Over the next few days, Hamas will be studying\u00a0Donald Trump\u2019s 20-point plan for Gaza.<\/p>\n
The proposal, already approved by Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel\u2019s prime minister, would disarm the Palestinian movement and end its presence in the Gaza Strip.<\/p>\n
In fact, it will take Gaza completely out of Palestinian hands.<\/p>\n
There are a number of points that will be welcomed by large sections of Palestinian society.<\/p>\n
The deal would secure the release of 250 prisoners with life sentences, as well 1,700 Palestinians from Gaza who have been detained in horrifying conditions since October 2023.<\/p>\n
The text even notes that \u201call women and children detained in that context\u201d would be released – suggesting an admission of guilt that they have been held deliberately as bargaining chips.<\/p>\n
It notes that if all sides agree to the deal, \u201cfull aid will be immediately sent into the Gaza Strip\u201d. That aid would enter, without interference, through the UN and its agencies, the Red Crescent, and other institutions \u201cnot associated in any manner with either party\u201d.<\/p>\n
That would appear to spell the end of the highly controversial US- and Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.<\/p>\n
Again, the wording acknowledges Israeli violations, clearly\u00a0suggesting that aid was not being allowed in sufficiently and that it was being distributed by an organisation associated with Israel.<\/p>\n
But there is significant wiggle room for Israel in much of the agreement, due to the ambiguous and vague talk of timelines.<\/p>\n
An “International Stabilisation Force” (ISF) will be deployed in Gaza. Meanwhile, the Israeli military \u201cwill withdraw based on standards, milestones, and timeframes linked to demilitarisation\u201d to be agreed upon between Israel, the ISF, the US and global guarantors.<\/p>\n
What those milestones and timeframes will be is anyone\u2019s guess at this point.<\/p>\n
\u201cThere is no plan in the sense of something sufficiently substantive and detailed that could be implemented – no granularity around the specifics of timelines and maps,\u201d Daniel Levy, a British-Israeli analyst and former peace negotiator, told MEE.<\/p>\n
\u201cThat is by design. It allows Israel to blame the other side when either a deal is not reached or when Netanyahu decides to desist from implementing and resumes the genocide assault.\u201d<\/p>\n
Annelle Sheline, a former US State Department official who resigned over the Gaza war, agreed that the plan was intentionally vague and recalled the failed 1993 Oslo Accords.<\/p>\n
\u201cFurthermore, similar to Oslo, there are no penalties (for Israel) if it fails to adhere to the terms. Therefore, Israel has no incentive to ensure that it complies with the agreement, a standard feature of American proposals for ‘resolving’ the conflict,\u201d she told MEE.<\/p>\n
Notably unlike the previous ceasefire deal in January, in which Israel was compelled to withdraw to a perimeter area 900 metres around Gaza, under Trump\u2019s plan, Israel will initially occupy<\/a> large cities such as Rafah, Khan Younis, Jabalia and Beit Hanoun.<\/p>\n When it comes to the displacement of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, there appears to be a shift in Trump\u2019s language.<\/p>\n While in February he spoke of \u201cowning Gaza\u201d and expelling its inhabitants to make way for the \u201cRiviera of the Middle East\u201d, the language has now softened.<\/p>\n The proposal states: \u201cNo one will be forced to leave Gaza, and those who wish to leave will be free to do so and free to return.\u201d<\/p>\n It adds that people will be encouraged to stay in Gaza, and will be offered the opportunity \u201cto build a better life\u201d.<\/p>\n Analysts are sceptical as to whether this will be the reality.<\/p>\n Abed Abou Shhadeh, a Palestinian political analyst based in Jaffa, told MEE that part of the reason that forcible displacement was not spelled out was because Israel could not find a third country to house them.<\/p>\n \u201cIn case they do find a third country, they will continue pushing more Palestinians out,\u201d he said. \u201cWhether that\u2019s through a deal, or people leaving for humanitarian reasons.\u201d<\/p>\n Abou Shhadeh notes that Israel has invested a lot of time, including by setting up a government agency, into what it describes as the \u201cvoluntary departure\u201d plan.<\/p>\n \u201cPeople in the West underestimate the seriousness of Israelis with its plan to expel Palestinians,\u201d he said, adding that plans to destroy Gaza\u2019s tunnel infrastructure – hinted at in the proposal – could make the enclave even more unlivable.<\/p>\n Qossay Hamed, an expert on Hamas and academic at Al-Quds Open University in Ramallah, agrees.<\/p>\n \u201cThe plan doesn\u2019t include displacement of Gaza but the inhuman conditions might force people to leave,\u201d he told MEE. \u201cThe Israelis and Americans know Gaza is no longer suitable for human living.\u201d<\/p>\n Middle East Peace Envoy and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Click to enlarge<\/p><\/div>\n As for future governance, the plan would see an international board, dubbed the \u201cBoard of Peace\u201d, take over Gaza in a transitional period.<\/p>\n Trump would head up the board with the support of Tony Blair, the former British prime minister, and other heads of states and figures.<\/p>\nAn end to ethnic cleansing?<\/strong><\/h2>\n
‘For Blair, everything is about GDP and economics’<\/strong><\/h2>\n
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