{"id":324311,"date":"2026-03-08T07:38:03","date_gmt":"2026-03-08T07:38:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=324311"},"modified":"2026-03-10T08:07:46","modified_gmt":"2026-03-10T08:07:46","slug":"intel-report-warns-large-scale-war-unlikely-to-oust-irans-regime","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=324311","title":{"rendered":"Intel report warns large-scale war \u2018unlikely\u2019 to oust Iran\u2019s regime"},"content":{"rendered":"

John Hudson, Warren P. Strobel \u2013 Washington Post March 7, 2026<\/strong><\/h1>\n

A classified report by the National Intelligence Council found that even a large-scale assault on Iran launched by the United States would be unlikely to oust the Islamic republic\u2019s entrenched military and clerical establishment, a sobering assessment as the Trump administration raises the specter of an extended military campaign that officials say has \u201conly just begun.\u201d<\/p>\n

The findings, confirmed to The Washington Post by three people familiar with the report\u2019s contents, raise doubts about President Donald Trump\u2019s declared plan to \u201cclean out<\/a>\u201d Iran\u2019s leadership structure and install a ruler of his choosing.<\/p>\n

The report, completed about a week before the United States and Israel initiated the war on Feb. 28, outlined succession scenarios stemming from either a narrowly tailored campaign against Iran\u2019s leaders or a broader assault against its leadership and government institutions, the people familiar with its findings said. In both cases, the intelligence concluded that Iran\u2019s clerical and military establishment would respond to the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei by following protocols designed to preserve continuity of power<\/a>, these people said.<\/p>\n

The prospect of Iran\u2019s fragmented opposition taking control of the country was described as \u201cunlikely,\u201d said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a classified report.<\/p>\n

The National Intelligence Council, or NIC, is composed of veteran analysts who produce classified assessments meant to represent the collective wisdom of Washington\u2019s 18 intelligence agencies.<\/p>\n

The CIA referred questions to the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which declined to comment. The White House did not say if the president was briefed on this assessment before approving the military operation, which has quickly expanded east to include submarine warfare in the Indian Ocean and west to counter-missile showdowns near NATO member Turkey.<\/p>\n

\u201cPresident Trump and the administration have clearly outlined their goals with regard to Operation Epic Fury: destroy Iran\u2019s ballistic missiles and production capacity, demolish their navy, end their ability to arm proxies, and prevent them from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon,\u201d White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in a statement. \u201cThe Iranian regime is being absolutely crushed.\u201d<\/p>\n

U.S. spy agencies\u2019 doubts about Iran\u2019s opposition seizing power have been referenced in the New York Times<\/a>, Reuters<\/a> and the Wall Street Journal<\/a>. The NIC\u2019s involvement, and its analyses of the potential outcomes of small- and large-scale offensives, have not been previously reported.<\/p>\n

Suzanne Maloney, an Iran scholar and vice president at the Brookings Institution, said the NIC\u2019s prediction that Iran\u2019s institutions will endure stems from its rigorous knowledge of the Islamic republic.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt sounds like a deeply informed assessment of the Iranian system and the institutions and processes that have been established for many years,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n

It does not appear that the intelligence report examined other possible scenarios, including sending<\/a> U.S. ground troops into Iran or arming<\/a> the country\u2019s ethnic Kurds to foment a rebellion. It could not be determined whether the large-scale campaign that the classified document examined is identical to the operations now underway.<\/p>\n

The Iranian succession process that the report anticipated is now playing out but under duress from the extensive U.S.-Israel bombing campaign from the air and sea.<\/p>\n

The replacement of the supreme leader rests with Iran\u2019s powerful clerical body, the Assembly of Experts. But members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and others within the country\u2019s security establishment also play an influential role.<\/p>\n

There has been intense speculation that the assembly will anoint the late supreme leader\u2019s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, but no official announcement has been made. The IRGC has been pushing Khamenei\u2019s candidacy but has encountered resistance from other power brokers, including Ali Larijani, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran, a Western security official said.<\/p>\n

As the war enters its second week, Trump continues to demand Iran\u2019s \u201cUNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER,\u201d as he put it in a Truth Social post, and has suggested he should have a role in picking the country\u2019s next leader.<\/p>\n

Trump told journalists that the younger Khamenei is \u201cincompetent<\/a>\u201d and a \u201clightweight<\/a>,\u201d and that he doesn\u2019t want Iranian leaders who will simply \u201crebuild\u201d the country\u2019s nuclear and ballistic missile infrastructure.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe want them to have a good leader. We have some people who I think would do a good job,\u201d he told NBC News<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s Parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, rejected the notion that Trump will play any role in appointing Iran\u2019s next leader.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe fate of dear Iran, which is more precious than life, will be determined solely by the proud Iranian nation, not by [Jeffrey] Epstein\u2019s gang,\u201d Ghalibaf said on X<\/a>, referring to the late sex offender who was close friends with Trump for several years before they had a falling out.<\/p>\n

Current and former U.S. officials say they see little sign, at least so far, of a mass popular uprising in Iran or of significant fissures within the government or security forces that will result in a new regime. Iran\u2019s security forces killed thousands of protesters during demonstrations in January fueled by the country\u2019s abysmal economy. The guidance from Trump to the Iranian people has been to shelter in place until the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign concludes.<\/p>\n

With Iran\u2019s clerical and military establishment still in control, experts say Trump\u2019s ability to dictate political outcomes is limited.<\/p>\n

\u201cBending the knee to Trump would go against everything they stand for,\u201d said Holly Dagres, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. \u201cThe upper echelons of the clerical establishment are ideological, and so their modus operandi is to resist American imperialism.\u201d<\/p>\n

Trump could play kingmaker if the regime were to crumble, but the NIC report does not view the establishment\u2019s hold on power as brittle.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere\u2019s no other force within Iran that can confront the remaining power that the regime has,\u201d said Maloney, of the Brookings Institution. \u201cEven if they\u2019re not able to project that power very effectively against their neighbors, they can certainly dominate inside the country.\u201d<\/p>\n

Source\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A week before Trump approved strikes on Iran a classified intelligence report warned that even a large-scale campaign would be unlikely to oust the clerical regime. So why did Trump ignore the advice of his intelligence agencies? Or was he just following Netanyahu\u2019s instructions?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39262,"featured_media":306496,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[41,51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-324311","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-Inside_the_White_House_and_Washingtons_Beltway","category-Iran"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/324311","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/39262"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=324311"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/324311\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":324331,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/324311\/revisions\/324331"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/306496"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=324311"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=324311"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=324311"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}