Smoke rises above Tehran following an Israeli air strike on June 14, 2025<\/p>\n
The recent 12-day war between Israel and Iran dramatically exposed the gaping vulnerabilities in Iran\u2019s air defence capabilities. Israeli F-35, F-15, and F-16 jets operated with near impunity, bombarding critical Iranian sites, including airbases, nuclear facilities like Fordo, Isfahan, and Natanz, and vital industrial and energy infrastructure. The Israeli Air Force destroyed approximately 120 Iranian air defence launchers, about a third of its pre-war inventory. This stark reality has undoubtedly accelerated Tehran\u2019s pursuit of modern aerial protection.<\/p>\n
Iran\u2019s reliance on antiquated, US-made aircraft from the Shah\u2019s era, combined with an aging, largely indigenous air defence network, proved woefully inadequate. Decades of international sanctions have severely hampered Iran\u2019s ability to maintain and modernise these platforms. The Iranian Air Force, described by experts as a \u201cflying museum,\u201d is primarily composed of US-made aircraft acquired before the 1979 revolution, including F-4 Phantom IIs, F-14A Tomcats, and F-5E\/F Tiger IIs. As of early 2025, the Iranian Air Force formally maintained about 150 fighters in service, predominantly these outdated American-made models. Iran has resorted to cannibalising aircraft for parts and illicit procurement, leaving the Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) technologically stagnant and unable to compete with modern air forces. The confirmed destruction of F-14s by Israeli drones in June 2025 underscored this obsolescence.<\/p>\n
The \u201c12-Day War\u201d with Israel and the US\u2019s \u201cOperation Midnight Hammer\u201d revealed a critical failure in Iran\u2019s air defence network. During \u201cOperation Midnight Hammer\u201d on June 22, 2025, US Air Force B-2 Spirit stealth bombers, carrying 30,000-pound \u201cbunker buster\u201d bombs and Tomahawk missiles, targeted the Fordo Uranium Enrichment Plant, the Natanz Nuclear Facility, and the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center. Iran\u2019s air defense systems, including Russian-made S-300s and indigenous Bavar-373s and Khordad-15s, completely failed to repel these strikes. Russian-made air defence systems used by Tehran proved inadequate and failed. Russia\u2019s S-300 systems now appear helpless against modern Western technology.<\/p>\n
The critical flaw identified was not just outdated hardware, but a systemic inability of different platforms to work together. Systems appeared to \u201clack proper data integration and operate in a disjointed and non-networked manner,\u201d rendering them ineffective as a cohesive defence network.<\/strong> This disjointedness allowed Israeli F-35, F-15, and F-16 jets to operate with near impunity, demonstrating complete air superiority and operational freedom to hit any target, anywhere inside Iran, without interference.<\/p>\n After the war, Iran began replacing its outdated Western weapons by actively seeking advanced arms from Eastern suppliers. Although Russia still plays a significant role, reports indicate that Russia has significantly delayed Su-35 deliveries to Iran. The deal for two dozen Russian Su-35s, announced in 2023, has yet to see a single aircraft delivered, with some reportedly diverted to Algeria. This highlights Russia\u2019s declining reliability as a supplier, partly due to its ongoing war in Ukraine and its reluctance to upset other regional partners. Iranian officials, speaking anonymously to Reuters<\/em>, expressed \u201cfrustration with Moscow\u2019s perceived inaction,\u201d feeling \u201clet down by both Russia and China, despite repeated calls for support.\u201d This has prompted Iran to shift its focus more strongly towards Beijing.<\/p>\n The recent conflict between India and Pakistan, where Chinese-made fighter jets, primarily the J-10CE, and ground-to-air missiles demonstrated significant effectiveness against French-made Rafale jets, serves as a powerful testament to China\u2019s growing military-industrial prowess. Douglas Barrie, an air combat expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, noted \u201cthe likely first combat use of the Chinese Chengdu J-10CE in service with the Pakistan Air Force, equipped with the PL-15 (CH-AA-10 Abaddon) medium-to-long range air-to-air missile.\u201d In this conflict, Pakistan\u2019s J-10CEs, armed with Chinese PL-15 missiles, reportedly downed four Indian Rafale fighters without any losses, a victory that significantly boosted the Chinese defence industry\u2019s reputation.<\/p>\n Iran is actively negotiating with China for the acquisition of advanced J-10C fighter jets, a 4.5th-generation aircraft that would represent a significant upgrade to their air force. These jets, equipped with Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radars and long-range PL-15E missiles, could genuinely challenge regional air superiority. \u201cThe J-10C could prove a more practical, fast, and cost-effective solution for Iran, given its proven performance, lower cost, and China\u2019s reliable supply chain,\u201d according to the EurAsian Times. Furthermore, China has already delivered HQ-16 and HQ-17AE anti-aircraft missile systems, along with ammunition, to Iran, indicating a broader push for integrated air defence solutions. While the Shenyang J-35 \u201cGyrfalcon,\u201d a 5th-generation stealth fighter often dubbed \u201cChina\u2019s answer to the F-35,\u201d remains an aspirational long-term objective for Iran, the immediate focus is on the J-10C to rapidly bridge critical capability gaps.<\/p>\n Iran\u2019s military modernisation is part of a complex geopolitical alignment with Russia and China, aimed at countering Western influence. This Russia-China-Iran axis is best described as a fragile tactical coalition driven by converging interests rather than shared values. Dr Stefan Meister and David Jalivand write in the German Council on Foreign Relations, \u201cRussia is both unwilling and unable to offer Iran any meaningful support that could shift the balance in Tehran\u2019s favour. Tehran and its partners converge around a shared objective: weakening US global influence and positioning themselves as key actors.\u201d Both Moscow and Beijing utilize Iran as a strategic lever to challenge US dominance, but their support is conditional and self-serving. They balance their ties with Iran against relationships with other regional powers, such as Saudi Arabia and T\u00fcrkiye. They are wary of being drawn into a confrontation with the West on Iran\u2019s behalf. China is the largest importer of Iranian oil, helping Tehran bypass sanctions and generate state revenue while increasing Beijing\u2019s role in Gulf maritime security.<\/p>\n This \u201cfair-weather friend\u201d dynamic means Iran cannot rely on them as absolute guarantors of its security, creating inherent limitations on its modernisation efforts and strategic maneuverability. The relatively muted responses by China and Russia to the 12-day war, despite their rhetorical support, underscored this transactional nature. While China provides an economic lifeline by purchasing over 90 per cent of Iran\u2019s oil exports, often at a discount, and offers military hardware, it has shown no concrete sign of joint military engagement on Iran\u2019s behalf during the recent conflict.<\/p>\n This strategic pivot towards Chinese military hardware highlights Iran\u2019s desperate need to modernise its defences and redefine its aerial capabilities in a volatile region. However, the path forward remains fraught with challenges, including the persistent impact of sanctions on its economy and the inherent limitations of a strategic partnership based on convenience rather than a deep alliance. Iran\u2019s quest to transform its rust-belt air force into a credible deterrent will be a defining factor in the evolving security landscape of the Middle East.<\/p>\nThe pivot to the East<\/strong><\/h2>\n
The \u201cTactical Alliance\u201d and its limitations<\/strong><\/h2>\n