{"id":332988,"date":"2026-11-12T06:16:04","date_gmt":"2026-11-12T06:16:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=332988"},"modified":"2026-11-12T06:41:17","modified_gmt":"2026-11-12T06:41:17","slug":"general-rezaeis-postcard-to-lakenheath","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=332988","title":{"rendered":"General Rezaei\u2019s Postcard to Lakenheath"},"content":{"rendered":"

Larry C. Johnson \u2013 SONAR21 Nov 11, 2026<\/strong><\/h1>\n

Washington has a well-worn method for handling Iranian threats: dismiss them as bluster, then act surprised when the missiles show up. We ran that play in March. Tehran had insisted for twenty years that its missiles stopped at 2,000 kilometers, and the Pentagon was happy to believe it. Then two Iranian ballistic missiles went screaming toward Diego Garcia, about 3,900 kilometers from Iran\u2019s southern coast. Pete Hegseth later told the Senate he\u2019d seen a 4,000-kilometer missile fired at the base. Oops.<\/p>\n

On Wednesday, Mohsen Rezaei sent another postcard. If American planes take off from bases in Europe to bomb Iran, he said, Iran will hit those bases. He promised strikes on \u201cremote American bases\u201d that have \u201cnot yet been attacked,\u201d and on \u201csome islands, which they think our missiles can\u2019t reach.\u201d Then came the line that should keep a few wing commanders up at night: Iran\u2019s \u201cdefensive and offensive capabilities are much greater now than they were on the first day of the war.\u201d<\/p>\n

The reflex in Washington will be to roll its eyes. I\u2019d suggest a different exercise. Assume Rezaei is telling the truth. Assume he is quietly admitting that Iran now has a longer-reaching, more numerous missile force than the one it fired in March. Then look at where the US Air Force keeps its airplanes in Europe.<\/p>\n

This is not a backbencher talking<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Earlier this month the threats against Europe came from the usual chorus. A member of parliament\u2019s National Security Committee told Euronews that Iranian missiles would fly toward Europe if America used its bases in Italy and Germany. Kayhan, the paper that speaks for the Supreme Leader\u2019s office, said the target list now reaches \u201cthe heart of Europe.\u201d Tehran\u2019s Hamshahri reported that Iran had updated its target bank to include US support bases in Europe, under a doctrine of \u201cresponse without geographical limits.\u201d Western commentators filed all of this under noise.<\/p>\n

Rezaei is harder to file. He is the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, Iran\u2019s top security official, appointed in August by Mojtaba Khamenei. He commanded the Revolutionary Guards for sixteen years. When the man who coordinates Iran\u2019s war policy names your bases, the polite response is to stop calling it rhetoric.<\/p>\n

The threats also followed a reported US strike on an Iranian missile facility on Qeshm Island. Tehran is not issuing these warnings in a vacuum. It is telling Washington what the next round will cost.<\/p>\n

Get out a ruler<\/strong><\/h2>\n

I did the arithmetic so the Pentagon doesn\u2019t have to. Measured from Iran\u2019s western and northwestern border, every major US air base in Germany, and the main ones in the UK, sits inside the 4,000 kilometers Iran demonstrated in March.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Base<\/strong><\/td>\nWhat\u2019s there<\/strong><\/td>\nDistance from western Iran<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Incirlik, Turkey<\/td>\nUS tactical aircraft, munitions storage<\/td>\n810\u2013950 km<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Souda Bay, Crete<\/td>\nNaval air station, Sixth Fleet logistics<\/td>\n1,810\u20131,940 km<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sigonella, Sicily<\/td>\nNavy patrol aircraft, Global Hawk drones<\/td>\n2,530\u20132,760 km<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Aviano, Italy<\/td>\n31st Fighter Wing, F-16s<\/td>\n2,630\u20133,040 km<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ramstein, Germany<\/td>\nUSAFE headquarters, airlift hub for the region<\/td>\n3,040\u20133,310 km<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Spangdahlem, Germany<\/td>\n52nd Fighter Wing, F-16s<\/td>\n3,110\u20133,380 km<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lakenheath, UK<\/td>\n48th Fighter Wing, F-15Es and F-35s<\/td>\n3,570\u20133,840 km<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mildenhall, UK<\/td>\nTankers, special operations aircraft<\/td>\n3,570\u20133,840 km<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fairford, UK<\/td>\nRotating B-52, B-1 and B-2 bombers<\/td>\n3,720\u20133,990 km<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

Notice who sits at the bottom of that list. Fairford is where American bombers stage when Washington wants to hit a target in the Middle East without asking a Gulf monarch for permission. Mildenhall\u2019s tankers keep those bombers in the air. Those are exactly the \u201cplanes taking off\u201d Rezaei described.<\/p>\n

The islands are another matter. Cyprus and Crete are well within reach of Iran\u2019s ordinary 2,000-kilometer missiles. Sicily is just past it. If you\u2019re stationed on a Mediterranean island and were told Iran couldn\u2019t reach you, I\u2019d ask for a second opinion.<\/p>\n

Parked airplanes don\u2019t dodge<\/strong><\/h2>\n

In March, Iran fired two missiles at Diego Garcia. Two missiles make a demonstration, not a campaign. The comforting assumption in Washington is that Iran\u2019s intermediate-range force is a handful of prototypes. If Rezaei means what he says, that assumption has expired. \u201cMuch greater than the first day of the war\u201d means more of those missiles, longer legs, or both.<\/p>\n

Think about what that does to the bases on my list. The fighter wings at Lakenheath, Spangdahlem and Aviano at least have Cold War hardened shelters. The bombers at Fairford and the tankers at Mildenhall don\u2019t. They\u2019re too big for shelters and sit on open ramps, lined up like a parking lot at a county fair. A missile doesn\u2019t need surgical accuracy to wreck a row of KC-135s. It doesn\u2019t need to destroy a B-52 to ground the whole bomber force for a week. A cratered runway does that nicely.<\/p>\n

Then there is the defense. Here the irony is almost too rich. For fifteen years NATO told Moscow that the Aegis Ashore sites in Romania and Poland were built to stop Iranian missiles headed for Europe, and the Russians called it a fig leaf. We are about to find out whether the fig leaf works. Those sites carry a limited number of interceptors. Meanwhile Patriot batteries have been drawn down for Ukraine and the Gulf. A defense sized for a few rogue missiles is not a defense against a salvo.<\/p>\n

In fairness, missiles fired at maximum range carry lighter warheads, and Iran\u2019s accuracy at 3,500 kilometers is unproven. That is a real limitation. It is also the kind of limitation that sounded very reassuring right up until March 20.<\/p>\n

The message isn\u2019t for the Pentagon<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Read Rezaei\u2019s condition again: Iran strikes the bases \u201cif American planes take off from them and bomb Iran.\u201d That sentence is addressed to Rome, Berlin and London, not Washington.<\/p>\n

Some European capitals got the message before he sent it. Italy and Spain have already blocked the United States from using bases on their soil to attack Iran. London allowed it only for what it called \u201cspecific and limited\u201d purposes, mainly hitting Iranian missiles in depots or on launchers. Every one of those governments now has to ask whether a B-52 sortie out of Fairford is worth an Iranian warhead landing in Gloucestershire.<\/p>\n

That is the real weapon here. Iran doesn\u2019t have to hit anything in Europe. It only has to make European governments believe it can. Each capital that says no to Washington shrinks the US bomber campaign back to the Gulf bases, which Iran has already shown it can reach with ease.<\/p>\n

Take him at his word<\/strong><\/h2>\n

I spent a career watching Washington underestimate adversaries because the alternative was inconvenient. Iran said its missiles stopped at 2,000 kilometers, so we planned around 2,000 kilometers. Iran fired at Diego Garcia, and we decided two missiles were a fluke. Now Iran\u2019s top security official tells us he has more, and that he will use them on the bases our bombers fly from.<\/p>\n

Maybe he\u2019s bluffing. But if Rezaei is telling the truth, the airplanes at Lakenheath, Fairford, Ramstein and Aviano are no longer sitting in a rear area. They are sitting in a war zone, with no shelters for the big ones and a missile defense built for a threat that just got bigger. The prudent response would be to disperse the aircraft, stock up on interceptors and think hard before launching the next strike from European soil. The likely response is a Pentagon spokesman calling it rhetoric. We\u2019ll find out which one was right the same way we did in March.<\/p>\n

Pepe and I discuss the latest twist and turns in the JD Vance effort to negotiate an end to the war in Iran:<\/p>\n