{"id":325906,"date":"2026-04-10T07:25:20","date_gmt":"2026-04-10T07:25:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=325906"},"modified":"2026-04-12T07:11:26","modified_gmt":"2026-04-12T07:11:26","slug":"trumps-apocalypse-now-is-a-busted-flush-iran-has-proved-it-and-china-knows-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=325906","title":{"rendered":"Trump&#8217;s &#8216;Apocalypse Now&#8217; is a busted flush. Iran has proved it and China knows it"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>David Hearst \u2013 Middle East Eye April 9, 2026<\/strong><\/h1>\n<p>US President Donald Trump has just given the world a masterclass in the art of dealmaking. You <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/news\/democratic-lawmakers-call-remove-trump-after-civilization-will-die-threat-iran\">threaten armageddon<\/a> one minute, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/news\/anger-and-surprise-israel-after-us-iran-ceasefire\">cave in<\/a> to your enemy\u2019s main demands the next. This should go down in the textbooks of diplomacy.<\/p>\n<p>Iranians have good reason to come out into the streets and wave their flag today. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/countries\/iran\">Iran<\/a> is entering two weeks of negotiations, having notched up an impressive list of strategic wins.<\/p>\n<p>This is irrespective of how the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/news\/whats-irans-10-point-plan-end-us-israeli-war\">10 points<\/a> in the ceasefire plan are described. Trump called them a \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/truthsocial.com\/@realDonaldTrump\/posts\/116365796713313030\">workable basis<\/a>\u201d for talks. Iran and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/countries\/pakistan\">Pakistan<\/a> described them as guarantees for a ceasefire for two weeks only.<\/p>\n<p>Under these terms, Iran will <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/livecoverage\/iran-war-2026-trump-deadline-latest-news\/card\/what-s-in-iran-s-proposed-peace-plan-aXNBQUWI65SI0wCOtUVf\">keep enriching uranium<\/a>. If it has agreed to surrender its stock of highly enriched uranium, this is no great concession; it is what Iran <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/news\/2026\/2\/28\/peace-within-reach-as-iran-agrees-no-nuclear-material-stockpile-oman-fm\">offered in negotiations<\/a> mediated by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/countries\/oman\">Omani<\/a> Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi before the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/countries\/us\">US<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/countries\/israel\">Israel<\/a> attacked.<\/p>\n<p>Iran will continue to control the Strait of Hormuz, allowing a limited number of ships through during the period of the ceasefire. And it will continue to collect transit fees, along with Oman.<\/p>\n<p>Trump retweeted <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/FaytuksNetwork\/status\/2041663244998164882\/photo\/1\">the statement<\/a> of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in which he said that for two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be possible \u201cvia coordination with Iran\u2019s Armed Forces\u201d. This means that reopening the strait comes with Washington\u2019s recognition of Iran\u2019s authority over it.<\/p>\n<p>But that is not all. The price of peace with Iran is a binding pledge not to attack it again, the removal of all sanctions &#8211; both primary and secondary &#8211; and compensation for war damage.<\/p>\n<p>Of the 10 points, Iran\u2019s demand for the withdrawal of all US combat forces from the region is the most speculative. A withdrawal of US forces from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/countries\/iraq\">Iraq<\/a> has been demanded by successive prime ministers in Baghdad for the best part of a decade, and it still has yet to happen.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Netanyahu loses<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Whatever happens in Islamabad over the next two weeks, the fact that Trump pulled the rug out from under an intense campaign of US and Israeli air strikes is a major blow to the authority of the man who led him into this war, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.<\/p>\n<p>If his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/topics\/israel-genocide-gaza\">genocidal campaign in Gaza<\/a> spelt the end of Israel\u2019s moral authority over Europe, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/topics\/war-on-iran\">war on Iran<\/a> could have the same effect on Israel\u2019s monopoly over Washington\u2019s policymaking in the Middle East. No longer will issues be seen in DC exclusively through Israel\u2019s lens.<\/p>\n<p>Every one of the predictions that Netanyahu pitched to Trump for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/04\/07\/us\/politics\/trump-iran-war.html\">over an hour<\/a> in the situation room of the White House &#8211; a room rarely used for meetings with foreign leaders &#8211; on 11 February proved to be false.<\/p>\n<p>That Iran\u2019s ballistic missile programme could be destroyed in a few weeks: Iran continued to fire ballistic missiles into the sixth week.<\/p>\n<p>That the regime would be so weakened it could not choke off the Strait of Hormuz: no ship has passed without Iranian permission and\/or payment.<\/p>\n<p>That the danger of Iran landing blows against US interests in neighbouring countries was minimal: Iran landed blows on US aircraft, radar systems and troops continuously in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/countries\/kuwait\">Kuwait<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/countries\/saudi-arabia\">Saudi Arabia<\/a>, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/countries\/uae\">UAE<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/countries\/qatar\">Qatar<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>That street protests inside Iran would begin again, and with impetus provided by Mossad and an intense bombing campaign, conditions could be fostered for the Iranian opposition to overthrow the regime: there has not been one defection either at home or abroad from the regime, and popular rage against the bombing has consolidated, not diminished, support for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.<\/p>\n<p>The New York Times <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/04\/07\/us\/politics\/trump-iran-war.html\">reported <\/a>that Netanyahu delivered his presentation in a confident monotone, as if he knew in advance that Trump had made up his mind.<\/p>\n<p>But the Israeli prime minister, who had campaigned for decades for a US strike on Iran and who saw Iran\u2019s hand in every act of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/countries\/palestine\">Palestinian<\/a>\u00a0resistance, cannot be so confident today that Trump has his back.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Fates intertwined<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>There is no dispute that Netanyahu was the man who led Trump into this war. If the war goes wrong, he is the man upon whose shoulders the entire Washington establishment &#8211; Republican and Democrat &#8211; will place the blame.<\/p>\n<p>Then there is Trump, whose erratic social media posts have stoked calls by members of Congress for his <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/politics\/congress\/democrats-trump-removal-iran-threats-impeachment-25th-amendment-rcna267194\">impeachment<\/a>. His Republican base remains silent, as they, too, can see the direction in which this president is leading them ahead of the midterm elections in November.<\/p>\n<p>The joint venture in Iran means that Trump has tied his fate politically to that of Netanyahu, and yet the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/interactive\/trump-approval-tracker\">polls<\/a> for both men in the US are <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/short-reads\/2025\/06\/03\/most-people-across-24-surveyed-countries-have-negative-views-of-israel-and-netanyahu\/\">nosediving<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The latest evidence is a Pew Research <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pewresearch.org\/short-reads\/2026\/04\/07\/negative-views-of-israel-netanyahu-continue-to-rise-among-americans-especially-young-people\/\">poll<\/a> conducted at the end of March. It found that 60 percent of US adults have an unfavourable view of Israel, up from 53 percent last year. A total of 59 percent have little or no confidence in Netanyahu to do the right thing, up from 52 percent last year, and the majority of adults under 50 in both parties rate Israel and Netanyahu negatively.<\/p>\n<div align=\"center\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"YouTube video player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/4y5sOYAACnc?si=rwY3yiT6ca4xHygi\" width=\"560\" height=\"315\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><\/iframe><br \/>\n&#8212;<\/div>\n<p>If the experience of the last two sets of negotiations with the Iranians is anything to go by, there is a good chance that Trump will say Iran is not upholding its side of the deal and restart the campaign.<\/p>\n<p>Certainly Netanyahu will strain every sinew to engineer such a situation. He does not even need false-flag drone strikes against Iran\u2019s Gulf neighbours. He can simply keep on bombing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/countries\/lebanon\">Lebanon<\/a>, as he did <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/news\/israel-launches-massive-wave-strikes-across-lebanon-iran-ceasefire\">on Wednesday<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>But what if Trump does restart the war? What is there to do to Iran that he has not already tried? What new cards does Trump have to play?<\/p>\n<p>Iran has plenty. It can close Hormuz again, and start working on doing to the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the mouth of Red Sea what it has done to the Gulf.<\/p>\n<p>The Houthis in northern <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/countries\/yemen\">Yemen<\/a> have the air-to-sea missiles to attack shipping in the Red Sea. They had <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/04\/07\/world\/middleeast\/houthis-iran-yemen-war.html\">just joined<\/a> Iran\u2019s campaign. The global price of oil and basic commodities would shoot up in the event of a resumption of an air war that has already failed to bring Iran to heel once.<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Trump further weakened<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>Unlike the first or second Gulf wars, Trump does not have the backing of Europe. He could threaten European states by pulling out of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/topics\/nato\">Nato<\/a>, but Trump is not strong enough now to continue a war that makes no sense either to his allies or to his own party.<\/p>\n<p>The third Gulf war has distilled all the mistakes of the first two. They were made by former President George HW Bush in Iraq, and his son, George W Bush, in Afghanistan and Iraq, followed by the blunders of the Obama administration in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/countries\/libya\">Libya<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/countries\/syria\">Syria<\/a>, and the Biden administration in Gaza.<\/p>\n<p>Trump\u2019s campaign became one expletive-laden, racist, colonial rant, topped by his version of <em>Apocalypse Now<\/em> &#8211; his <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/trump-iran-threats-civilization-war-crimes-758eb5cd680d7d275c4e1c38b2e01e6d\">threat to end<\/a> 3,000 years of Iranian civilisation.<\/p>\n<p>In the world order that is forming in the ashes of American exceptionalism, Trump\u2019s inchoate ramblings are seen as weakness. The US under Trump has lost all sense of the utility of force &#8211; and that is a big thing for the world\u2019s strongest army to lose.<\/p>\n<p>Trump\u2019s lack of cards, and his weakness on the world stage, has already been marked by <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/countries\/china\">China<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/countries\/russia\">Russia<\/a>. They did not just abstain from a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/countries\/bahrain\">Bahraini<\/a> resolution\u00a0calling for the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened; they <a href=\"https:\/\/www.france24.com\/en\/live-news\/20260407-russia-china-veto-un-resolution-on-reopening-strait-of-hormuz\">vetoed it<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Fu Cong, China\u2019s ambassador to the United Nations, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/reel\/DW3Kenzj8KH\/\">described<\/a> the resolution as \u201cunbalanced\u201d and stated that it \u201conly accuses Iran\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWe don\u2019t think the resolution is balanced. It doesn\u2019t even touch upon the root cause of the situation,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/news.cgtn.com\/news\/2026-04-08\/Chinese-envoy-to-UN-No-license-for-use-of-force-1Mani4SL1MQ\/p.html\">he said<\/a>. \u201cI want to emphasise, in particular, the timing is very bad. We all heard what the US president has said [about targeting a whole civilisation].\u201d<\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong>Fragile ceasefire<\/strong><\/h2>\n<p>So what happens next? Two factors will determine the fate of the ceasefire: what happens in Hormuz, and whether transit can be formalised in an arrangement that Iran and Oman can live with. What happens in Lebanon will also be crucial.<\/p>\n<p>A major item in Iran\u2019s 10 demands was that the ceasefire should apply across the region, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/news\/whats-irans-10-point-plan-end-us-israeli-war\">particularly in Lebanon<\/a>. Yet hours after the chief mediator, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, said the ceasefire should <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cbc.ca\/news\/world\/livestory\/u-s-israel-iran-war-trump-deadline-9.7154523\">include Lebanon<\/a>, he was contradicted by Netanyahu, who vowed the campaign in southern Lebanon would continue.<\/p>\n<p>Will this hold? Will Iran allow Israel to continue to pulverise Lebanon as if nothing has happened?<\/p>\n<p>A Hezbollah official <a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/live\/iran-war-israel-trump-04-08-2026\">said the group<\/a> would not accept the continuation of Israeli strikes in Lebanon as it had done before the attack on Iran, but it is \u201cgiving a chance\u201d to the countries that reached the agreement to obligate Israel to follow it.<\/p>\n<p>Already, the ceasefire was struggling on Wednesday, as Israel carried out a blitzkrieg in Lebanon that hit <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/live-blog\/live-blog-update\/israel-says-it-hit-100-targets-lebanon-largest-ever-strikes?topic=War%2520on%2520Iran&amp;nid=436636&amp;fid=553833\">100 targets<\/a> in 10 minutes, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/live-blog\/live-blog-update\/casualties-mount-israeli-attacks-lebanon-including-10-killed-funeral-and\">killing dozens<\/a> and injuring hundreds. In addition, a major Saudi oil pipeline running east to west <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2026-04-08\/saudi-arabia-s-crucial-east-west-pipeline-hit-by-drone-attack\">was hit by Iran<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Hormuz and Lebanon will decide whether there is another round to this war on Iran &#8211; but Trump and Netanyahu know exactly what to expect if they plunge back in.<\/p>\n<p><em>The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Eye.<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"padding-left: 40px;\"><em>David Hearst is co-founder and editor-in-chief of Middle East Eye. He is a commentator and speaker on the region and analyst on Saudi Arabia. He was the Guardian&#8217;s foreign leader writer, and was correspondent in Russia, Europe, and Belfast. He joined the Guardian from The Scotsman, where he was education correspondent.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.middleeasteye.net\/opinion\/trumps-apocalypse-now-busted-flush-iran-has-proved-it-and-china-knows-it\">Source\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Every one of the predictions that Netanyahu pitched to Trump in the situation room of the White House on 11 February \u2013 over what would happen in the event of a U.S.\/Israeli strike \u2013 proved to be completely wrong. David Hearst explains<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39262,"featured_media":303381,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[58,41,51,37],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-325906","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-Current_Affairs","category-Inside_the_White_House_and_Washingtons_Beltway","category-Iran","category-Israel_Anti-Semitism_Zionism_and_US-UK_allies"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/325906","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/39262"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=325906"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/325906\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":325937,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/325906\/revisions\/325937"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/303381"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=325906"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=325906"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=325906"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}