A new military simulation has painted a chilling picture of how quickly Putin<\/strong><\/a>‘s forces could overrun parts of a NATO<\/strong><\/a> member state and ‘achieve most of its goals in days’.<\/p>\n The high-stakes wargame, conducted by former German and NATO officials, explored a fictional scenario in which Moscow<\/strong><\/a> launches an incursion into Lithuania.<\/p>\n It exploits fabricated claims of a ‘humanitarian crisis’ in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad as a pretext for military action.<\/p>\n In the scenario, set in October 2026, Russian forces sweep into the strategically vital Lithuanian city of Marijampole, a crucial junction on the road corridor linking Russia<\/strong><\/a> and Belarus<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n The exercise concluded that a lack of decisive American leadership and wavering responses from European allies could allow the Kremlin to dominate the Baltic region in a matter of days – using an initial force of just 15,000 troops.<\/p>\n Polish security analyst Bartlomiej Kot, who played the role of Poland<\/strong><\/a>‘s prime minister during the simulation, said the results were deeply concerning.<\/p>\n ‘The Russians achieved most of their goals without moving many of their own units,’ he told The Wall Street Journal.<\/p>\n ‘What this showed to me is that once we are confronted by the escalatory narrative from the Russian side, we have it embedded in our thinking that we are the ones who should be de-escalating.’<\/p>\n NATO’s steady encroachment on Russia’s border over the years. Click to enlarge<\/p><\/div>\n Marijampole is seen as a critical choke point in Europe’s transport network.<\/p>\n The Via Baltica highway, used by both the European Union and Ukraine, runs southwest towards Poland, while an east-west route connects Belarus with Kaliningrad\u00a0 – a corridor Lithuania is legally required to keep open for Russian transit under an international treaty.<\/p>\n During the simulated conflict, Moscow framed its advance into Lithuanian territory as a humanitarian operation.<\/p>\n The United States, in the scenario, declined to invoke NATO’s Article 5 mutual defence clause, which obliges alliance members to come to the aid of any member under attack.<\/p>\n Germany, meanwhile, hesitated to respond, and a brigade already stationed in Lithuania failed to intervene after Russian drones reportedly laid mines near a military base.<\/p>\n Poland mobilised its forces but ultimately stopped short of sending troops across the border to defend Lithuanian territory, according to the wargame’s projections.<\/p>\n Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst who acted as Russia’s chief of general staff in the exercise, suggested that psychological factors were as important as military hardware.<\/p>\n ‘Deterrence depends not only on capabilities, but on what the enemy believes about our will, and in the wargame, my “Russian colleagues” and I knew: Germany will hesitate. And this was enough to win,’ he said.<\/p>\n The simulation comes amid growing anxiety across Europe about the possibility of a Russian assault on NATO territory.<\/p>\n In recent years, Moscow has repeatedly tested the alliance’s air defences, with drones and fighter jets breaching NATO airspace in what analysts say is an attempt to probe responses and expose weaknesses.<\/p>\n Dutch Defence Minister Ruben Brekelmans warned that Russia is accelerating its military preparations, telling the Journal that his government had assessed that ‘Russia will be able to move large amounts of troops within one year’.<\/p>\n He added: ‘We see that they are already increasing their strategic inventories, and are expanding their presence and assets along the NATO borders.’<\/p>\n The exercise was conducted in December by German newspaper Die Welt in partnership with the German Wargaming Center at the Helmut-Schmidt University of the German Armed Forces, adding to mounting concerns that Europe may be dangerously unprepared for a rapid and coordinated Russian offensive.<\/p>\n It comes after Russia and Belarus<\/strong><\/a> launched a major joint military exercise in September.<\/p>\n The Zapad (‘West’) 2025 drills were held in Russia and Belarus, on the border with NATO<\/strong><\/a>‘s eastern flank, from September 12 to September 16.<\/p>\n Troops practiced ‘planning the use of’ nuclear weapons<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0and the nuclear-capable Oreshnik ballistic missiles that Moscow promised to station in Belarus.<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/NATO-land-border-with-Russia.png\")
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