A billboard in Tehran depicting a bloodied aircraft carrier in the shape and colors of the American flag. A slogan written in both Persian and English read: \u201cIf you sow the wind, you will reap the whirlwind.\u201d<\/p>\n
The US faces serious risks if it attacks Iran again, which held back much of its military strength during the 12-day June 2025 war, and any future aggression could provoke a far stronger response, warns the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).<\/strong><\/p>\n A report from ECFR published on Tuesday highlights Iran\u2019s unmatched combination of size, population, and military capability, saying,\u00a0\u201cWith over 90 million citizens and territory nearly four times the size of Iraq, Iran presents a logistical and operational challenge far exceeding previous US interventions.”<\/p>\n Libya\u2019s population during NATO\u2019s 2011 aggression was fifteen times smaller than Iran\u2019s, while Iraq\u2019s population at the 2003 invasion was less than one-third of today\u2019s Iranian population, the report said.<\/p>\n ECFR notes that such scale, combined with Iran\u2019s geographic diversity, makes any attempt to overthrow Iran’s government extremely difficult.<\/p>\n During the June 2025 war, Iran deliberately refrained from using much of its military arsenal. ECFR analysts observe that Tehran \u201ccould deploy weapons and strategies it has so far held in reserve if its national security were threatened.\u201d<\/p>\n This deliberate restraint illustrates Iran\u2019s strategic patience and credible deterrence, signaling that further US escalation would encounter formidable resistance, according to the report.<\/p>\n Iran also benefits from a network of regional allies, including resistance groups in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen, which could coordinate defensive or retaliatory actions against potential aggressors.<\/p>\n According to the report, Tehran\u2019s military readiness extends beyond conventional forces as it is capable of protecting critical oil infrastructure and controlling the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint for global energy supplies. Any disruption there could cause severe economic consequences worldwide.<\/p>\n Historical experience reinforces ECFR\u2019s warnings. Past US interventions in Libya and Syria, launched under the pretext of protecting civilians, instead resulted in prolonged instability, economic collapse, and widespread chaos.<\/p>\n Similar tactics applied in Iran would backfire, causing greater losses for Washington while leaving Iranian sovereignty intact, ECFR noted.<\/p>\n This comes\u00a0as European and regional powers have urged caution, emphasizing that Iran\u2019s thirteen land and maritime borders make any large-scale conflict highly destabilizing.<\/p>\n \u201cIran\u2019s combination of population, territory, and disciplined military forces ensures that external powers cannot easily impose their will,\u201d the report emphasizes.<\/p>\n Iran has demonstrated restraint during prior conflicts, along with its military capabilities, which would give it a strategic advantage in deterring foreign intervention, ECFR concluded.<\/p>\n