that the Syrian conflict has become.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">With President Obama set to host a White House meeting of top national security aides on Wednesday to <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/national-security\/syrias-rebel-leadership-makes-new-pleas-to-washington\/2013\/06\/10\/d743ebf0-d201-11e2-8cbe-1bcbee06f8f8_story.html\">reassess options<\/a> in light of recent setbacks for the rebels seeking to oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the long-term outcome of the war remains far from assured, analysts and military experts say.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">But after the Assad regime\u2019s capture of <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/middle_east\/report-lebanese-militants-help-syrian-forces-capture-border-town\/2013\/06\/05\/fe51f0b0-cdbb-11e2-8845-d970ccb04497_story.html\">the small but strategic town of Qusair last week \u2014 <\/a>a battle in which the Iranian-backed Shiite militia played a pivotal role \u2014 Iran\u2019s supporters and foes alike are mulling a new reality: that the regional balance of power appears to be tilting in favor of Tehran, with potentially profound implications for a Middle East still grappling with the upheaval wrought by the Arab Spring revolts.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">\u201cThis is an Iranian fight. It is no longer a Syrian one,\u201d said Mustafa Alani, director of security and defense at the Dubai-based Gulf Research Council. \u201cThe issue is hegemony in the region.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">The ramifications extend far beyond the borders of Syria, whose location at the heart of the Middle East puts it astride most of the region\u2019s fault lines, from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to the disputes left over from the U.S. occupation of Iraq, from the perennial sectarian tensions in Lebanon to Turkey\u2019s aspirations to restore its Ottoman-era reach into the Arab world.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">An Iran emboldened by the unchecked exertion of its influence in Syria would also be emboldened in other arenas, Alani said, including the negotiations over its nuclear program, as well as its ambitions in Iraq, Lebanon and beyond.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">\u201cIf Iran wins this conflict and the Syrian regime survives, Iran\u2019s interventionist policy will become wider and its credibility will be enhanced,\u201d he added.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">From Iran\u2019s point of view, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/assad-forces-gaining-ground-in-syria\/2013\/05\/11\/79147c34-b99c-11e2-b568-6917f6ac6d9d_story.html\">sustaining Assad\u2019s regime<\/a> also affirms Iran\u2019s control over a corridor of influence stretching from Tehran through Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut to Maroun al-Ras, a hilltop town on Lebanon\u2019s southern border that offers a commanding view of northern Israel, according to Mohammad Obaid, a Lebanese political analyst with close ties to Hezbollah.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">Iran has sought to minimize its visible involvement in Syria so as not to exacerbate sectarian tensions that have been inflamed by a conflict pitting an overwhelmingly Sunni opposition against a regime dominated by Assad\u2019s minority Shiite-affiliated sect, Obaid said.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">Iran has provided advice, money and arms to Assad\u2019s regime, but the manpower needed to bolster his forces, flagging after two years of trying to contain the revolt, has come from Hezbollah, which was founded in the 1980s with help from Iran\u2019s Revolutionary Guard Corps and has become Lebanon\u2019s leading military and political force.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">\u201cHezbollah is part of the Iranian strategy,\u201d Obaid said. \u201cThis counts as a victory for the group of Iran, Syria, Iraq and Hezbollah against the group backed by the United States.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>\u2018Iran walked the walk\u2019<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">Supporters of the Syrian opposition contrast the hesitancy of the U.S. administration in offering arms to the outgunned, poorly trained and deeply divided rebels with the commitment that Iran has shown to its Damascus ally.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">The U.S. goal was to pressure Assad into making concessions at the negotiating table, without delivering a resounding military victory to the rebels that might have brought Islamists to power in Damascus, said Amr al-Azm, a history professor at Shawnee State University in Ohio who is Syrian and is active in the opposition. Instead, a proposed peace conference in Geneva seems likely to be held on Assad\u2019s terms, should it go ahead.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">\u201cPolitically we\u2019re screwed, and militarily we\u2019re taking a pounding,\u201d Azm said. \u201cAmerica talked the talk while Iran walked the walk.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">This would not be the first time that Iran has outmaneuvered the United States since the Iranian revolution brought Shiite clerics to power in Tehran in 1979. But the assertion of Shiite power in Syria rankles Sunnis across the region, compounding the dangers that <a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/grid\/world\/syria\/\">the Syrian conflict<\/a> could provoke a wider and even bloodier war than the one currently underway, which is estimated to have killed at least 80,000 people.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">Escalating violence in Iraq and growing tensions in Lebanon, whose conflicts are inextricably intertwined with the increasingly sectarian nature of the war in Syria, underscore the risk that centuries-old religious rivalries between Sunnis and Shiites will be aggravated by Iran\u2019s role. The leading religious authority in Saudi Arabia and al-Qaeda chief Ayman al-Zawahiri have in the past week called on Sunnis to volunteer to fight in Syria, marking a potentially dangerous convergence that could herald an intensified influx of Sunni jihadis.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Saudi Arabia\u2019s role<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">Saudi Arabia, the leading Sunni power in the region and Washington\u2019s closest Arab ally, is unlikely to tolerate an ascendant Iran even if the United States chooses to remain aloof, said Jamal Khashoggi, director of the al-Arab television channel.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">\u201cIt is a serious blow in the face of Saudi Arabia, and I don\u2019t think the Saudis will accept it. They will do something, whether on their own or with America,\u201d he said. \u201cSyria is the heart of the Arab world, and for it to be officially conquered by the Iranians is unacceptable.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">One way in which Saudi Arabia could influence the outcome is by facilitating unchecked supplies of arms to the rebels, analysts say. Although the umbrella Free Syrian Army has received small quantities of weaponry from Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar over the past year, the United States has sought to control the flow, vetting the recipients and restricting the caliber of the weapons provided.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">After videos surfaced in March of Islamist groups wielding antitank weapons funneled across the Jordanian border by Saudi Arabia, the United States imposed a freeze on all further deliveries, putting the rebels at a disadvantage just as Iran, through Hezbollah, was gearing up to rejuvenate the Assad regime\u2019s army with reinforcements, according to rebel leaders.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>A symbolic battle<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">Military analysts caution against overestimating the impact of the rebel defeat in Qusair on what is likely to be a long and unpredictable war. The obscure western town abutting Hezbollah-controlled territory in Lebanon almost certainly offered an easier conquest than other rebel strongholds, such as the city of Aleppo, where the regime is touting an imminent offensive.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">The rebels are continuing to press attacks in the northern, eastern and southern peripheries of the country even as the government appears to be tightening its grip on the central provinces of Damascus and Homs, raising the specter that the country will be partitioned into enclaves backed by rival Sunni and Shiite regional powers. A suicide bombing in Damascus on Tuesday highlighted the likelihood that the rebels will sustain an insurgency similar to the one that persists in Iraq even if they are defeated militarily.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">The chief significance of the battle for Qusair lay in the powerful symbolism of the role played by Hezbollah, which eliminated any doubt that the Syrian conflict has turned into a proxy war for regional influence, said Charles Lister, an analyst with IHS Jane\u2019s defense consultancy in London.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">\u201cExternal actors are becoming increasingly decisive and pivotal in terms of where the conflict is going,\u201d he said. And if the United States increased its support for the rebels, Assad\u2019s allies would be likely to boost theirs, he added.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\"> <\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ccffff;\">\u201cThe conflict has regionalized, and, unfortunately, that gives it the potential to drag on longer,\u201d he said. \u201cAs long as one side increases its assistance, the other will see the need to do so, too.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"MsoNormal\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/middle_east\/iran-emerging-as-victor-in-syrian-conflict\/2013\/06\/11\/345d92b2-d2c2-11e2-8cbe-1bcbee06f8f8_print.html\">Source <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>With President Obama set to host a meeting of national security aides on Wednesday to assess the situation, the question is: how will the West respond?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39262,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[51,83],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-73050","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-Iran","category-syria"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73050","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/39262"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=73050"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73050\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":73285,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/73050\/revisions\/73285"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=73050"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=73050"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=73050"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}