The Luftwaffe regarded the blitz on Coventry on 14 November 1940 as an astonishing technological achievement. German<\/a> propaganda broadcasts hailed the raid<\/a> as \u201cthe most severe in the whole history of the war\u201d.<\/p>\n The chief Nazi propagandist, Joseph Goebbels, was so delighted with the raid, that he coined a new term in its honour: \u201cto Coventrate\u201d. It was not long, however, before the taste of total victory turned sour.<\/p>\n The production of aero engines and aircraft parts was quickly shifted to shadow factories<\/a>. Capacity had only been dented, not destroyed; within months, factories were back<\/a> to full production.<\/p>\n We also know now that the Germans were worried by the effect the image of the ruined Coventry Cathedral would have on the Americans who were yet to join the war.\u00a0Indeed, the Germans underestimated the resilience of the British<\/a>, who forged instead a resolve to hit back as never before. The Royal Air Force began a forceful bombing campaign of Germany shortly afterwards.<\/p>\n It has taken Israel<\/a>\u2019s high command just 12 days to see the total victory they claimed to have achieved in the first hours of their blitz on Iran<\/a> turn into something that looks more like a strategic defeat. Hence Israel\u2019s massive reluctance to stick to a ceasefire, after promising US<\/a> President Donald Trump it would abide by it.<\/p>\n None of Israel\u2019s three war aims have been met. There is no evidence yet that Iran\u2019s nuclear enrichment programme has been \u201ccompletely and fully obliterated\u201d as Trump claimed<\/a>.<\/p>\n Iran had time to move at least some of its centrifuges out of harm\u2019s way, and it\u2019s not clear where the existing stockpile of more than 400 kilogrammes<\/a> of highly enriched uranium is being stored.\u00a0Meanwhile, the scores of generals and scientists killed in the first hours of the attack were swiftly replaced.<\/p>\n An assessment by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon\u2019s intelligence arm, found that the US military strikes on three of Iran\u2019s nuclear facilities did not destroy the core components of Tehran\u2019s nuclear programme and only set it back by a matter of months , CNN reported on Tuesday, citing three people who saw it.<\/p>\n If Coventry is anything to go by, uranium enrichment and missile-launcher production will be up and running within months, not years<\/a>, as the Americans claim.\u00a0The technology, the know-how, and above all the Iranian national will to restore and rebuild key national assets have all weathered the storm.<\/p>\n Evidently, from the damage Iranian missiles inflicted within hours of Trump\u2019s announcement of a ceasefire, its ballistic missile force, the second Israeli war aim, remains a palpable and continuing threat to Israel.<\/p>\n Israel sustained more damage from Iran\u2019s missiles in 12 days than it did from two years of Hamas\u2019s homegrown rockets, or indeed from months of war with Hezbollah<\/a>.<\/p>\n Damage from Iranian missiles in Tel Aviv. Click to enlarge<\/p><\/div>\n In 12 days, Israeli crews have come to grips with the sort of damage to apartment blocks that\u00a0before only\u00a0Israeli planes had inflicted on Gaza and Lebanon<\/a> – and it\u2019s been something of a shock. Strategic targets have been hit, including an oil refinery<\/a> and a power station<\/a>. Iran has also reported strikes on Israeli military facilities<\/a>, although Israel\u2019s strict censorship regime makes these assertions difficult to verify.<\/p>\n And finally, the Iranian regime is still standing. If anything, the regime has rallied the nation rather than dividing it, if only out of nationalist fury about Israel\u2019s unprovoked attack.<\/p>\n Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu\u2019s other great \u201cachievement\u201d – dragging the US into its war – now looks like a poisoned chalice.<\/p>\n For how much longer will that\u00a0banner<\/a>\u00a0– \u201cThank you, Mr President\u201d – be up on a central highway in Tel Aviv, after Trump applied a massive and premature handbrake on Netanyahu\u2019s war machine?<\/p>\n Twelve days ago, Trump started by refuting the notion of any US involvement<\/a> in Israel\u2019s surprise attack on Iran. When he saw it was succeeding, Trump attempted to muscle his way in on the project, saying it could only have been achieved with US technology.<\/p>\n As the attack wore on, Trump suggested that he, too, would not be opposed to regime change<\/a>. But in the final 24 hours, Trump lurched from demanding Iran\u2019s unconditional surrender, to thanking Iran for warning the US of its intention to strike al-Udeid air base in Qatar<\/a>, and declaring peace in our time.<\/p>\n Blasts light up the skyline in Tel Aviv as Iranian missiles hit home. Click to enlarge<\/p><\/div>\n Far from turbocharging Netanyahu\u2019s ambitions to grind Iran into a Gaza-grade dust, Trump called time on a war that had only just started. And unlike in Gaza, Netanyahu is in no position to defy the will of the US president. Trump had serious problems of his own in pursuing a venture that half of his party was vociferously against.<\/p>\n For Netanyahu, these past 12 days have been a steep learning curve. If day one proved that Israeli intelligence could achieve the same success in Iran as it did against Hezbollah in Lebanon, by eliminating the first echelon of its military and scientific command – and that Israel could do all of that on its own, without direct US help – by day 10, it was becoming apparent that Israel could achieve none of its war aims without the US joining in.<\/p>\n But before the ink had dried on all the praise Netanyahu garnered in Israel by getting Washington involved in what had been an Israel-only project, Trump turned the tables on his closest ally once again.<\/p>\n He proved to be a one-hit wonder. Without even pausing to assess whether the nuclear enrichment site buried deep underground at Fordo had indeed been disabled, Trump declared mission accomplished.<\/p>\n He did it with a speed that was suspicious, as indeed, from Israel\u2019s view, was his haste in congratulating Iran<\/a> for not killing any of his troops. It was very much like the way he came to a deal with the Houthis in Yemen<\/a> before flying to Riyadh to cash in on the proceeds.<\/p>\n Iran, on the other hand, is emerging from this conflict with strategic gains – although the immediate battering it has sustained, and the hundreds of casualties it has suffered, should not be ignored.<\/p>\n Its air defences failed to bring down a single Israeli warplane, although they appeared to have downed drones<\/a>. Israeli warplanes were free to roam the skies of Iran, and Israeli intelligence once again showed that it had penetrated deep into the Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iranian scientific community.<\/p>\n These were all clear failings. But none proved decisive. In the end, all Iran had to do was, in the words of 1940s-era Britain, \u201ckeep calm and carry on\u201d.<\/p>\n That meant sending a steady stream of missiles towards Israel, knowing that even if all were knocked out of the sky, the entire population was penned up in shelters, and Israel\u2019s precious and expensive supply of Arrow missiles was being consumed.<\/p>\n What Iran thus established was exactly what the\u00a0Israeli economy\u00a0could not handle after 20 months of war: a war of attrition on\u00a0a second front. Netanyahu needed a quick knockout blow, and despite the first day of success, it never came.<\/p>\n Even so, Israel could not stop itself from bombing, after being told not to by Trump. So another not-so-subtle message had to be delivered over the megaphone: \u201cIsrael. Do not drop those bombs. If you do it it is a major violation,\u201d Trump boomed\u00a0in capital letters.<\/p>\n For in the end, this conflict was never about ending a nuclear-bomb programme that never existed (if it had, Iran would have long ago been able to build a bomb).<\/p>\n This conflict was essentially a war between two narratives.<\/p>\n The first is well known. It goes like this.<\/p>\n The Hamas attack on 7 October 2023 was a strategic mistake. No force that Arabs or Iranians can muster can ever match the power of Israel and the US combined, or even Israel armed with the latest generation of weapons.<\/p>\n Israel will always defeat its enemies on the battlefield, as it did in 1948, 1967, 1973, 1978 and 1982. The only option for Arabs is to recognise Israel on its terms, which means to trade with it, and leave Palestinian<\/a> statehood for another day.<\/p>\n This view is held with variations, and unofficially, by all Arab leaders and their military and security chiefs.<\/p>\nWeathering the storm<\/strong><\/h2>\n
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<\/a>Turning the tables<\/strong><\/h2>\n
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<\/a>War of narratives<\/strong><\/h2>\n