The chance for a military strike to succeed in stopping Iran\u2019s race toward a nuclear weapon is becoming \u201cslimmer\u201d as Tehran continues to produce and disperse its enriched uranium and technology, according to Prof. Avner Cohen, a premier Israeli-American scholar on nuclear proliferation.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cI think we are moving to the point that the chance of success for doing something effective militarily is getting slimmer,\u201d Cohen warned in an interview with The Jerusalem Post<\/em>.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cThe fact that the Iranian nuclear program is further dispersed, that the time for Iran to reach a breakout capability gets shorter and that material can be moved quickly from site to site, would require a very dynamic intelligence capability to know where everything is,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n A professor and senior fellow at the Monterey Institute of International Studies in California, Cohen has written two groundbreaking books on Israel\u2019s nuclear program \u2013 Israel and the Bomb<\/em> and The Worst-Kept Secret: Israel\u2019s Bargain with the Bomb.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n Furthermore, according to Cohen, even if Israel had all of the intelligence it would still be impossible \u201cto know that you know everything important since you do not know what you do not know.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n Israel and other Western countries have expressed concern in the past that Iran might have additional undeclared nuclear facilities.<\/span><\/p>\n Cohen stressed that he did not currently advocate military action.<\/span><\/p>\n At the same time, he said that Iran\u2019s \u201csalami approach\u201d \u2013 dispersing its enriched uranium to a number of facilities, its general policy of making only small and invisible-like advances in its program, as well as its proven ability to enrich uranium to 20 percent levels \u2013 showed that \u201cIran is not only positioning itself on the bomb threshold, but it appears to gear itself to slowly crossing the threshold and becoming a nuclear weapon state.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n Iran recently announced that it is moving an advanced new centrifuge into the Fordo facility near Qom.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cSome Americans with access to intelligence believe that the window for the military option is closing and growing slimmer,\u201d he said.<\/span><\/p>\n Cohen said that Iran was working under a policy of nuclear ambiguity, similar to Israel\u2019s policy, under which Israel neither confirms nor denies its nuclear status. Like Israel, he said that Iran could eventually redefine what it means to be a nuclear state.<\/span><\/p>\n Last week, <\/span>the Post<\/em> reported<\/span><\/a> on concerns within Israel that Iran was adopting such a policy.<\/span><\/p>\n \u201cGiven the increasing quantities that Iran is enriching to 20%, they are increasingly shortening the time they need to reach the so-called breakout stage, which means that the warning time is getting shorter and shorter to the point that it becomes meaningless,\u201d he said. \u201cTheir opacity policy aims to blur and obscure the very issue of possession and non-possession of nuclear weapons.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n