The Air Force says it needs to dramatically grow its fighter fleet by hundreds of manned, combat-ready jets over the next decade in order to meet expected threats to America \u2014 a massive expansion of procurement plans that may not be feasible due to funding limits and production constraints.<\/p>\n
Overall, a new, unclassified, ten-year fighter force structure plan dated this month and submitted to Congress says that the service needs a total of 1,558 combat-coded fighter jets \u2014 nearly 300 more than a current estimated inventory of 1,271 in fiscal 2026 \u2014 to meet the Trump administration\u2019s Interim National Defense Strategic Guidance.<\/p>\n
The plan, obtained by Breaking Defense and previously reported<\/a> by Inside Defense, was signed by Air Force Secretary Troy Meink and is mandated by the fiscal 2025 National Defense Authorization Act to be submitted every year through 2029. While the document does not explicitly ask Congress for additional funds, its outlining of how more dollars could be used to boost fighter production, combined with its unclassified nature, are likely intended to encourage lawmakers to consider providing greater resources to the service.<\/p>\n \u201cThe Department of the Air Force (DAF) is focused on modernizing current fifth generation and legacy capability fighter aircraft fleets, expanding exquisite warfighting capabilities, and acquiring new advanced fighter capability,\u201d the report says, noting that the service will \u201cprocure aircraft commensurate with production of full combat capability.\u201d<\/p>\n To reach the goal of 1,558 jets over the next 10 years, the service says it needs to procure fighters at a greater rate. A target inventory of 1,369 aircraft could be reached by \u201cearly 2030,\u201d but due to various competing modernization demands, the report warns the service may not be able to afford the requisite production.<\/p>\n A key step to \u201cmeet acceptable military risk milestones by 2030\u201d entails the Air Force maxing out procurement of the Boeing F-15EX and Lockheed Martin F-35A.<\/p>\n According to the report, Boeing could achieve a max annual production rate of two dozen F-15EXs by FY27. The aerospace giant could further expand to an annual rate of up to 36 jets with \u201cadditional funding for facilities,\u201d the report notes. The document asserts that the Air Force is currently programmed for 129 F-15EXs and expects 126 to be delivered by the end of 2030, which is \u201cnine months behind schedule.\u201d<\/p>\n \u201cWe expect the F-15 production line to remain active well into the next decade, with aircraft operating through the 2050s. With current international F-15 customers expressing interest in new builds and upgrades to existing platforms, Boeing plans production for domestic and international customers,\u201d Mark Sears, Boeing vice president for fighters, said in a statement to Breaking Defense. \u201cWe are increasing production to meet anticipated demand and plan to double output to 24 aircraft in the coming years.\u201d<\/p>\n Despite the F-35 being something of a loser<\/a> in the FY26 budget, the report describes the jet as \u201cthe foundation of the USAF fighter force structure\u201d that will play a \u201ccritical\u201d role in suppressing enemy air defenses. Pointing to hardware and software shortages<\/a> with new upgrades, the report says the Air Force \u201cseeks to rapidly increase F-35 procurement\u201d once issues are ironed out.<\/p>\n The Air Force has long said its F-35A program of record is 1,763 aircraft, which the Trump administration does not appear to have changed. And the document states that Lockheed could churn out 100 F-35As a year by FY30.<\/p>\n But hitting that production figure for the US Air Force alone, as the document appears to suggest, would be a dramatic change for the F-35 program, and would likely come with steep manufacturing and budget pressures \u2014 and, potentially, require prioritizing the US Air Force over other partner nations. For example, the program\u2019s deal for Lot 19<\/a>, whose deliveries are scheduled to begin in 2027, covers a total of 148 copies of the tri-variant stealth fighter, of which 105 are A variants \u2014 with just 40 reserved for the US Air Force and 65 set aside for foreign buyers. (Production lots do not neatly map on to calendar years, but roughly equal a year\u2019s worth of manufacturing.)<\/p>\n Lockheed officials have said the firm can currently produce a total of 156 aircraft per year, which could stretch to roughly 165<\/a> with additional capacity via a new partnership<\/a> with the German company Rheinmetall to produce center fuselages. The Air Force originally hoped to procure as many as 80 F-35As<\/a> annually.<\/p>\n \u201cThe F-35 offers the most advanced fighter capability and technology and is the most affordable option to ensure America and its allies remain ahead of emerging threats. We appreciate the U.S. Air Force\u2019s continued confidence in the combat-proven F-35 and investment in national defense,\u201d a Lockheed spokesperson said in a statement to Breaking Defense.<\/p>\n \u201cThis solidifies our confidence in the build rate, and we are positioned to meet the increased demand,\u201d the spokesperson added. \u201cWe will continue to work closely with the [F-35] Joint Program Office to ensure we are supporting the requirements of our U.S. and international customers.\u201d<\/p>\n Growing to that 2035 fleet target size will involve more than just the F-15 and F-35.<\/p>\n Artists rendition of the F-47<\/p><\/div>\n The service\u2019s future fighter force projections include the forthcoming F-47 sixth-generation aircraft<\/a> that the Air Force selected Boeing earlier this year to build, which the service called its \u201cnumber one modernization priority\u201d in the fighter portfolio along with Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) drone wingmen. The report says the F-47\u2019s production lines are set to open \u201csoon\u201d but a projected procurement figure was not included in the unclassified version of the document.<\/p>\n However, there may also be some accounting help to get the service to this new figure. The report offers a new way to count the service\u2019s fighter force structure, arguing that a metric encompassing platforms like backup and attrition reserve aircraft, called Combat Coded Total Aircraft Inventory, offers a more accurate assessment.<\/p>\n Along those lines, the report emphasizes that more investments<\/a> are needed both in sustaining aircraft and flying them. The service\u2019s weapon system sustainment fund currently operates at about a $400 million annual shortfall, which needs to be \u201cright size[d]\u201d to ensure proper maintenance, the report says. The document adds that the Air Force also plans to increase the flying hour program, which the service uses to train aircrews, though it does not share the cost of the increase that will need to \u201cbe rebalanced throughout the USAF budget.\u201d<\/p>\n Also complicating the math: plans to retire older planes.<\/p>\nF-15, F-35 Production Ramps<\/strong><\/h2>\n
Working The Math<\/strong><\/h2>\n
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