{"id":321264,"date":"2026-01-07T08:52:16","date_gmt":"2026-01-07T08:52:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=321264"},"modified":"2026-01-09T09:21:56","modified_gmt":"2026-01-09T09:21:56","slug":"the-precursors-for-war-are-in-place-iran-is-the-peg-to-intense-political-jockeying-to-define-the-post-trump-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/?p=321264","title":{"rendered":"The precursors for war are in place. Iran is the peg to intense political jockeying to define the post-Trump future"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alistair Crooke \u2013 Strategic Culture.su Jan 5, 2026<\/strong><\/h1>\n

At the 30\u00a0December meeting with Netanyahu and his team, President Trump publicly committed to attacking Iran: If they continue with their ballistic missile program,\u00a0\u2018Yes\u2019. And for their nuclear: \u2018Immediate\u2019.\u00a0\u201cWe\u2019ll\u00a0knock the hell out of them<\/em>\u201c, Trump said.<\/p>\n

By contrast to this belligerency,\u00a0the\u00a0Trump language at the Mar-a-Lago meeting reflected only warmth and fulsome praise for Netanyahu and Israel. Publicly, Netanyahu had received Trump\u2019s public backing on an attack on Iran\u00a0and for Gaza Phase\u00a0Two, but behind the scenes many of the specifics remained\u00a0undefined<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0disputed.<\/p>\n

The escalatory language towards Iran was no surprise to Tehran. It had been expected. All the pointers toward coming hostilities are in plain sight: The escalating\u00a0narrative \u2013 \u201chundreds of al-Qaida sleeper cells ready to unleash carnage; Al-Qaida found safe harbour in Iran for 25 years \u2026 [allowing Iran] to supercharge the spread of Islamic fundamentalism\u201d<\/em>, an \u2018infiltrator for MI5 and MI6\u2019\u00a0claims<\/a>.\u00a0On\u00a0cue, the Iranian currency falls precipitously \u2013 and Iranians take to the streets.<\/p>\n

What lies behind this outbreak of U.S.-Israeli militarism? Trump\u2019s bluster about \u2018the gates\u00a0of Hell\u2019\u00a0opening to \u2018whomsoever\u2019 is familiar to us all now. Nonetheless the signs are that Trump and Netanyahu are aligned for another round of war.<\/p>\n

But why should Netanyahu be opting for kinetic action when Israel was so badly scarred by the incoming sophisticated Iranian missiles during the so-called June 12-day\u00a0war \u2013 and when Israeli air-defences proved deficient? Iran has been re-arming and preparing for a further round ever since.<\/p>\n

Some context is required to explain this otherwise seemingly irrational path being pursued by Israel \u2013 given the evident dangers attendant on war with Iran.<\/p>\n

The first point to note is that\u00a0Netanyahu is in trouble<\/a>. His political downfall has been foretold many times before, yet somehow \u2018Houdini\u2019 manages to escape the bonds and cuffs of malign\u00a0Fate. This time it\u00a0is more serious. The legal consensus is that Netanyahu is likely to be convicted should his corruption cases reach their conclusion.<\/p>\n

But that is only one aspect. The tip of the spear, however,\u00a0are\u00a0the\u00a0\u2018Qatargate\u2019 allegations \u2013 the substance of which is that three members of the PM\u2019s immediate\u00a0staff have been\u00a0in\u00a0the pay of Qatar for the past years, including during the Gaza war (this claim is not disputed). The key issues are: Did Netanyahu know; if not, why not? And what was the benefit being sought by Qatar in exchange\u00a0for payments? The latter aspect \u2013 the return sought by Qatar \u2013 is not clear. It is possible that for Qatar it was sufficient to have the PM\u2019s people on the payroll (against a later\u00a0\u2018rainy day\u2019 need).<\/p>\n

In Israel, however, the allegations have become explosive.\u00a0The la<\/a>bel \u201c<\/a>treason\u201d<\/a>\u00a0is\u00a0being bandied about widely, including\u00a0by former Prime Minister Nafthali Bennett and former Defence Minister Bogie Yalom.\u00a0Those Israelis of a more cynical bent suggest that\u00a0the primordial point to the Netanyahu family\u2019s visit to Palm Beach was not so much to discuss Gaza, but rather to progress\u00a0Trump\u2019s lobbying<\/a>\u00a0for a pardon or trial termination \u2013 to be urged upon a prevaricating President Hertzog.<\/p>\n

In short, Netanyahu is in need of a \u2018balloon\u2019\u00a0to lift him out of\u00a0the\u00a0morass of his legal entanglements and his unfinished wars, and to be wafted aloft through a popular cause by which to win the 2026\u00a0general elections. The defeat of Iran, just to be clear, would be applauded \u2013 not just by Israelis \u2013 but by an enthusiastic U.S. Congress; by donors; and both wings of the Uniparty controlling structures.<\/p>\n

For Trump, the calculus would be somewhat different. The principle of avoiding public disputes with Netanyahu was established by former President Biden \u2013 not without\u00a0hiccoughs:\u00a0\u201cBibi deliberately sought friction with Biden. With President Trump, he avoids it<\/em>\u201d, one U.S. official hasnoted.<\/a>\u00a0Trump\u00a0also is personally loath to alienate some of his most loyal donors, such as Miriam Adelson, and\u00a0commentators\u00a0such\u00a0as Mark Levin.<\/p>\n

This Trump trajectory can be understood against the backdrop\u00a0of the divisions over U.S. support for Israel that has been fracturing his MAGA base (and alienating younger Democrats, too). The images coming out of Gaza of dead women and children galvanised the key constituency, Turning Point USA. A big part of the MAGA\u00a0win in 2024 was due to this youth movement with thousands of chapters, Christian values\u00a0and high energy.\u00a0Turning Point USA<\/em>\u00a0potentially offers a formidable \u2018Get Out the Vote\u2019 operation.<\/p>\n

A small group of top GOP\u00a0party officials, in\u00a0combination with powerful established politicians and major donors, seeks to block MAGA extending their reach to take control of the Republican Party \u2013 thereby\u00a0threatening the Party leaders\u2019 primacy. This (now) leaderless, yet organically flourishing \u2018silent majority\u2019 is silent no more. The Party Control Officers want it tamed and back under control.<\/p>\n

Inserting the wedge issue into MAGA \u2013 \u2018if\u00a0you do not support the policies of Netanyahu, you are an antisemite, a hater of Israel\u2019\u00a0\u2014\u00a0<\/em>was\u00a0done intentionally, with paid influencers fanning the intra-party fracture, aimed at weakening the Movement. The traditional GOP\u00a0leaders want to regain full control.<\/p>\n

From Trump\u2019s perspective, it is entirely possible to support the State of Israel and still be critical of the politics of the current Netanyahu administration. This\u00a0represents his hoped for compromise that might keep MAGA whole, going into the mid-term elections. Beneath Trump\u2019s Mar-a-Lago Netanyahu strategy lies intense jockeying to control not just the mid-term outcomes, but the shaping of the 2028 Presidential election.<\/p>\n

The pro-Israel donor faction asserts that Trump (and Vance\u2019s) stance of supporting Israel,\u00a0whilst questioning its policies<\/a>, is a false dichotomy: To criticise Israel is\u00a0ipso facto\u00a0<\/em>anti-semitic,\u00a0Netanyahu insists<\/a>. This effort to split the MAGA\u00a0base \u2013 using Israel\u00a0\u2014\u00a0may\u00a0or may not work. The problem for these high-level party managers is that their playbook of wedge-driving is now too well understood by Gen Z.<\/p>\n

So an U.S.-Israeli war on Iran effectively plays out at different levels other than day-day rationality. It is, of course, centred on Iran; but for the Trump circle,\u00a0it is also a complicated game of chess about who will end in control of MAGA \u2013 and by extension the post-Trump era.<\/p>\n

And in Israel, the prospect of war becomes too, a board on which to observe the business of which factions (and their donors) will prevail through the cauldron of\u00a0the\u00a0coming war to control the system and define what \u2018Israel\u2019 will\u00a0be. Or rather, what remains of it will\u00a0be.<\/em><\/p>\n

Against this, the doubts and concerns of the professional military echelon in Israel, or in the U.S., may be muted out of concern for not being sufficiently \u2018on team\u2019\u00a0amidst the fervour for war.<\/p>\n

Source\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It has been decided, writes Alistair Crooke. At the 30 December meeting with Netanyahu and his team, President Trump publicly committed to attacking Iran<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":39262,"featured_media":215220,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61,58,51],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-321264","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-Commentary","category-Current_Affairs","category-Iran"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/321264","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/39262"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=321264"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/321264\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":321265,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/321264\/revisions\/321265"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/215220"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=321264"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=321264"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.thetruthseeker.co.uk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=321264"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}